What the centrists have wrought

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

What the centrists have wrought

I’m still working on the numbers, but I’ve gotten a fair number of requests for comment on the Senate version of the stimulus.

The short answer: to appease the centrists, a plan that was already too small and too focused on ineffective tax cuts has been made significantly smaller, and even more focused on tax cuts.

According to the CBO’s estimates, we’re facing an output shortfall of almost 14% of GDP over the next two years, or around $2 trillion. Others, such as Goldman Sachs, are even more pessimistic. So the original $800 billion plan was too small, especially because a substantial share consisted of tax cuts that probably would have added little to demand. The plan should have been at least 50% larger.

Now the centrists have shaved off $86 billion in spending — much of it among the most effective and most needed parts of the plan. In particular, aid to state governments, which are in desperate straits, is both fast — because it prevents spending cuts rather than having to start up new projects — and effective, because it would in fact be spent; plus state and local governments are cutting back on essentials, so the social value of this spending would be high. But in the name of mighty centrism, $40 billion of that aid has been cut out.

My first cut says that the changes to the Senate bill will ensure that we have at least 600,000 fewer Americans employed over the next two years.

The real question now is whether Obama will be able to come back for more once it’s clear that the plan is way inadequate. My guess is no. This is really, really bad.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/02/07/what-the-centrists-have-wrought/

[Blue_In_AK]

1. I love Paul Krugman, but

he scares the s*** out of me.

[totodeinhere]

2. Let's wait for the final version of the bill before we jump to conclusions. n/t

[JohnnieGordon]

3. Rachel warned us of this..

While everyone else was just sitting around slurping down more of their fucking kool-aid.

[Jennicut]

4. Right. So how does Krugman propose we get the Centrists on board

a bigger stimulus bill. I like Krugman but is his insights really all that useful right now? We know its not what we want but how to get it to how we want it is the question.

[chill_wind]

11. Lock up Rahm, for one. Collins (R) was bragging in WAPO about

what he did for them to get the thing chopped down even more.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/06/AR2009020602097.html?wprss=rss_print

Obama endorsed the moderates' effort and brought its leaders -- Sens. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) -- to the White House to discuss their proposed cuts. White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel attended the final meetings in Reid's office last night to work out lingering differences. Before Emanuel arrived, Collins said, Democrats were advocating $63 billion in cuts. "Then Rahm got involved, and a much better proposal came forward," she said.

[Doremus]

21. I loathe that man more and more.

Anybody can negotiate by giving away the farm. It takes actual skill to do it properly.

Which is to say, who the hell needs Rahm Emanuel? Nobody on our side.

[Mojorabbit]

13. They are useful

because he has a large audience.

[depakid]

5. Krugman was more concise as to so called "centricism" on the Scarbough clip

You don't build a bridge halfway across an economic chasm.

[OhioBlue]

6. there will be more bills

FDR didn't pass everything that he wanted in one bill. There were a series of bills. There will be now too.

This is my opinion - but I really thing that President Obama and top level Dems and economists have an overall plan. They know that they cannot get everything passed at once. They are politicians and they know how politicians work. They have reached a compromise to get this bill passed, one that they can live with. They will propose additional bills and additional language and programs into other bills such as appropriations, transportation, etc.

[quiller4]

8. This is just the first in a series of bills

FDRs efforts started much more modestly. Those who expect everything from one bill are asking for disappointment

[Two Americas]

12. you are defending the critics

The very reason why FDR was able to do more was because of powerful pressure and criticism from outside of the party. It was vastly more organized and militant and radical than anything we have today.

You cannot shoot for a compromise - which the New Deal was. A compromises can only come when there are two sides aggressively fighting. The opposition isn't compromising, they are calling our bluff, and we are caving.

People here are intolerant of criticism and dissent, and are demanding that we all remain passive and silent and trust the leadership. That isn't what happened during FDR's administration - far, far from it. FDR welcomed pressure. He said "if you want me to do something, force me to do it." Good leaders know that they can do nothing without public pressure, and there will never be public pressure if people succeed in shouting down and silencing critics.

If people want this administration to fail, the best possible way to achieve that is to continue to call for an end to dissent and criticism.

We rabble house > that builds and focuses public pressure > the government responds > the administration succeeds.

We demand loyalty and silence > the public remains confused and weak > the government takes the safe course > the administration fails.

That is how things work in a representative democracy.

[Uzybone]

7. So what are we to do apart from whine in the papers?

do we have to wait to 2010 to get 2 more democrats in the senate?

Krugman and his allies in the media need to paint a big scarlet F on the specific republicans who have fucked this thing up. The whole nation needs to know their names. Blaming centrism doesn't cut it. There is no centrist party.

[chill_wind]

9. self-delete to move post

[Zodiak]

14. With the centrists running off with the Republicans and giving away the farm

We don't effectively have a Democratic party, either.

[chill_wind]

10. This the very worst and scariest part, I think:

"Now the centrists have shaved off $86 billion in spending — much of it among the most effective and most needed parts of the plan. In particular, aid to state governments, which are in desperate straits, is both fast — because it prevents spending cuts rather than having to start up new projects — and effective, because it would in fact be spent; plus state and local governments are cutting back on essentials, so the social value of this spending would be high. But in the name of mighty centrism, $40 billion of that aid has been cut out."

[lostnotforgotten]

15. Remember That Obama Is A Centrist As Well - Time To Hold His Feet To The Populist Fire

eom

[uponit7771]

16. Obama is left of what this country has had in the last 30 years, don't know if centrist is fair

[FatDave]

18. What you say is absolutely true.

But we really need him to be a little farther to the left than where he is. There may be times when liberal fiscal policy is not the answer, but this is not one of those times.

[Raineyb]

20. The center has been pulled so far to the right that a centrist looks like he's further left.

Obama is nowhere near as far left as some people have been painting him. And he's certainly not as far left as the moron Republicans have been griping about.

Regards

[LWolf]

17. Good example of why I'm not a fan of centrism.

Or centrists.

I hear that the House plans to reintroduce some of the items cut. I hope so.

[anonymous171]

19. I bet Krugman regrets attacking the original stimulus plan. nt

[DCBob]

22. You have to govern from the center to get anything done...

90% of the Senate bill is the same as the House bill. Larry Summers seemed okay with this morning on the talks shows. Get it passed and move on. If it is clear something more needs to be added later then add it.

[cascadiance]

23. We need to demand they govern from the PEOPLE's center, and not the CORPORATE center!

We have mostly corporatists in the "center" now MASQUERADING as representatives of the people's will.

This is the way that corporate power still has hegemony over us...