First, here is a greatly simplified version of TIA's argument embedded, here, in my diatribe on e-voting): We have two sets of numbers at the conclusion of each election--the tallied 'official vote,' and the National Exit Poll. The NEP is the exit poll of people after they vote, saying how they voted. Exit polls are generally very accurate, and are used worldwide to check for election fraud. Bear in mind, however, that the NEP in the U.S. is paid for by a consortium of corpo/fascist 'news' monopolies, which becomes important in view of what they do to the data at the end of election day.
The other number, the 'official' tally, is brought to you by a handful of rightwing Bushite corporations that peddled billions of dollars worth of highly insecure and insider hackable electronic voting machines to the states, during the 2002 to 2004 period. These machines are run on 'TRADE SECRET,' PROPRIETARY programming code, with virtually no audit/recount controls. Half the states do NO audit (handcount) of the votes, because there is no paper ballot TO count; the other half may have a paper ballot but they do only a miserable 1% audit--not nearly sufficient in a 'TRADE SECRET' vote counting system run by Bushwhacks. What this means is that massive fraud can occur and remain undetected. Diebold and brethren's numbers are fed to an Associated Press computer, thence to the networks and newspapers. If the exit polls of the NEP differ from the 'official' Bushwhack/corpo totals, the exit polls are 'adjusted,' by basically just making shit up, so that they match the Bushwhacky 'official' tally.
To repeat: The exit polls--which, in other countries are used to detect fraud--in this country are DOCTORED to FIT the 'official' count, which is brought to you by private corporations with close ties to the Bush junta and to the Republican Party. The exit polls are thus rendered useless as a check on machine fraud. If the exit polls give a different result than the 'official' tally, they will tell you that whatever that number is--say the 3% by which Kerry won the exit polls in 2004--is wrong.
And if you think this voting system is mind-bogglingly corrupt, wrong and dangerous to our national security, then you are one of the sane people in the country. Everybody else--those NOT tearing the hair out of their heads at this horror--are the crazy ones.
This system is
definitely cause for alarm.
What TIA does is show that the numbers don't add up. He works also with pre-election numbers--the number of new registered voters, for instance, or the pre-election poll numbers indicating trends, etc. Let me give you one example for TIA's analysis summary (the whole summary is below): (Note: "m" means millions of voters.)
2004
Bush won the recorded vote by 62.0m vs. 59.0m (50.73% vs.48.27%)
Kerry won the unadjusted state exit polls by 52% vs. 47%.
He led the preliminary NEP (12:22am, 13047 respondents) by 51% vs. 48%.
He led despite the implausible NEP 41/39% returning Bush/Gore voter mix.
The Final NEP(13660 sample) was forced to match the 50.7% vs. 48.3% Bush recorded margin.
To force the match in the Final NEP:
a) Bush shares of returning and new voters were increased,
b) the returning Bush/Gore voter mix was changed to an impossible 43%/37%.
The mix indicates 52.6m (43% of 122.3m) returning Bush year 2000 voters.
Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000.
Approximately 2.5m died and 2.5m did not vote in 2004.
So there were at most 45.5 million returning Bush voters.
The Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 7 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 8-10 million.
The election was stolen.(Note: I made some minor edits to the above, for clarity--such as changing "50.7-48.3%" to "50.7% vs. 48.3%." The mind starts reeling at the jambed together numbers after a while. --PP)
-----------
Do you see what he's saying? To make their exit polls match the 'official' tally, the NEP had to
invent 7 million Bush voters who were supposedly Bush return voters from year 2000. But those voters did not exist. In 'adjusting' the exit polls, the NEP made the unwarranted assumption that the 'official' 2004 count was correct. What the NEP should have been doing was sending out the alarm that the numbers did not add up. The exit polls were correct; the 'official' tally was padded.
And how could that be done? With 'TRADE SECRET' code in all the voting machines and central tabulators, owned and controlled by Bushite corporations. Also, millions of black and other Kerry voters were unfairly challenged at the polls and forced to use provisional ballots, which were then tossed out. To produce such a reversal (changing a Kerry win to a Bush win) required several election fraud methods in 2004. But the bottom line was the 'TRADE SECRET' code, at that time in 80% of the voting systems in the country. (It is now nearly 100%; the paper ballot situation has improved--half the systems now have a paper ballot, which is something of a deterrent, but with a meager 1% audit, not that much of a deterrent.)
Below is TIA's analysis summary for 2004, 2006 (the Congressional elections) and 2008 (Obama vs. McCain). He demonstrates how the Democrats in 2006, and Obama in 2008, were denied landslide victories (thus reducing their political clout--their mandate--for real change). For a highly readable, more detailed explanation of TIA's methods (by the man himself), go here:
http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionAnalysisLinks.htm -------------------------------------
Confirmation of 2000-2008 Election Fraud: Analysis of the Essential Polling Evidence
by TruthIsAll
Feb 18, 2009
Uncounted Votes
There are millions of uncounted votes in every election. The majority (70-80%) are Democratic.
Late Votes
The Democratic late vote exceeded the Election Day share by 7% in each of the last three presidential elections.
Undecided voters
Historically, undecided voters break (60-90%) for the challenger.
Pre-election polls in general do not allocate undecided voters.
The undecided vote was strongly Democratic in each of the last three elections,.
Pre-election Polls
Registered voter (RV) polls include new voters; likely-voter (LV) polls do not.
In general, only LV polls are posted during the final two weeks before the election.
LV polls have understated the Democratic vote in the last few elections due to the large number of new Democrats.
Logically, RV polls are better indicators when there is a heavy turnout of new voters – as in 2004 and 2008.
New Voters
According to the 1988-2004 NEP, Democrats won new voters by an average 14% margin.
In 2008, Obama won new voters by 71-27%.
The number of new voters is often understated and calculated incorrectly.
The correct calculation is given by the simple formula:
New voters = current election voters – prior election returning voters
New voters = current election voters– (prior election votes – 4.8% mortality) * prior voter turnout
Assuming 95% turnout of 2000 voters in 2008:
New voters = 20.77 million = 131.37 – (122.3 – 5.9)* 0.95 = 131.37 –116.4*.95= 131.37- 110.6
According to the Final 2008 NEP, there were 17.1m new voters (13% of 131.37).
Since the 1.2% annual mortality rate is accurate, 17.1m new voters would require an implausible 98.2% voter turnout.
Final National Exit Poll
The Final NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote count.
In 2004, the returning Bush/Gore 43/37% voter mix was impossible.
In 2006, the returning 49/43% Bush/Kerry voter mix was implausible.
In 2008, the returning 46/37% Bush/Kerry voter mix was impossible.
2000
Gore won by 51.0-50.46m (48.38-47.87%).
The Census reported 110.8 million votes cast, but just 105.4m recorded.
The Final 2000 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.
Approximately 4 million of the 5.4 million uncounted votes were for Gore.
Therefore he won the True Vote by 55-52m.
The election was stolen.
2004
Bush won the recorded vote by 62.0-59.0m (50.73-48.27%)
Kerry won the unadjusted state exit polls by 52-47%.
He led the preliminary NEP (12:22am, 13047 respondents) by 51-48%.
He led despite the implausible NEP 41/39% returning Bush/Gore voter mix.
The Final NEP(13660 sample) was forced to match the 50.7-48.3% Bush recorded margin.
To force the match in the Final NEP:
a) Bush shares of returning and new voters were increased,
b) the returning Bush/Gore voter mix was changed to an impossible 43/37%.
The mix indicates 52.6m (43% of 122.3) returning Bush 2000 voters.
Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000.
Approximately 2.5m died and 2.5m did not vote in 2004.
So there were at most 45.5 million returning Bush voters.
The Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 7 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 8-10 million.
The election was stolen.
2006 Midterms
Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic polls.
The final trend line projection was a 56-42% Democratic landslide.
At 7pm, the NEP indicated a 55-43% landslide.
The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 47/45%.
The Final was forced to match the 52-46% recorded vote.
To force the match:
a) the Bush share of returning and new voters were increased,
b) the returning voter mix was changed to an impossible 49/43%.
The Democratic margin was cut in half.
The landslide was denied.
2008
Obama won the recorded vote by 69.4-59.9m (52.9-45.6%)
Obama led the final pre-election registered voter polls by 52-39%.
The Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.
To force the match, the Final indicated
a) an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix.
The split overstated returning Bush voters by over 6 million.
b) an impossible 4% (5.2m) were returning third-party voters.
There were only 1.2 million third-party voters in 2004.
There were 60.4 million returning Bush voters.
Bush only had 62.0 million votes in 2004 (assuming no fraud).
Approximately 3 million died and another 3 million did not vote in 2008.
Therefore there were at most 54 million returning Bush voters.
The split overstated returning Bush voters by over 6 million.
Obama's True Vote margin was cut in half.
The landslide was denied.
In summary:
If the Final NEP indicates an impossible number of returning voters,
then simple logic dictates that the Final is impossible.
If the Final is impossible and is matched to the official vote count,
then the official vote count must also be impossible.
If the Final is impossible, then all demographic voting results are impossible.http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ConfirmationofPollingElectionFraud.htmhttp://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionAnalysisLinks.htm
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