Franken's lead dwindling...up 240 now...down from 285...

[S_E_Fudd]

He needs to be at 400 or so at the end of this challenge process or he won't make it...

[UnrepentantUnitarian]

1. ...based upon...?

[S_E_Fudd]

4. Franken withdrew about 385 more challenges than Coleman...

So when those are counted Coleman will make up an additional 385 or so...

[grantcart]

7. The withdrawn challenges have been counted

You could hear the board say "On the the withdrawn challenge I move that the ballot be designated to Franken (or Coleman"


All ballots where the only question was voter intent have been ruled on.


Now they are deciding on Blue and Green file ballots



Blue = challenged ballots without duplicates


Green = ballots with special circumstances


There are a lot more Blue than Green.



That should then leave only the improperly refused absentee ballots which are rumored to be about 1500

[S_E_Fudd]

8. No...those are challenges withdrawn since the beginning of the count...

By the canvas board. There are 5000+ that were withdrawn prior to this review that have yet to be counted...

Look here under the "Remaining" column

http://senaterecount.startribune.com/ballots/

[hlthe2b]

16. Well, the Star Tribune has taken that into account with projection:

Ballot Challenge projection 2,981 3,245 507 0 1,211,916 1,211,992 Franken by 76


What is it you know that they don't? :shrug:

[S_E_Fudd]

20. I wasn't commenting on the projection...

I was commenting that Franken probably needed a certain # to overcome Coleman's probable lead in withdrawn challenges...

I don't know if they have completed the process of reviewing the challenges

[Alexander]

9. Coleman's challenges are mostly frivolous.

Your 385 number is pulled out of thin air.

Just because Coleman has more challenges standing does not mean that they are valid.

[S_E_Fudd]

13. These are not challenges...

These are withdrawn challenges...


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/franken-appears-likely-to-lead-after.html

[Stargleamer]

15. The 385 figure comes from here. . .

"I then have Franken losing a net of about 385 ballots once withdrawn challenges are processed, as Franken has more withdrawn challenges that Coleman, most of which are Coleman ballots. This would leave him with a small surplus."

<http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/franken-appears-likely-to-lead-after.html>

[shraby]

2. I was just watching and Franken was at 250 when

the board adjourned until Monday.
Please post your reasoning about having to lead by 400. Where did you get the figure?

[S_E_Fudd]

6. 400 actually...

There are about 5000+ withdrawn challenges that have not yet been counted...

Those are going to favor COleman by about 385 (Franken withdrew more)

[Alexander]

11. You keep repeating this number that is not accurate.

Just because Coleman has 385 more challenges doesn't mean they will automatically be counted in his favor.

[S_E_Fudd]

12. Not my count...

That is Nate Silvers estimate - not mine


http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/franken-appears-likely-to-lead-after.html

[Alexander]

17. Nate Silver even said it was "fuzzy, fuzzy math".

I'm not sure guessing games are going to resolve anything.

[jakem]

3. what do you base this number upon?

[S_E_Fudd]

5. There are still 5000+ withdrawn challenges...

Those are going to favor Coleman by about 385. Franken withdrew more than COleman did...

[Alexander]

10. Not necessarily.

If the rest of Coleman's challenges are as frivolous as his earlier challenges, he doesn't have a prayer.

[S_E_Fudd]

14. One response was enough...

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/12/franken-appears-likely-to-lead-after.html

[Alexander]

18. Apparently not.

Nate Silver admitted his math was beyond fuzzy and there's a good chance he's wrong.

[S_E_Fudd]

21. You are acting like I want Franken to lose...

Nothing I have said is innaccurate...

chill out

[Alexander]

22. Not at all. It is simply a guessing game at this point.

Even Nate Silver admits it.

[backscatter712]

19. Still plenty of ballots to be counted.

And now that we're through a bunch of them, I'd say that Nate Silver's and the Star Tribune's projections have likely been refined to the point where they're going to hold within a few votes.

Oh, and there's Franken's own worst-case-scenario projection that states that if all challenges were rejected, Franken would still be ahead by four votes.

Lookin' good for Franken (knock on wood...)

[grantcart]

23. You are correct about old withdrawn challenges not yet been counted

Your 400 seems to be old data as the Star Tribune has added all of the withdrawn challenges back in (because they are withdrawn challenges the result is already known) and they conclude that he will end up with + 78 before the absentee ballots are counted.

It would seem that your basic approach is correct but that Franken stands to lose a net 173 when all of the other ballots are added together.

I am guessing that the difference between your figures and the Star Tribune's is an examination of the remaining "Blue and Green" file ballots.


There is actually no doubt as to the guidelines that the canvassing panel is using as the precedents on the different markings are well established and no longer controversial, so the Star Tribune numbers have to be considered the authentic source as they have copies of and have examined every ballot in question (and put them on their web site for anybody to see).

[snowbear]

24. Does anyone know if they'll start counting again on Monday?

.
.

We're pullin' for you Al.

~~~~~

[creeksneakers2]

25. Lots here have the story wrong

There are about 5,000 withdrawn challenge ballots which have not yet been counted. The canvassing board will start counting them on Monday and expect to finish by Tuesday.

There is no way to just guess which way they'll go because a challenge could be against a vote that was awarded to the opponent, in which case the withdrawn challenge would result in a vote for an opponent, or the challenge could be against a designation that the vote was for neither Franken or Coleman, in which case the vote would fall out of the count. The other guy having more remaining withdrawn challenge ballots doesn't insure anything.

Since the withdrawn challenge ballots are listed on the Minnesota Secretary of State's web page, it would be easy for anybody with the list of challenges and their original vote assignments to count the whole thing now. So far, nobody has bothered.

Al Franken says they've looked at it all and will win by 35-50 votes. But they obviously didn't count all the ballots, or they'd know whether it was 35 or 50.

Oh, and the Star Tribune projection everybody talks about, that's based on a unscientific survey of readers, not much more.

[snowbear]

26. Thanks for the info creeksneakers...

.
.

So Tuesday we should know much more than we do now.

Go Al Go! ~~~

[avaistheone1]

27. I hope Al makes it. We truly need another progressive vote in the US Senate.