President Obama, please don't appoint Judd Gregg as commerce sec. It is not worth the trade off!

[RiverStone]

This does not make sense.

If President Obama appoints Sen. Judd Gregg to the commerce secretary post, the conventional wisdom is that New Hampshire Gov. John Lynch would then appoint a Democrat to replace him in the Senate.

He might, but as the story linked below suggests - Lynch could go either way. I would assume that President Obama would have a personal assurance from Lynch that a Dem senator would be appointed. Yet even with that, I don't think it is worth the trade off. This could have BIG consequences for the next election and many subsequent ones.

Read what Gregg, as a republican in the commerce post, would have control over:

But as commerce secretary, Gregg would also have huge sway over the 2010 Census that lawmakers will use to redraw congressional districts to reflect states' populations. States such as New York and Ohio anticipate losing House seats; those Census numbers also will determine how many electoral votes states have in future president contests.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090131/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/gregg_commerce

Even assuming all fall in line and we get a filibuster proof majority, is this worth the trade off? Having a rethug control redistricting as commerce secretary seems like a very dumb idea. How much potential electoral votes might we lose as a result? We don't even know for sure if Al Franken is a lock, not to mention can we be assured every Democrat will join in a vote to equal 60?

At first glace, I don't get the logic of President Obama's consideration of Gregg. It's really too bad we lost out on having Bill Richardson take the post, but certainly there are other Dems out there worthy of consideration!

I'm open to being enlightened if I've missed something here...

[AtomicKitten]

1. A filibuster-proof majority is VERY attractive. n/t

[RiverStone]

4. Yes, but what if redistricting costs us other House or Senate seats down the road?

I'll confess to not having a deep understanding of this, and my disdain for anything rethuglican is so vast that maybe I'm not thinking clearly on this ---It just seems like the upside is based on assumptions (a future uncertain) whereas if Gregg is commerce secretary, we already know he marched in lockstep at McCain rallies. That is a known.

[AtomicKitten]

7. Obama is the final arbiter on policy so that should assuage your concern in that regard.

I'm not happy about putting another Republican in the cabinet, the only upside IMO is if it results in a filibuster-proof majority. Still there is chatter behind the scenes about Lynch appointing a GOP placeholder, and that's just bullshit. Lynch should appoint a Dem because he can. If we learned nothing else from the aftermath of this election, all bets are off when it comes to these replacement appointments.

[RiverStone]

31. Mitch McConnell, puke Sen. from KY said on Face The Nation this a.m.

...that Gregg told him if he accepts the post, that Lynch will appoint another puke in his place. So there goes the upside. No filibuster.

Believe me, on balance I'm thrilled with Obama --- he just does not need to be soooooo bipartisan that he gives the pukes more power. Let em sit at the table, but it is OUR HOUSE eh?

[BlooInBloo]

9. "I'll confess to not having a deep understanding of this" - Excellent opening....

Seeing as how states (the political unit from which come senators) cannot be "redistricted".

[RiverStone]

12. If not a senator, than what about a House slot --- or electoral votes?

Per the OP:

But as commerce secretary, Gregg would also have huge sway over the 2010 Census that lawmakers will use to redraw congressional districts to reflect states' populations. States such as New York and Ohio anticipate losing House seats; those Census numbers also will determine how many electoral votes states have in future president contests.

Obviously, there is something we could lose having a puke at the wheel. Do you believe this concern has no merit?

[BlooInBloo]

16. The only way the concern has merit is if one already believes that Obama is a fucking idiot.

Hence, the concern has no merit.

Noted, however.

[RiverStone]

18. Obama is a brilliant man who appreciates being questioned...

By his constituency.

Only fucking idiots march in lockstep.

[cali]

27. how can redistricting lose us a Senate seat?

Each state has two Senators. That doesn't change just because of redistricting. And some blue states are going to lose Congressional seats no matter what. Furthermore, if he's Commerce Sec, Judd will be carrying out directives from President Obama.

[SoxFan]

17. You won't get one

You'd have Sen. Walter Peterson, which is basically another Arlen Specter.

[AtomicKitten]

21. It's possible and we can dream, your Magic 8 ball prediction notwithstanding. n/t

[merh]

32. But not a guarantee

-snip-

* New Hampshire's Democratic governor, John Lynch, may name a Democrat to replace Gregg, which could give the party 60 seats in the Senate, enough to clear Republican procedural hurdles. But Lynch may appoint a Republican to avoid a backlash about handing Democrats a stranglehold on the Senate.

* If the governor replaces Gregg with a Republican, expect the new senator to be a moderate who ends up frequently voting with Democrats.

-snip-

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKN3037548620090130

[bluestateguy]

2. If we actually get 60 seats in the Senate, it's worth it

If the governor will appoint a Democrat, then it is worth it.

Any decision Gregg makes in his job can be overturned by the White House.

[RiverStone]

5. If, if , if....I would hope Lynch promises a Dem to Obama before the move

At least behind closed doors.

[Thrill]

11. If he didn't get that promise. This move makes no sense

[RiverStone]

13. Bingo!

At the very least, he needs that assurance.

[backscatter712]

19. Exactly. Obama thinks twenty moves ahead.

He wouldn't even make a peep about this unless he'd already plotted his strategery with Gov. Lynch and knows he's on board.

[sarge43]

20. I can't see Lynch pissing off the party by appointing a Repub.

The NH Dem party now has serious game, thanks in part to Doc Dean's 50 state strategy. Outside of the selectperson of Frogjump Notch, Gregg's the last Repub office holder of any significance left in this state.

Lynch is a first term gov. If he's interested in a second term, he'll have to make nice. Plus, I wouldn't be surprise if he doesn't have his eyes on that Senate seat. So, appoint a tame, plays well with others Dem to the senate (and yes, something nice for him/her after the 2010 elections) and make gov points until it's time to declare in two years.

Gregg won't be a problem at Commerce. President Obama et al will keep him on very short leash. He'll have to get a permission slip to use the can.

Of course, the question is what does Jughead think about this. He's gotta know if he accepts a cabinet appointment, it's political castration. However, unless things do a hundred and eighty up here, his chances at another senate term are little better than a sunbather's on Mt Wash right now.

It's gotta suck to be him. :nopity:

[Alexander]

34. Incorrect. Lynch is in his third term, not his first term.

He has an approval rating in the 70-80% range, among the best of any governor in the country.

Lynch can do what he wants.

[sarge43]

35. Right and right.

My bad. Still haunted by the memory of that jerk Benson. Even more reason for Lynch to consider a senate run; he'd crush any Repub. Plus, he'd be a great senator.

[TheCowsCameHome]

3. I'll take what's behind door #1. Draining the GOP is very appealing.

Drip by drip, the GOP will swirl down the drain, with Capt. O in charge of poking holes in their lifeboats.

[PBS Poll-435]

6. I have yet to see the day that redistricting costs us a Senate seat.

nt.

[Bucky]

8. Hold up. The Commerce Department runs the Census, but the Sec'y can't politically manipulate it

It's not like he's just turning the whole Dept of Commerce over to the neocons. Take a deep breath there. There will be plenty of Democratic political nominees and career bureaucrats within the department to keep the Census process from being politicized--not to mention the fact that possible-Secretary Gregg's boss will still be President Obama, whose core policy is the depoliticization of the bureaucracy.

Obama committed himself to bipartisan governance and appointing the occasional Republican to a post where he can't do much harm is a very smart way to get that done.

[RiverStone]

10. Shrub and his minions mastered the art of political manipulation..

For nothing more than power and greed.

If this comes to pass Bucky, I hope your right regarding the safeguards that would be in place to ensure the census process would be free of similar political bullshit.

Ultimately, I think President Obama is a brilliant man and on balance, I trust his decisions. Though bipartisan governance does not mean we give the pukes any advantage. IMO, it means we give them an occasional seat at the table, but it is still OUR HOUSE.

[RedEmpress]

14. Gregg is as conservative as than George W. Bush

Judd:


Bush:


http://www.ontheissues.org/george_w__bush.htm

[rocktivity]

15. A REPUBICAN as COMMERCE secretary?

That's like putting Hugh Hefner in charge of abstinence!

:eyes:
rocknation

[kingpin8399]

22. If I was Gregg I would TAKE IT, hes OUT as senator after the mid-terms, look out for yourself!!

[Bluerthanblue]

26. wish I thought there was real hope of that-

Gregg has had a pretty easy ride keeping his seat so far. Unless the challenger was someone outstanding, I don't think he's going to worry to much- he's got name recognition, is native, and to be honest, people don't really pay close enough attention to what he really stands for.
He's got some history of defending the environment (when it suits him). Other than that he's a jerk- (imo) but a jerk who is frustratingly hard to unseat.

:shrug:

[Hippo_Tron]

23. Oh come on, you really don't think they've thought of this already?

Obama is Gregg's boss. He's not going to let him structure the 2010 census in a way that gives some huge advantage to the GOP. It also matters more about who controls the legislatures after 2010 than the aggregate number of seats that each state has.

[gmudem]

24. I think Obama knows what he's doing

I assume that he will keep very close tabs on what all of his cabinet secretaries are doing policy wise. And I would assume he will be keeping even closer tabs on the few Republicans secretaries that he has, and if Gregg tries to pull some kind of Republican trick, Obama will know about it and Gregg will be out of a job.

This post seems to assume that Gregg will be able to do whatever he wants as Commerce Secretary, and there is no way that is possible.

[backscatter712]

25. I think Obama's thought everything through.

For one, even though Gregg's a Republican and pretty anti-union, if he does become the Commerce Secretary, he ends up working directly for Obama, and has to follow orders.

For another thing, I'll bet that Obama's already thought this through and went over all the moves and countermoves with Axelrod, and has already talked strategy with Gov. Lynch, so he already knows what will happen if he pulls the trigger, and he has a good idea who will be appointed in Gregg's place.

Obama doesn't do things like this on the spur of the moment, and he doesn't take risks unless he knows the odds and has taken steps to manage the risks.

[Blasphemer]

28. I like it

I'm weary whenever Obama's "brilliance" is invoked as a justification for some questionable decisions. However, I think this is a genuinely brilliant political calculation. As mentioned in previous posts, there's no way this would happen without certain assurances so it's pretty much a win-win - Obama's attempts at bipartisanship help to maintain his popularity and a popular President gets the votes he needs.

[merh]

33. But Gregg says he won't take the post if a repug is not named his

replacement

Senator: Appointment wouldn't affect Senate makeup
By PHILIP ELLIOTT - Associated Press Writer


WASHINGTON -- Republican Sen. Judd Gregg has told colleagues that if he becomes commerce secretary, his replacement would affiliate with the GOP, denying Democrats' total dominance, his party leader said Sunday.

That would require an agreement involving President Barack Obama, who would appoint Gregg to his Cabinet, and New Hampshire Democratic Gov. John Lynch, who would name Gregg's successor to the Senate. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky suggested such an arrangement was in the works.

"Sen. Gregg has assured me that if this were to happen, if it were to happen, it would not change the makeup of the Senate," McConnell said on "Face the Nation" on CBS. "In other words, whoever is appointed to replace him would caucus with Senate Republicans, so I think it would have no impact on the balance of power in the Senate."

-snip-

http://www.sunherald.com/395/story/1108016.html

[AlinPA]

36. You can bet that if the parties were switched here, a repig governor

would appoint an rpig senator replacement, even after promising not to do it.

[merh]

37. but you can't guarantee that with a dem gov

especially after the blago publicity and the NY senator mess

[Zynx]

29. The Census is not manipulated by the Commerce Secretary. That's really silly.

Have you worked in government?

[AZBlue]

30. You're concerns ignore that Obama would still be Gregg's boss.