Help me with some Franken/Coleman math

[Hassin Bin Sober]

I know Franken is within a couple (5?) votes with a bunch (?) more "challenged" ballots to count.

It appears Franken will pull ahead by the end of this portion of the re-count............

But.......


It's my understanding the "withdrawn" challenges have not been added to either candidate's totals. It's also my understanding Franken withdrew MORE challenges............does this mean Coleman can regain lost ground when more previously withdrawn challenges are added to his totals?


Am I missing something?

[NMDemDist2]

1. I don't think so

didn't they count Fraken's challenges first and now they are counting Coleman's (mostly bogus) challenges now

I think....

[Hassin Bin Sober]

4. That's correct but there are withdrawn challenges that haven't been added to the totals.

I guess my question is: Are we seeing a "net" loss or gain assuming everything else remains the same - like they tallied the first phase of the recount on the StarTrib site?

Or do I need to go drink a Martini and relax?

[tekisui]

2. Withdrawn challenges are not capable of changing the count.

They are as they were originally counted. That is my understanding.

We have a couple or few hundred more of the ballots Coleman challenged. Most of these will go to Franken. Some will be tossed as over votes, meaning more than one candidate was marked and intention of voter is unclear.

Then, they have some absentee ballots that will be counted.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

5. I think you are correct.

I can take a chill pill.

I have been following this thing pretty closely except for yesterday and today so I wasn't sure of the tally methods.

I know, during the first phase, the StarTrib was doing a net gain or loss count assuming everything else remained the same.

[creeksneakers2]

6. I disagree

That had an article about this at that Minnesota paper. The withdrawn challenge ballots were never counted. They couldn't be counted while they were challenged because they didn't know where to put them. Now that challenges are withdrawn,(exept the ones where Coleman rechallenged some 200 withdrawn challenge ballots) the votes should go to whoever the local level boards ruled they should go to. But somebody has to count them. The Minnesota paper says its still too confusing because challenges are being added and withdrawn. The State hasn't touched them yet.

I think its possible for a well disciplined group from DU to count them. There's enough information on the web to do it, maybe.

Added:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/36235224.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUnciaec8O7EyUsl

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. The trib paper has called it for Franken

with 87 votes

So for all those who say why bother voting? Here is another example of WHY you do it

[wellstone dem]

7. This is what is happening

The 5 or 2 vote difference is according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune Projection.

#1 The lead is likely to grow because almost all challenges left are challenges by Coleman, which means these board is likely to award these challenges to Franken. For example, today the Board reviewed approximately 480 Coleman challenges. They were awarded as follows: 22 Coleman, 370 Franken, 85 other. (Franken challenges went 231 Coleman, 66 Franken, 113 other).

#2 There are many challenges that have been withdrawn, these votes are not reflected in the Secretary of State total. But the Star Tribune has been asking people to vote on all the original challenges on their website. Apparently more than 2 million people have voted ???. In any case, you can look at the accuracy of this voting process because the Strib is showing each ballot ruled on by the Board, and is comparing the vote to the Strib voters. The lay voters have been very accurate. So for the withdrawn ballots, the Strib is applying the vote among its lay voters.

#3 The absentee ballots that were incorrectly excluded will now be added,it appears this will be between 1,000 and 1,600 ballots, which nobody knows how they will be fall, as the envelopes were not opened.