Mark these words. PA Senate race is going to make CT 2006 look tame

[Perky]

Put Sestak-Specter aside for the moment. The first big fight is likely to be Toomey-Ridge This is going to a a great campaign to watch because it is going to be a campaign of the heart and soul of the party. A bedrock conservative and anti-abortionist against the pro-choice catholic moderate. Ridge is loved in PA, (though why I don't know) but would have to call lifelong Republicans who deserted the party in the last electron back home by running on Toomey's left in order to win the primary. It would be nasty and very expensive. and there is no one who is strong enough in the party to put it back together for the general. It would be fratricidal for him to get in....but everyone knows that Toomey will not win the General.

The amount of money flowing into that primary and the surrogate alignment is going to be what to watch. This race has the potential of splintering th party perhaps irretrievably. Toomey is the presumptive nominee right now because of his base, but if Ridge gets in, it is only going to be talked about as an attempt to "save" the party. The loser could very well wind up running in the general as an "independent" Republican because the money will be available to do so.

I suspect Sestak is going to challenge Specter with Union backing and largely because of Card Check and because of Health-care. While the President may want to clear the field in the short term to capitalize on the GOP funk (and gain Specter's support on key cloture votes). those two votes are Specter's "independence" and "Loyalty" and "age" are going to be front and center on a Sestak campaign. It is going to be very hard for Obama to campaign for Specter against Sestak and the SEIU.


Anyone guess on how that shakes out, but Specter has got to be looking at the landscape and wonder what he has potentially unleashed.

There are actually six possible races Poor Specter has only one easy path and that is with Sestak not running

---Toomey Specter (Specter Wins)
---Ridge Specter (Ridge probably wins a tough race, but only if Toomey demurs and tells his backers ti hold their nose and vote for Ridge)
---Toomey Sestak (Sestak wins)
---Ridge Sestak (Sestak probably wins because of GOP Fratricide)

In a three way fight
---Toomey Ridge Specter (Pick 'em...but where is the Dem?)
---Toomey Ridge Sestak (Sestak with about 45%)

[DFW]

1. I'm not sure Ridge beats Specter

That seems like a risky prediction so far out. Specter's comportment as a Senate Democrat between
now and the Democratic Primary will have a lot to do with what kind of Democratic support he receives.

[Perky]

2. It depends on where the money goes.

He is counting on funding frmm GOP moderates and no primary challenger. There is a lot of money that could wind uop in Ridge's hands for that priamry battle that Specter is counting on fpr the General particularly if he votes as suspected against Card Check

[DFW]

3. Ridge and Sestak will both determine where the money goes

If either one enters their State's primary, it will be messy. If Toomey runs unopposed in the
primary, then we win no matter what. If our primary is a bruising battle and the winner has to
run against Ridge, it gets dicier.

[sampsonblk]

9. Ummm..Ditto

If Specter wins the nomination, he is going to have the full backing of the White House, along with immense financial support.

Meanwhile, Ridge will be carrying huge baggage from his party's primary. Toomey will call him out on all the hot-button Republican issues and make him declare himself on each.

This seat goes to the Dem candidate, as long as the Dems don't blow it in the primaries by tearing each other up too much.

[PassingFair]

16. His "comportment" thus far is not very promising!

He's been going out of his way
to proclaim that he won't be a
"good democrat".

:hi:

[zipplewrath]

4. How will DU go?

I'll be interested in how DU splits on this one. There are two ways to look at Specter, one is as a "big tent" democratic party willing to accept a wide range of points of view. Another is him as "carpet bagger" only interested in the Democratic party to hold onto office. I expect to see pleas for money for Sestak during the primary. It would seem there is only mild difference here between Lieberman and Specter. If Specter wins the primary, do we then "campaign" for him? If Ridge wins, did Specter screw up?

[The Wizard]

5. another course

would be to let Specter go unchallenged in a primary and let him retire after one more term. Primary battles serve to help the other party. Let's encourage Republicans to engage in self destruction.
I disagree with Specter on several issues, but having sixty plus votes in the Senate shuts down the Republican obstructionists.

[JimGinPA]

6. You Can't Run As An Independent After Running In A Primary Here

We have a "Loser Law" in PA.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

12. That changes everything.

[Perky]

13. Yeah it does....good

[Perky]

14. Though I suppose the RW whackos could put up someone like Santorum,

[AlinPA]

7. I agree with the races as you predict. It will be Ridge v Specter because

the R's see that Toomey can't win the election; and Obama, Rendell & Casey will help Specter. Ridge will beat Specter because people really like Ridge here (he won't have to campaign in Erie and Pittsburgh, essentially the western part of PA).

[JimGinPA]

8. Ridge Has Too Much "Bush" Stink On Him To Win

He was the face on all those fake politically motivated "terror alerts". That will bite him in the ass.

[sampsonblk]

10. You underestimate the national influence of RW wackos

Toomey is going to turn Ridge into a RINO. The only ppl who are left to vote in the GOP primary are die-hard fundie types. They will be the key to the primary. And Toomey is their guy. And he espouses the stuff they claim to believe in.

I can't see Ridge beating Toomey without turning a little fundie himself. And if he does that, I can't see him winning the general election.

But I could be wrong, of course.

[AlinPA]

11. I do hope the RW wackos prevail in the primary, but here in PA Ridge is still respected

and liked, although I can't understand that.

[Perky]

15. Or he runs to the center reclaiming his base of moderates

amd dissing Specter while Sestak disses Specter from the Left. That may be his only play.

If he calls the party faithful home to rescue it from the likes of Toomey it is going to get very interesting and fratricidal but his challenges is that he is going to have to get those who left the party to come back in to the fold so that they can vote for him. That takes a really big really early ground game which takes money....anf that is where the PA GOP starts to get roiled.

[sampsonblk]

17. What you're talking about is a miracle

I am not discounting the possibility that one could happen... but realistically, that scenario you outlined is very unlikely in my opinion.

This ain't 1994. A lot of things have changed.

[Perky]

18. To have any shot at the Primary. He had to get peope who left the party to come back

That mean you have to make a lot of noise about going forward with a new typ of GOP/ He can't buddy up to Toomey He has to pick a fight. The only other way to deny Toomey the nod is for Santorum to get. He would split the hard right and Ridge could win with 40%

[Cha]

19. I can't wait to donate money to

Joe Sestak because specter isn't a "loyal Dem"..at least he said he never said that.

[AllentownJake]

20. People from outside PA shouldn't speculate too much

There are forces in this state that don't exist in other states.

Unless your from Illinois, there is no way you'll understand PA.