Kennedy will not vote on stimulus; stimulus passage not guaranteed.

[Barack_America]

Reid Looking for GOP Votes
Posted: 02:39 PM ET

From CNN's Dana Bash and Ted Barrett

WASHINGTON (CNN) – CNN has learned that one day after securing an agreement on a giant economic stimulus bill that is expected to pass narrowly with the votes of three moderate Republicans, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is calling other Republican centrists trying to persuade more of them to vote for the measure.

He’s looking for additional votes out of an abundance of caution, an aide explained, after learning that ailing Sen. Ted Kennedy, who returned to Capitol Hill for votes earlier this week, has now gone back to Florida to continue his recovery from brain cancer and won’t be here for a final vote on the stimulus bill in the coming days.

With Kennedy here, the Senate version of the bill passed 61-37 – just one vote more than needed.

Reid is concerned that if a Democratic senator gets sick, or has some other unforeseen obligation, he could have trouble getting the bill passed.

Reid is also concerned because the three GOP moderates who support the bill – Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins of Maine, and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania – suggested they did not want provide the decisive 60th vote for passage. That would likely happen without Kennedy voting.

So far, there’s no indication Reid has won any more GOP votes for the measure. But an aide to one of the GOP moderates, who asked not to be identified, doubted any of the moderates would drop off.

“I can not imagine any of them would back away after all the painstaking negotiations,” the aide said.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/02/12/reid-looking-for-gop-votes/


And this was BEFORE Gregg (groveling at the feet of the GOP) decided to withdraw from consideration as Commerce Secretary, stating ideology issues with the stimulus and census. This was an effort clearly designed to shame Republican moderates from voting for the bill.

So far Snowe has indicated her continued support for the stimulus (during an interview on MSNBC), but we've not heard from Collins or Specter. So it might be a good idea to contact them and *verify* their support.

Susan Collins:
http://collins.senate.gov/public/continue.cfm?FuseAction=ContactSenatorCollins.Phone&CFID=5532035&CFTOKEN=53482706
Washington, D.C. Office [phone]


Arlen Specter:
http://specter.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Contact.OfficeLocations
Main: 202-224-4254


Olympia Snowe:
http://snowe.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=ContactSenatorSnowe.Phone
Phone: [phone]


ETA: This explains why 60 votes are necessary.

http://www.congressmatters.com/storyonly/2009/2/7/161443/9275

[Hawkeye-X]

1. I thought the conference version only requires 51 senators to pass

.....

:wtf:

Hawkeye-X

[BlueCaliDem]

5. Me too? I thought the filibuster can only stand during the time of debate

and they've had that, right?

What am I missing??

[sandnsea]

11. Something about spending authorization

I thought it was 51 too, but somebody else said it's still 61 because it's spending.

[Barack_America]

13. I edited the OP with a piece that explains it well.

I think.

;)

[karynnj]

14. Apparently because it will affect the budget (ie there are no offsets), it needs 60

At least that was the explanation given by one of the senators on TV.

[ProSense]

19. I still think it's 51 votes

Conference reports are privileged. And in the Senate, a motion to proceed to a conference report is not debatable, although Senators can generally filibuster the conference report itself. The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 limits debate on conference reports on budget reconciliation bills to 10 hours in the Senate, so Senators cannot filibuster those conference reports.

link

During the motion to proceed and on the vote to pass the bill before Conference requires 60 votes for a budget bill. After Conference the ability to stop the bill become nearly imposssible.

[PBS Poll-435]

20. I agree 100%

That is why the initial vote meant so much regarding CBA.

After it goes to conference, it is simple majority.

[Barack_America]

22. So which conference reports can be filibustered and which can't?

I'm confused.

I'll be pleased if this CNN article is BS all around, I'm just confused by it in general.

[karynnj]

23. I hope you are right - but it should be easy to get 50

(Biden will break a tie)

[ProSense]

26. I hope I'm right too.

:)

[Barack_America]

25. Here's another article stating the conference report needs 60 votes.

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/senate-eyes-a-789-billion-valentine-to-voters-2009-02-12.html

[ProSense]

32. I think the media is deliberately trying to confuse

Senate Democrats must hold on to at least two Republican votes to get the 60 votes needed to keep GOP opponents from blocking the bill. Not a single Republican voted in support of the House version of the bill, but House Democrats had enough votes to pass it despite 11 Democrats voting against it.

link

Blocking the bill?

So I go back to this:

Conference reports are privileged. And in the Senate, a motion to proceed to a conference report is not debatable, although Senators can generally filibuster the conference report itself. The Congressional Budget Act of 1974 limits debate on conference reports on budget reconciliation bills to 10 hours in the Senate, so Senators cannot filibuster those conference reports.

link

[Barack_America]

33. But then why is Reid giving interviews today saying that he needs 60 votes...

...and he's worried about a Dem getting sick?

Does what you posted mean that the Republicans could debate/filibuster the report for a maximum of 10 hours unless the Dems have 60 votes? Is this what Reid is trying to avoid?

Argh. I'm angry at myself that I don't get this. I feel like a big civics FAIL.

[ProSense]

34. Maybe Reid is doing his best at outreach.

At the very least, he needs only two of the three Repubs. What are the chances that the three who voted for it will vote against it?

[Barack_America]

35. Without Kennedy, he would need all 3.

If a 4th Republican doesn't step up.

[ProSense]

36. No, in this scenario, he only needs 60. n/t

[Barack_America]

37. Kennedy+ Specter + Snowe + Collins = 61.

So, without Kennedy, he'll need Specter, Snowe and Collins to get to 60.

This article was just posted and, from the sounds of it, Lugar is out.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/13/us/politics/13cong.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

[ProSense]

38. Right, so that's 60. That's all he would need. n/t

[Barack_America]

39. Okay, yeah. I was saying that if another Dem didn't show that he would need a 4th puke.

But that is probably unlikely.

I'm a bit worried about Specter holding though. I'm going to call his office tomorrow and see if I can get some reassurance.

[babylonsister]

2. Ruh roh. This doesn't bode well for Kennedy's health.

:(

[Barack_America]

6. Not necessarily. Often times those treatment schedules are pretty structured.

It doesn't sound like emergency treatment or anything.

[babylonsister]

7. If it's not a health issue, maybe he has some problems with

the bill? My head hurts.

[Barack_America]

9. No, it's a health issue.

Just not an EMERGENCY health issue.

[karynnj]

12. here are two videos of when he was here the last time - watch the second

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090209/ap_on_go_co/senate_kennedy

What is really clear is how hard this is on him. Last time, we got 61 votes - only 60 are needed. If we hold the three Republicans, we are ok. There was some discussion earlier this week that there may be 3 more Republicans. (Lugar and Voinivich were two - I can't remember the third.

[babylonsister]

18. Thanks for the link. And the other rethug is Murkowski...

I remembered reading that, too, but wonder if Gregg's (in)actions will change this.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=8189780

[Thrill]

3. Well stop dragging your damn feet and bring it to a vote

While Kennedy is there.

[Barack_America]

4. Sounds like Kennedy is already back in Florida. nt

[Avalux]

8. They don't need 61 votes this time.

At least it's my understanding they don't. :shrug:

[Barack_America]

10. They do need 60 votes. It's because the stimulus violates the Budget Act.

This explains it.

http://www.congressmatters.com/storyonly/2009/2/7/161443/9275

[ProSense]

17. No, that's primarily about the vote that happened this week.

So I think that's it. Section 201(b)(1) of S. Con. Res. 21, passed by the 110th Congress, appears to be at least one reason why it will take 60 votes to pass the stimulus bill in the Senate, and likewise any conference report arising from it. I'm not yet entirely clear whether any other points of order apply, and if so, whether there would be any particular reason for raising one versus the other, or even whether you can raise them all. But this one seems the most clearly applicable, though I could still be wrong about that. Nobody's really saying just yet exactly which one it is.

But this, I guess, is why when you read about it in the traditional media, they just say, "the Senate will require 60 votes to pass it," and it's left at that. Still, it'd be nice if they held themselves to the "Prove it!" standard once in a while.

[camera obscura]

15. and of course no Republican would willingly give up a vote for Kennedy... how selfish

You would think that one of his friends in the Senate would be willing to take one for the team but I guess not.

[JerseygirlCT]

16. I cannot imagine the three moderates backing out - they've been

all over the place talking this up. On what basis could they suddenly object to the bill that they helped to write?

One Dem being sick, though... could happen.

I'm having a hard time identifying another potential GOP moderate, though. Who?

[OhioBlue]

40. maybe Voinovich (R) Ohio

He was on the NPR station saying that he would have voted for it if he could have gotten money for sewer and water districts to upgrade and comply with unfunded EPA mandates. I realize they can't put that back into this bill but maybe they could strike a deal with him for future legislation or something.. He's retiring after this term and not running for political office again so the Rethugs can't use it against him.

I hope the vote is early tomorrow. Senator Sherrod Brown's (D) mother, Emily Campbell Brown passed away last week (exceptional lady) and her funeral is Saturday with calling hours on Friday. I feel bad for the Senator having to be stuck in D.C.

[Robbins]

21. Republicans

Let them fillbuster It.Obama can go across the country getting Public support.If Spector votes against It he Is done In PA.If Gregg
votes against It and decides to runa gain In NH It can be used against him.It can also help be used In NC against Burr.NC Is treading
Democrat.

And make them do a real filelrbuster.Obama Is giving them the rope to hang themselves.Republicans couldn't tolerate Democrats
Fillerbusting judges so now they want to fillerbuster Economic recovery.

[Fire1]

24. During his speech this p.m., Gregg already said he probably

would not seek re-election in 2010.

[jenmito]

27. But if the Repubs. can't get 40, the Dems. don't NEED 60, do they? n/t

[Barack_America]

28. I don't think that's how it works. It sounds like this conference report is just like cloture.

And the onus is on getting the number to pass it, rather than the number to kill it.

[jenmito]

29. Hmmm. Well, then they should still have 60 if nobody backs down, right?

And if anybody ruins it due to Kennedy not being able to get there, I think they will get so many complaint calls that they'd change their minds.

[tritsofme]

42. One objection to cloture makes a 60 vote threshold.

They have no obligation to find 40 votes, the majority needs 60 votes to cut off debate.

[jenmito]

52. Thanks.

:hi:

[ShadowLiberal]

51. They can if enough democrats don't vote

[JayMusgrove]

30. From the OP's link.......IF

"Reid is concerned that if a Democratic senator gets sick"

Reid is just doing his job, go to bed and forget this hysteria.



PLEASE, OP, fix your post title.....it is misleading and attention grabbing....oh but SO NOT TRUE!

[Barack_America]

31. IF a Dem gets sick -OR- IF one of the 3 Republicans folds.

Frankly, it's the second "if" that worries me.

[Better Believe It]

41. The Democrats can pass the stimulus with only 51 votes if necessary

If the Republicans filibuster Reid can threaten to use or actually use the so-called "nuclear option" if President Obama clearly indicates he wants Reid to follow that course of action.

[KharmaTrain]

44. They Still Need 60 For Cloture...

The bill will pass with 51, but before there's a final vote, there's a vote to end the "debate"...this is cloture and that's what requires the 60. If you don't get passed that hurdle, the bill doesn't go to a final vote.

I'm hoping the GOOP overplays and tries to fillibuster...let's see how long they can talk and shut down the government. That trick sure did wonders for Gingrich in '95...it ensured Clinton's re-election and cost Newt his job. No need to use the "nuclear option"...it's a card that we may need in our deck some day in the future. Just let them ramble and let them show the voters how out of touch they are.

The real pisser right now is that missing Minnesota vote...the one that belongs to Senator Al Franken. The GOOP is purposely stringing out the court battle there so that it denies Reid and Democrats of a critical vote.

Cheers...

[ChiciB1]

46. I Thought I Heard That Franken Just Might Lose After All1 I Heard It Today Too!

Am I correct? Weren't they in court and someone said that Franken may lose his lead.

Anyone have any information??

[KharmaTrain]

53. Huh? The Court Case Is A Joke...

The other day Coleman was able to scratch up a couple votes, but from what I can see is still behind and doesn't have many more tricks to pull. Last week his lawyer argued that there should be a "revote". It's all bullshit...even made smellier by the repugnicans bringing in their fixer, Ben Ginsburg to keep up the stalling and prevent Franken from being certified.

Here's today's theatrics...TPMDC has done a great job with daily updates:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/02/the-minnesota-trial-strict-construction-to-the-left-of-me-living-constitution-to-the-right.php

[ChiciB1]

54. Thanks A Lot.... n/t

[Barack_America]

55. It's just stall tactics to deprive Dems of another Dem in the Senate. nt

[Better Believe It]

48. We can either defeat a Republican filibuster, if they dare, or we can use

use a Senate rule to bypass a cloture vote and have an up and down vote on the stimulus package. It's the same rule that Senate Republicans threatened to use against Democrats in 2005 regarding Supreme Court nominations.

It seems that Senate Democrats are reluctant to even bring that old Senater rule to the attention Obama supporters. Right now they would rather reinforce the myth that they must obtain 60 votes to pass any legislation in this Senate and that Republican filibusters will be successful and that Democrats can't do anything to defeat or evade such filibusters.

[KharmaTrain]

50. That's The Nuclear Option...

I'd be careful to eliminate the fillbuster...should the Democrats return to the minority it is one of the few options they would have to get some attention. The old threshold was 67 until 1977...imagine trying to get that many votes today.

Again, I say let them fillibuster...let them shut down the government. The longer they yak and the worse things get, the bigger a price they will pay in the future.

The hidden secret in this Senate is how well the Democrats have stuck together...even, dare I say, Lieberman. The pressure is on the GOOP to hold onto whatever votes they have. As we saw here, President Obama could pick off enough votes to get over 60...and I can see him doing this again and again...cherry picking where needed and pitting the rabid wingnuts vs. the moderates. This battle is on their turf...let's keep it there.

Cheers...

[Hawkeye-X]

49. Fuck the Republicans - new rules needs to be made...

Since we're a huge majority (59 w/ Franken at the wings), then Reid needs to dump the stupid arcane rules and make new ones - nuclear option is now invoked due to a national state of emergency - All Republicans are cut off from the debate, since they're doing absolutely nothing but giving air.

So other new rules invoked:

Limit Republican debates to the issues at hand - if they're off whining, the whinefest can come on when no-one is on, and quorum is not necessary for that. The whinefest can be reserved from 12m to 6am EST, and they MUST be present to do so.

If they DO want to filibuster the bill, traditional filibuster is a MUST. 24/7 until cloture is called, and it is voted upon immediately. 51 votes is all is needed to end the filibuster due to the nuclear option invocation.

Any and all amendments will be given 15 minutes for consideration, then a roll call will be required to approve/reject amendments.

Audit all defense budget and see why we're sucking it up like a fucking black hole.

[book_worm]

43. I'm so sick of the Republicans. I hope Obama and the Dems are done with trying

to be bi-partisan because they have proved not to be.

[riderinthestorm]

45. We need Franken!! Any idea when he takes his seat? nt

[mucifer]

47. the year 2020

[Barack_America]

56. Let's hope Sherrod Brown's flight from Ohio makes it on time.

Sherrod Brown , D-Ohio, will be in his home state Friday for viewing hours for his mother, and then again Saturday for her funeral. Majority Leader Harry Reid , D-Nev., said the roll call would be held open for Brown on Friday night so he can return briefly to cast his “yes” vote after the viewing.

And my condolences for the death of his mother.

And let's hope the vote comes before sundown, so Lieberman is available to cast his vote.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003031200&cpage=1

[DCBob]

57. There are no other report about this. All the stories this morning indicate the bill will pass...

with no problems in either the House or Senate. If there was a real problem I am sure others would have picked up on it by now.