LA-Sen: Circus Adds One More Ring

[ccharles000]

At this point, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Tom McClintock and Gary Coleman show up to run in the Republican senate primary in Louisiana. So far, we have a potential challenge to David Vitter, a man who allegedly paid for sex, from Stormy Daniels, a woman whose career is based around being paid for sex. (If Mary Carey's candidacy for governor of California is any indication, the Daniels candidacy shouldn't be expected to get any serious traction, if it even becomes official. As a marketing ploy it might not even pencil out for her, if the anticipated revenues from increased sales of DVDs to curious constituents interested in learning more about her positions are exceeded by lost residuals from campaign advertising laws preventing her cinematic works from being shown on Louisiana cable systems.)
As of today, add a more legitimate potential challenger: Tony Perkins, prominent religious right talking head and current head of the Family Research Council. This is what Vitter was trying to head off with his recent moves to the hard right (taking on Clinton for SoS, for instance), but Perkins apparently still smells blood, today telling Politico that he's "considering" the race.


"I don't think he needs to say anything else about it, but I don't think he can do anything else about it," Perkins said. "Can people feel a sense of trust in him to publicly stand with him and support him and help him? Maybe he has . I know I still get some questions. I think he is certainly vulnerable a challenge from the right - a candidate without issues."
Perkins does have a background in elective politics: he lost the 2002 Senate primary and prior to that was a state representative in Louisiana, where he helped pass the state's "covenant marriage" law which allows couples to opt into a marriage where divorce becomes more difficult. He also managed the failed 1996 Senate campaign for Woody Jenkins (last seen losing the LA-06 special to Don Cazayoux).

This is an extremely difficult race to handicap, since it's still unclear who will be running (no Dems have stepped forward yet). It's also unclear how the Republican base would split in the case of one of the nation's most right-wing senators being challenged from the right: the breakdown may not be ideological as much as based on religion and region, as Vitter is a Catholic who used to represent New Orleans suburbs, while Perkins is from Baton Rouge and will play better among evangelical Protestants in the state's north. (And don't forget that while Louisiana threw out its traditional jungle primary for federal races, it still uses runoffs for primary races where no one hits 50%, and if there's a third candidate a runoff may result.)

It's tempting to say that a Democrat would have a better shot against the ostensibly more polarizing Perkins (with his links to the Council of Conservative Citizens and, via the Jenkins campaign, David Duke) than Vitter, but with Vitter's travails, maybe not. And with Louisiana one of the few states trending away from the Democrats, they might not have much of a shot against either one.

http://www.swingstateproject.com

[LiberalFighter]

1. Why don't they just gather around in a circle and shoot each other off?