so where are all the polls which proves Clark is stronger than Dean?

[CMT]

The CBS News poll and Gallup poll which show Bush beating Dean by 20-points don't ask about any other candidate, so we don't know if Clark fares better in these polls or not.

Then there are some polls from the last month which do include multiple candidates.

Rassmussen today had this finding:

Bush: 49%
Dean: 40%

Bush: 51%
Clark: 32%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

According to Polling Report:

CNN/Time (last week)
Bush: 51%
Dean: 46%

Bush: 53%
Clark: 43%

ABC News (in December)
Bush: 53%
Dean: 40%

Bush: 53%
Clark: 41%

*slight edge to Clark.

NBC/WSJ (mid December)
Bush: 52%
Dean: 31%

Bush: 53%
Clark: 28%

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

Sorry, but this constant Dean can't win, but Clark can is not really backed up. In polls in the last month where both Dean and Clark were pitted against Bush--Dean is running better than Clark in 3/4 and Clark is running 1-point better than Dean in one poll. Again, CBS and Gallup only pitted Dean against Bush, so we don't know how any of the other candidates do vs. Bush in those polls.

[cthrumatrix]

1. didn't you get the Rove memo? Clark is clearly a threat..ask Rush

[Cheswick2.0]

2. Word's out

Dean's supporters are flakey! I guess there are just more flakes in the democratic party than we thought.

[CMT]

27. yes

or as one Clark supporter said we are a bunch of punk college students whose interest will not last even through the general election.

[demothinker]

3. I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you, but

keep in mind that Dean is much more well known to people at this point due to his coverage as the front runner. If/when people know more about Clark, those numbers could change. I don't think those polls are an accurate reflection of how each could do against Bush, neither independently nor comparatively to each other.

[CMT]

7. Clark began the campaign very well known

much more than Dean when he began. He had been NATO commander and a television commentator and had a very well organized Draft movement which got tremendous coverage. Dean, on the whole, has been getting negative press from the national media for the last few months.

[StephNW4Clark]

4. Electoral Map for Clark/Bush; Dean/Bush

It's all about getting rid of Bush, right?

Electoral Votes in the General Election
Clark: 271
Bush: 267

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/images/pdfs/clark.pdf

Dean: 264
Bush: 274

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/images/pdfs/dean.pdf

[cthrumatrix]

5. oh gee thanks --- Dean can pack-up. Rove sends his love to

you and Rush and all other kind folks.

[w13rd0]

6. haha...

...the directory is called crystal ball. Is any further commentary even necessary?

[StephNW4Clark]

10. Accuracy for 2002 Elections

Crystal Ball Accuracy 2002


HOUSE: CB accurately predicted 433 out of 435 House races (99.6% accurate).

SENATE: CB accurately predicted 32 of 34 races (94% accurate).

GOVERNOR: CB accurately predicted 32 of 36 races (88% accurate).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/02analysis-cb.htm

It's also run by the University of Virginia - a respected educational institution.

It's not some silly site hosted on a geocities server.

[9119495]

17. Right but not as many races were competitive. So

if I spent the time, I could probably forcast as they did. I knew Republicans were gaining in 2002 because Dems laid down. There past accuracy does not mean they are right with these maps. Also, my post down thread notes some problems with the maps.

[HFishbine]

28. Were the predicions made

eleven months before the election?

[Buffler]

29. With the rate that incumbents are reelected

I bet I can predict the 2004 house and senate races close to 98% as well.

[adamrsilva]

8. Not sure about that. I think can Dean (or Clark) can win Ohio.

They've been hit hard economically. And both Dean and Clark support gun rights so...

[CMT]

9. tell us how this proves this is how the election will actually

play out? Give Dean Florida if he puts Bob Graham on the ticket. He will also carry West Virginia, imo, which is as good as anybody's opinion.

[StephNW4Clark]

11. Fine. I'm not asking you to believe it.

Think Dean will win Florida b/c of Graham? Fine.

You asked for indications that Clark was a stronger candidate. I gave you an analysis provided by a respected 3rd party. Whether or not you choose to believe them is something I can't argue.

[w13rd0]

12. it's certainly as good an opinion...

...as one belches out of a crystalball...

Man, I gotta get me one of them crystalballs...who knows what fortunes could lie in store for me if only i had a clear lock on THE FUTURE!!!!! (note excessive punctuation)

I could give up my quest for time travel even...

ON EDIT: If you accept the premise that "everything has changed" since S11, than past predictive analysis by the crystalball means very little. If you don't accept that premise, than you've lost half the reasons given for the predicted success that you claim. Furthermore, this election cycle has already rendered so much "conventional wisdom" utter nonsense. Why stop now?

[cthrumatrix]

13. honestly...Ms Cleo told us that "clark would win Florida"...now stop it.

[adamrsilva]

14. That's a good point

Florida is certainly favoring Bush, but it is open, especially if Graham is Dean's or Clark's VP.

[SahaleArm]

16. How do you plan to break the Jeb lockbox? It'll take more than Graham n/t

[9119495]

15. Maps are wrong. Dean will get W. Virginia for at least

269-269. But I think Dean could also get Nevada. How do they figure Clark gets WV and Dean does not. WV hated Gore for gun controll and Clark is where Gore was on that issue.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

18. Where does it show Bush vs. Clark. Don't see it....

Bush: 51%
Clark: 32%

[w13rd0]

21. It's linked...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential%20Contenders_January%202004.htm

[kerry-is-my-prez]

22. Thanks..

n/t

[bitchkitty]

But MADONNA endorsed Wes!

Doesn't that count for something????

[cthrumatrix]

30. not if Dean has "britney"..... more to follow

[bitchkitty]

19. Goddamn keyboard.

Keeps sticking.

[BeyondGeography]

20. It's the unfavorables

that work against Dean. More people dislike him than Bush in the latest USA Today polling:

Dean 39% unfavorable
Bush 35%
Clark 26%

Only 28% rate Dean favorably, versus 37% for Clark and 65% for the Chimp.

http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/index.php?page=national&story_id=010704a1_poll

[CMT]

25. but that doesn't tell us how Clark does vs. Bush

and the scrutiny Dean has been under Clark hasn't. I don't doubt that the fight for the nomination is tightening (though Clark supporters tend to forget that several polls gave Clark a lead nationally for the nomination just after he got in)but where are all the polls which show that Clark is the stronger general election candidate?

[lurk_no_more]

23. "so where are all the polls which proves dean is stronger than bush?"

If the polls picked the winner, bush is it! You can believe dean beats Clark because of the polls, but you can't/don't believe bush beats dean by the same polls?

After the mid-terms, I find poll watching just a wee bit over rated.


And then there were none!
” JAFO”

[CMT]

24. Yes, but it is some Clark supporters

who assert that Dean is a loser and only Clark can beat Bush. So "where's the beef?"

[CMT]

26. or even in the key state of Pennsylvania

the last Quinnipiac poll of that state had Dean six-points behind Bush (49-43) and Clark nine-points behind Bush (50-41)

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x660.xml

[Bread and Circus]

31. These polls mean nothing, logic would indicate Clark is the best..

challenger against Bush.

At one point, Lieberman lead all the Dem polls. Where are
those polls?