JoeyScar on MTP saying IL, PA, and NY could be Repug Senate pick-ups in 2010.

[jefferson_dem]

Way before noon and Joey's already wasted.

[ewagner]

1. I can see Illinois

because of Blago and Burris but the rest are figments of Joe (whatdeadintern?)Scar's imagination.

[rpannier]

3. I don't see Illinois

The republikkans have a very limited field and Blago will have very little impact on the Senate race.
Burris is not planning on running for re-election so he becomes a non-factor.

The republikkans are a mess in Illinois and the Dems have a pretty strong field.

Unless Kirk runs, the republikkans will lose by double-digits. If he runs, they lose by 5-7%. He knows it and probably won't run -- especially if he thinks it'll be Madigan

[TheWraith]

9. Burris probably IS running for reelection...

But he's going to lose badly in the primary.

[AtomicKitten]

45. Burris is a really weak candidate.

It's a crying shame Blago wasted a plum appointment on that car wreck.

[Arkana]

48. Schakowsky, Madigan, whoever primaries Burris will clobber him.

[rpannier]

50. He's made no attempt to raise any money

He's not gonna run

[jefferson_dem]

4. I can see PA being competitive but only if Ridge gets in.

On the other hand, even with the Blago stain, I see no way the President's home state flips. NY is safe Dem.

[ShadowLiberal]

14. Agreed, Ridge is the only way I'd see us maybe losing in PA, I doubt Gerlach could beat Specter

Much as some people say that Jim Gerlach is a battle tested powerful candidate, I think his electoral history begs to differ. I mean in one of his recent elections, I think in 2008, he faced a little known and badly underfunded candidate, he won the election with just 52% of the vote, compared to the 51% of the vote when he got a much better funded opponent. Now compare those numbers to say Kristen Gilbrand in NY-20, when she faced trivial opposition she won with over 60% of the vote. If 52% of the vote is the best he can do when he 'peaks' then he's in big trouble against someone like Specter, who he won't be able to paint as a 'radical liberal' like he has to his other opponents he won 51% and 52% of the vote against.

[WinkyDink]

46. When the Ridge-pushed 33% increase in our PPL electricity bill kicks in in 2010, Tommy's over.

Gov. Ridge claimed, as all Repubs do, that the "competition" would mean LOWER rates.

[AlinPA]

52. Ridge will win PA if he runs against Specter. People in PA like Ridge for some

crazy reason.

[ShadowLiberal]

11. I don't see Burris costing us the seat in IL, he only raised $850 dollars, and is $100,000 in debt

Does that look like someone thinking of running for reelection to congress?

Plus one of Burris' opponents (I forget their name) raised over a million dollars in the first quarter, after declaring their candidacy only a month ago.

[SoCalDem]

28. Burriss will not win a primary, so he cannot "lose" the senate seat

He's only "renting" it right now:)

[Arkana]

49. Whoever that is I want to toss them some money.

Burris is an idiot and should never have accepted Blago's appointment.

[Cha]

42. Just because blago and burris in Illinois

are abberations in the Dem Party doesn't mean the Democratic Party can't come back with a candidate who is the antithesis and will be what the Dems need to counteract the uglyness of a sociopath and a narcissus.

[AllentownJake]

2. He's not totally off base

Tom Ridge could possibly beat Arlen Specter in a General Election. There is little difference between Arlen and Ridge and Ridge while not a young man is younger than Specter. That is assuming the GOP base in PA gets a brain and selects Ridge over Toomey. Ridge hasn't won an election since 1998 and the make up of the GOP in 1998 would have selected Specter over Toomey. In 2010 they would select Toomey over Specter.

NY I think is a pipe dream. Pointing at NY is like every 4 years when these idiots saying they are targeting New Jersey in a Presidential Election since 1996 only to run with their tails between their legs out of there.

Illinois is also a possibility with the scandal, however Burris is not going to survive a primary and a stronger democratic challenger will emerge.

2/3 are possibilities.

[Arkana]

6. A good thing about a Ridge v. Specter matchup is that it might force Specter

slightly farther left--maybe make him realize that labor isn't so bad after all.

[AllentownJake]

8. Specter has actually had a very pro-labor voting record

In 2004 labor stayed out of the Senate race because of it.

His EFCA position was his last attempt to stay in the GOP. He can't turn on it over night.

There will be a slight change made to the bill, he'll exaggerate that its significant and suddenly makes it acceptable and he'll vote for it.

[Arkana]

12. Possible.

Now that he doesn't have the GOP leadership to worry about, he could vote for it and actually improve his reelection chances.

[AllentownJake]

17. Specter will do what's best for Specter

If he's the block to EFCA than labor is going to work against him. They may even fund a primary opponent.

The only group Specter has yet to co-opt in the PA democratic party is organized labor. They are a powerful force and they will send their people into the state in a Primary. So Specter will eliminate the threat by finding a way to get EFCA to pass.

[CTyankee]

37. that's my scenario hope for his vote on health care, too.

The public is SO ready for a public health care plan and he is behind the times if he doesn't think that by voting against it he will win in his state, IMO.

[shaggieshapiro]

10. Tom Ridgecould win

Arlen Specter is such a gasbag, that he proves how stupid Harry Reid is. Why did we strike this deal with Specter? Specter cannot be trusted. He did not support the budget, by the way. We need a real Democrat to run against Specter in 2010. Just my 2cents, but Joe Sestak would be the Democrat we need!!

[AllentownJake]

20. They made a deal to get Health Care passed

Specter will probably not face a real primary threat unless he pisses off labor with his EFCA vote.

The budget passed, if Specter's vote was needed old Arlen would have been called into the VP's office and he'd walk out voting for it.

If you understand PA politics you know that Joe Sestak will not challenge Specter without authorization from either the White House or the Governor's mansion. If Sestak runs against Specter, Specter broke his deal.

[IndianaGreen]

39. There should be a primary challenge to the dying pig Specter

FRAK whatever "deal" was made to bring this POS into the Democratic caucus this year. Next year, Pennsylvania Democrats should pick one of their own to run against the GOP candidate.

[Arkana]

5. Not gonna happen.

Illinois politics are such that the only thing they hate more than Democrats are Republicans.

And Scarborough's an idiot for thinking a Republican will win a Senate seat in New York--that would mean winning NYC, and Republicans are incapable of winning massive urban areas.

[leftynyc]

54. Remember

New York voted for Giuliani twice and Pataki twice. Depends on who the candidates are.

[old mark]

7. I live in PA. I'd vote for Arlen Specter several times before I'd vote for Tom

Ridge or any other GOPer.
Joe Scar is a jerk.

mark

[davidwparker]

19. What about insuring a Democratic primary and running the congressman

from your 7th (?) district?

Defeat Arlen there and allow a (D) to take the senate seat. It looks like you're getting a (R) otherwise, despite what Arlen calls himself this week.

[AllentownJake]

21. PA Democratic Politcs

Specter made a deal with the White House and the Governor's mansion.

Joe Sestak will not run with those two offices ready to smash him.

In addition Sestak is from the wrong part of the state to challenge Specter. Sestak is from the Philly burbs and the democrats there voted for Specter when he was a Republican. They are dancing in the streets they can now vote for him as a democrat.

If you want a primary challenger for Specter it would have to come from Pittsburgh where the person has their own machine to back them and than can go after the more liberal voters in the Philly burbs and reach out to the democrats in the middle of the state.

[davidwparker]

25. Then, I hope someone from Pittsburgh runs. I don't think deals should be

made with your primary process. I don't care that this manipulation of the system was apparently done by Democrats.

[AllentownJake]

26. Deals are always made in the Primary process

Its a symptom of a strong democratic party in the state.

The reason that Specter walked across the aisle is due to the fact that the GOP in PA is extremely weak right now.

If a deal wasn't struck in 2004 between Emil Jones and Barack Obama he would not have been a Senator let alone President.

[old mark]

29. This "manipulation" IS the system in PA - we have the most corrupt

state politics in the nation.
The state legislators should be in prison Democrats and Republicans alike.
Our Governor is no better.
mark

[livetohike]

23. Me too. I really think Specter is a lock in PA

and I agree that Scarborough is a jerk.

[AlinPA]

53. The "pickup" is very possible : Specter switches back to R after winning as a D or,

if Ridge beats him.

[Uzybone]

13. GOP will not pick up the presidents old seat in Ill.

NY is also a total dream. PA is remotely possible only if Ridge runs, but Rendell/Obama on one side and Ridge on he other...I'll pick the democrats.

[ErinBerin84]

15. Joey Scar is on MTP a bunch of times

Yet Rachel Maddow, who is much more ratonal and fair, would be deemed too liberal to ever appear on the panel or something.

[Cha]

43. Which just goes to show what a corporate media-

whore enterprise mtp is.

[liberalpragmatist]

16. NY may have a close Dem Primary, but whoever wins will win in the general

My guess is that Gillibrand will survive, given her support from her Senate colleagues, the Clintons, and upstate voters, but it'll be close and either Steve Israel or Carolyn Maloney may beat her.

Whoever wins the nomination though will win the general election easily.

[quiller4]

36. My guess is that Maloney will bow out

and Gillibrand will retain the seat. Maloney knows that mjost of the NY poiticians she had hoped to support her have informed her they are sticking with Gillibrand

[vaberella]

18. In NY?! Dem all the way. I find it unlikely a Repub will get very far to be honest. n/t

[saltpoint]

31. Hi, vaberella. Can you offer an update on the odds of Pataki getting into

this race for the GOP?

Early on I had heard chatter about Peter King. Then it seemed to shift to Pataki. Would Pataki go from a consultant/executive status to being a junior senator?

[Arkana]

47. King would be hideously unpopular in the urban areas--he's intensely disliked

outside of his own district I believe, and you can't win in NY without NYC.

New Yorkers--confirm/deny?

[saltpoint]

22. I'm happy to disagree with Joe. I think New York is a gauntlet of loss for

the GOP. Pataki is their strongest candidate for that Senate seat, and Pataki, in addition to maybe being disinterested in being a Senator by temperatment, is a hapless fool. Registration favors Dems. Current wind-at-our-backs momentum favors Dems, and did I mention that Pataki is a hapless fool?

Burris is toast. The Republicans have Kirk there in Illinois who could put up a respectable set of numbers for a statewide race but I think the Republican Party in Illinois is a house of cards. The primary will yield a new Democratic nominee and that woman or man will zoom on to a sturdy victory.

[polichick]

24. LOL - PA is a nice deep blue these days and it'll be bluer yet by 2010.

[Laelth]

27. Huh? He has got to be kidding. n/t

:dem:

-Laelth

[saltpoint]

30. I don't crystal ball KNOW if Joe's wrong, but I'm predicting IL and NY

will stay blue, and with a very good chance in PA as well.

[cherish44]

32. I'd like to see Lisa Madigan run in IL

I think Burris would have a tough time winning if he were the Dem nominee and Illinois Dems know that. Madigan seems pretty well respected by Dems and Independents

[Thrill]

40. She appears to want to be Governor

[rucky]

33. Has he ever been right about anything?

[Cha]

44. That would be

the question.

[moondust]

34. Without any known connection to reality?

Oh.

[JamesA1102]

35. Patterson will lose to Rudy

If he is the nominee for Governor. The Senate seat is safe no matter who wins the primary. And no one has a chance against Chuck.

[Stellabella]

38. What about that dead intern in your office, Joke? (sic)

Somebody needs to bring that up every time he whines on the tube.

[LittleBlue]

41. NY?

What a fool.

[AlinPA]

51. PA a pickup? We have a D and and an R now. Specter didn't really switch.

He is still a republican. So if Ridge beats him it's no real "pickup".

[JayMusgrove]

55. Who listens to Joe (dead intern) and takes what he says as

anything serious???

I think Joe is about as stupid a politician as we have ever had. Problem is that he has a TV show to show off his stupidity daily.