|
Edited on Wed Feb-11-09 09:12 AM by SanchoPanza
But 2010, in all likelihood, will not be 1994. Even if ARRA and TARP do not do as well as expected.
For one, Reich ignores the scandals in the House that the RCCC were able to capitalize on in 1993 and 1994, plus 40 years of institutional Democratic control upon which they could argue the majority becoming complacent and corrupt. While the 1994 midterms were in large part a referendum on Bill Clinton, it needs to be incorporated into this larger context.
Republicans also had a plan to run on and large constituencies to tap in 1994. For the moment, not so much. They haven't been out of power long enough so that a conservative manifesto like the Contract with America will resonate with any reasonably sized sector or the public. And much of their victory in 1994 came from their (at the time) more recent outreach to white evangelicals and anti-Mexico radicals, who went with Perot two years earlier. If I remember correctly, "Voted for Perot" was the largest percentile of people who voted for Republicans in 1994 (largely because of the Mexico bailout), followed by evangelicals. Aside from business leaders, who are now solidly behind ARRA, that's now almost the entirety of the Republican base. The moderate Republicans don't have representation in the party anymore. They all voted for moderate Democrats like Merkley and Shaheen.
Second, there is a rather large split in the Republican party that was not present in 1994, namely between state and congressional officials. The Republican Governors Association has taken "no official position" on the stimulus package largely because the 22 current Republican governors are feeling the political brunt of the recession, and six have publicly supported ARRA to some extent. The same is true for Republican state legislators, as well as traditional Republican interest groups like the Chamber of Commerce, who are screaming at DC Republicans to get on board the stimulus train.
Just look where Obama has been in the past few days, and pay attention to where he's going to go.
Indiana: Gov. Mitch Daniels, Republican. Has some "misgivings" about the stimulus package, but hopes it will pass and work.
Florida: Gov. Charlie Christ, Republican. Full fledged supporter of ARRA.
I'd lay good money on the table that the next stop will be in Connecticut, California, Vermont, or Utah. Maybe Arizona, too. All Republican governors of those states have issued varying degrees of support for ARRA, with Rell of Connecticut probably being the most vocal (western Connecticut is being doubly hit by the recession and the meltdown in the financial services sector). Even opponents of the stimulus, like Sanford in SC, are facing stern rebukes from mayors and legislators of their own party. And governors who are hoping they can reach a budget arrangement that doesn't count on any assistance from Washington, like Pawlenty in Minnesota, are deluding themselves.
The one charge Republicans can levy against Obama and the Democratic Party is that they aren't being sufficiently bipartisan. That's all they have, having no ideas of their own that can't easily be discredited. Bringing in state-level Republicans cripples that argument, as does appointing more Republicans to cabinet-level positions than both Bushes and Reagan appointed Democrats. Combined. Go to the recent Gallup poll, where Democrats are beating Republicans on the stimulus issue by an almost two to one margin.
This is simply a public relations war that the GOP cannot win unless the administration on congressional majorities screw up royally.
|