10 Bush pardons to watch for

[cali]

By JOSH GERSTEIN | 1/18/09 8:13 PM EST Text Size:


George W. Bush has shown few signs he plans to indulge in a frenzy of last-minute pardons.
Photo: AP

As the clock ticks down on his presidency, George W. Bush has shown few signs he plans to indulge in the frenzy of last-minute pardons that marked Bill Clinton’s final hours in the Oval Office.

But Bush could quickly leap back into the spotlight in the next two days if he issues a blanket pardon immunizing CIA and military interrogators, as well as their bosses, from criminal prosecution over harsh treatment of prisoners from the war on terror.

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Here is a list of 10 cases that could come under review by Bush, and Politico’s look at the odds Bush will wield his pardon pen:

1. Pardon Prospects: Military and CIA interrogators of war-on-terror prisoners

Status: Could face investigation and prosecution for use of harsh tactics in post-9/11 interrogations. Bush has signaled sympathy with those called upon to “connect the dots” after the terror attack, and the incoming Barack Obama administration has given mixed signals, with Obama himself downplaying prosecutions but his choice for attorney general Eric Holder seeming open to the idea – which could lead Bush to act.

Pros: Some lawyers doubt charges could ever be brought or convictions obtained because of Justice Department opinions permitting aggressive tactics; might be seen as buck-stops-here gesture by Bush.

Cons: Likely to require a “blanket” pardon which describes conduct, but does not name individuals; might be hard to craft language or justify pardon which immunizes some harsh tactics without overturning convictions for prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib; certain to trigger outrage among liberals and inflame anti-American feeling abroad. Pardons expert P.S. Ruckman Jr. of Rock Valley College in Illinois downplays “the idea of this big, last-minute, surprise, blanket, turbo-amnesty for war crimes.”

Politico Odds: 4 to 1

2. Pardon Prospect: Former Chief of Staff to Vice President Cheney, I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby Jr.

Status: Convicted in 2007 of obstruction of justice, false statements, and perjury in investigation into leak of identity of CIA officer Valerie Plame. Sentenced to two-and-a-half years in prison, two years probation and $250,000 fine; prison sentence commuted by Bush before service. A Libby pardon has strong support among conservatives. “Scooter Libby was not guilty of the original crime trumpeted by the media and the Democrats for campaign purposes. He was not responsible for the leak…..It’s a travesty, it seems to me,” said Dick Carlson, a former Voice of America chief and ambassador.

Pros: Vice President Dick Cheney views Libby as loyal; disbarment and lack of employment could be seen as punishment; on leaving office, presidents Clinton and Bush (41) also pardoned senior officials

Cons: Could remind public of Bush’s failure to dismiss those accused of leaking Plame’s identity; risk of public outcry for leaving full pardon for final days of presidency when it could have been done sooner.
Politico Odds: 1 to 2

3. Pardon Prospect: Former Attorney General Alberto Gonzales

Status: A special prosecutor based in Connecticut, Nora Dannehy, has been assigned to review whether Gonzales misled Congress or otherwise interfered with inquiries into the firings of U.S. attorneys. He’s also being investigated for allegedly preparing false after the fact notes of 2004 congressional briefing about warrantless surveillance. Gonzales has denied wrongdoing, but lacks a solid job and could still run up big legal bills trying to ward off a prosecution.

Pros: Gonzales a longtime loyal Bush aide; arguably punished by lack of significant employment since resigning under pressure in 2007

Cons: Pardon could be seen as self-serving since it was Bush who reportedly asked Gonzales to memorialize 2004 Congressional meeting; will prompt charges of cronyism.

Politico Odds: 1 to 1.

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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0109/17595.html

[Ian David]

1. If you pardon someone, they can't "plead the 5th."

Which means there would be nothing to stop them from testifying and pointing a finger of blame up the foodchain.

[BlooInBloo]

4. Rock, meet hard place.

[grannie4peace]

2. i hear one of schrubs flunkies say they will be made public tomorrow

[Optical.Catalyst]

3. Pardons for the border guards Ignacio Ramos and Jose Compean are a shoe in

It will appease the reich wing talk radio tools and shore up the rabid base.

Other than that, it is probably the correct thing to do too.

[rateyes]

5. 11. Ted Stevens

Rateyes odds: 2:1