PA-Sen: More Ominous Signs for Specter

[ccharles000]

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4148

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (12/8-10, likely voters):

Arlen Specter (R-inc): 43
Pat Toomey (R): 28
Undecided: 29
(MoE: ±5%)

Chris Matthews (D): 24
Patrick Murphy (D): 19
Allyson Schwartz (D): 15
Undecided: 42
(MoE: ±5%)
Chris Matthews (D): 28
Patrick Murphy (D): 21
Undecided: 51

Chris Matthews (D): 30
Allyson Schwartz (D): 18
Undecided: 52

Patrick Murphy (D): 23
Allyson Schwartz (D): 20
Undecided: 57



Chris Matthews (D): 44
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±4%)
Patrick Murphy (D): 36
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 48

Allyson Schwartz (D): 35
Arlen Specter (R-inc): 49

Chris Matthews (D): 46
Pat Toomey (R): 35

Patrick Murphy (D): 44
Pat Toomey (R): 36

Allyson Schwartz (D): 42
Pat Toomey (R): 36

Every possible configuration of the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race you can imagine is here, courtesy of Research 2000 for Daily Kos. Arlen Specter can't be liking what he's seeing. Thanks to Rasmussen last week, we already knew that Specter was vulnerable against Chris Matthews (they found Specter up 46-43). R2K finds an even closer race in that configuration, with Reps. Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz trailing Specter by 10+ points but holding him below 50%. (Consider this mostly a measure of name recognition at this point; Matthews has a national platform, but Murphy and Schwartz are little known outside their districts and right now are basically "generic D.")

But guess who else is holding Specter below 50%? Pat Toomey, who looks to be taking the controls for yet another kamikaze mission by the Club for Growth. If the free-market fundamentalist Toomey wins the primary, the general is effectively over, with even Murphy and Schwartz thumping him in head-to-head matchups.

Considering that Specter won the primary against Toomey in 2004 by only 2 points (with a slightly different-looking Pennsylvania GOP, where many of the remaining moderates hadn't yet jumped ship), Toomey winning the primary this time is a distinct possibility, given a Republican base with an even purer, less diluted conservatism. Specter pulls in only 43% in the primary matchup, which points to the balancing act he'll have to negotiate in the next two years: either burnish his RINO credentials and support most of the Obama agenda in order to survive the 2010 general, or join the southern GOP rump's obstructionist efforts in order to survive the 2010 primary. I believe the technical term for such a situation is "damned if you do, damned if you don't."

[Gman]

1. I believe many Democrats crossed over and voted in the GOP primary

in 04 to vote against Toomey. Later, the AFL-CIO endorsed Spector in the GE. I have no problem with Spector. He's a reliable vote for labor when it's needed. If a Senator votes with labor, just how bad can he be? I think that makes a senator OK in my book.

And for at least the next 4 years and likely 6 years, Spector won't have the threats and intimidation from his party to worry about. HE likely wouldn't even run for reelection again in 6 years, or 16.

[AllentownJake]

2. The problem for Specter in 2010

Is there might be a democratic primary of carpet bagging Matthews and some local Democrat to be named and a Gubernatorial Primary of a Fast Eddie succesor vs. someone outside of the Rendell machine.

In other words the dems will be to buys fighting each other to give a shit about what happens to Specter and if he survives the primary.

In 2004 there were no competive races in the primary for federal office statewide.

[WinkyDink]

3. Given his health, maybe Spector isn't thinking about 2010.

[ShortnFiery]

4. Not Chris Matthews! I'd donate to whom ever's capable of beating him in his democratic primary.

Tweety is only a hair better than a republican. OMG, I can opt to NOT tune into "Hairballs" but it would be horrific to observe Tweets spewing his bipolar reasoning from the Senate Floor. The Hor-ror ... Hor ... ror. :nuke: