http://www.swingstateproject.comResearch 2000 for Daily Kos (12/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Lisa Murkowski (R-inc): 31
Sarah Palin (R): 55
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±5%)
As Markos reminds us, the polling in Alaska this past cycle (including Research 2000's) was abysmal, so we need to view these numbers with appropriate skepticism. Nonetheless, this is a matchup I'd want to see almost no matter what. There's nothing like a top-dollar GOP food fight to warm my heart.
R2K also tested a bunch of other gov & sen matchups, but we're hamstrung by the lack of Dem candidates with any real name recognition. It's hard to feel too optimistic for the Alaska Division of Team Blue at this early juncture. But who knows? Maybe an ultra-nasty Republican primary battle could jar this seat loose for us.