Was the Gallup poll the outlier? New Rasmussen show Dean best vs. Bush

[MR. ELECTABLE]

January 8, 2004--In a hypothetical match-up between President George W. Bush and a generic Democrat, 45% of Americans say they would vote for the Democrat while 44% would vote for President Bush .

However, the latest Rasmussen Reports' survey also shows that in a race between President Bush and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, Bush leads 49% to 40%. The President leads other Democratic contenders by an even wider margin.

<snip>

In a match-up with Governor Dean, Bush leads 56% to 34% in the states he carried last time. However, in the Blue States carried by Gore, Dean leads the President narrowly, 47% to 42%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

January 8, 2003--On Thursday morning, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean continues to be his party's top choice for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Twenty-two percent (22%) of Democrats say the now prefer Dean.

<snip>

Three other candidates are essentially tied in the race to become the alternative to Dean. The latest Rasmussen Reports' survey shows thatWesley Clark and Joe Lieberman are each favored by 13% of the nation's Democrats while Dick Gephardt is the pick of 12%. John Kerry, the man once presumed to be the frontrunner, slipped another point to 8%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Democrats_Ballot_Preference_January%202004.htm

[JasonDeter]

1. 3/4's of Americans say, "Who's Dean?" polls now are worthless.

On edit I'd say more Americans know who Sharpton is before Dean. And lieberman.

[CMT]

2. again the evidence is inconclusive

Dean does best vs. Bush in Time poll from last week, and now in this poll. The gallup poll only asked Bush vs. Dean so we really don't know how the other candidates do vs. Bush.

[Beetwasher]

3. If Dean Leads in the States Gore Carried, Dean Wins

Of course, that's if there's a fair election...Unfortunately, at the very least, Fla. will definitely be rigged again...

[KittyWampus]

4. Which News Group Is Rasmussen Associated With?

Who is paying for them?

Who the hell are they?

[adamrsilva]

5. No, polls only matter if they favor Clark

You'll never see this on CNN...

[Hoppin_Mad]

14. Very true to many of the supporters here -nt-

[JaneQPublic]

6. Don't like the new poll out today? Wait until tomorrow.

Inevitabley, another poll will come out showing a trend in complete contradiction to that of today's poll.

The best bet is just to always assume your candidate is behind in the polls and work like the devil to help him/her win.

[BeyondGeography]

7. You're absolutely right

Very sensible post.

[CMT]

8. KICK

[Forkboy]

9. DU should ban polls

[w13rd0]

10. Haha, ban polls?

Hell, they can't even reliably manage trolls, how they gonna ban polls?

[Forkboy]

12. It was meant to be a bit tongue in cheek

I dont really want to see them banned,but they are totally pointless when everyone can find a poll to their liking.

[HFishbine]

11. Huge Sample

1,500 likely voters. And lowest margin of error I've seen of any national poll, only +/- 3%.

How do the other candidates stack up against Bush?

Bush: 51
Clark: 32

"Other than Howard Dean, all of the Democratic contenders attract between 29% of the vote (Edwards) and 34% of the vote (Lieberman)."

[slinkerwink]

15. ouch for clark...

[farmbo]

13. Bush 51% Clark 32%...Ouch!

Can someone who knows polling analyze this poll along with the Harris Interactive (CNN/Time)poll and the USA Today poll?

USA Today's is totally off the reservation.

[SahaleArm]

17. Gallup is slightly more respected than Harris n/t

[adamrsilva]

18. Gallup is GOP

as is USA Today. I think you're forgetting that the poll was bad for Dean, but it was also bad for all the candidates all around, and very good for Bush.

[jsw_81]

16. Bush at 49 percent?

That's bad news for Karl Rove. Any incumbent who's polling under 50 percent in an election year is in trouble.