PA Senate Dem Primary Poll: Specter 57, Sestak 20

[MadBadger]

ugh

Name recognition is still probably pretty low for Sestak...but C'mon PA Dems! The choice requires absolutely no thinking.

The poll was taken by a GOP Outfit so do with that information what you like.

Not sure if this was posted a few days ago, but somebody wanted to see a poll on the two 30 minuttes ago or so.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/05/poll-specter-has-big-lead-over-sestak-in-dem-primary.php

[TheWraith]

1. PA has a lot of moderate Dems. The question is, who votes in a primary.

Primaries tend to disproportionately represent the base of a party, not the moderates--but things can always happen.

[MadBadger]

3. I disagree with you. In PA, those moderates come out strong. Just look at the 08 Primary

[rug]

21. That's only true if you consider Obama left of Clinton.

[AtomicKitten]

36. He is and I do. n/t

[rug]

37. Good for you.

[w4rma]

2. That can change quickly as Sestak gets more name recognition. (nt)

[Cornus]

4. Depends on who's taking the poll

I responded to an email this morning to take part in a similar poll http://sestakvote.boldprogressives.org/p-boldprogressives At that time it was @ 80 to 20 in favor of Sestak.

[quiller4]

7. Actually there was a Dem -sponsored poll that showed

Spector with an even large margin over Sestak.

[MadBadger]

8. That's a straw poll, which is as good as an online poll. They arent scientific at all.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

5. Can repukes cross over and vote in the primary? nt

[rug]

20. No, closed primary.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

25. Thank you. i wonder if in this case that's good or bad. Maybe some would be so pissed at Specter tha...

they would have voted for Sestak to punish him. I guess it doesn't matter.

[Hersheygirl]

6. If Sestak runs, I for one will be voting for him

along with my husband and daughter and encourage all democrats to do the same. I just don't think Specter can be trusted and it is time for him to go.

[ShortnFiery]

9. I think this will CHANGE. The base of the party could easily be fired up for Sestak. nt

[Occam Bandage]

10. Not bad considering the race hasn't started and Sestak has no name recognition.

There's plenty of time. What were Obama's numbers versus Clinton in May '07?

[ClarkUSA]

11. Y'all realize that Sestak is a DLC "New Democrat" like Evan Bayh? He's no liberal/progressive.

Link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Democrat_Coalition

[MadBadger]

13. He is still better than Arlen Specter.

[ClarkUSA]

16. There's still time for correction. Let's see which one moves to the left the most by Nov. 2010.

[MadBadger]

17. No matter what kind of Bullshit correction he offers, Sestak will always be ten times more reliable

Because one is a REAL Democrat.

[ClarkUSA]

24. What's a "REAL Democrat"? Is it one whose vote saved Obama's stimulus bill?

I'm not into purity tests. As long as Spector starts flying straight, he's still our best bet to win the general election.

[MadBadger]

27. He didnt switch because he disagreed with the repukes, he left because he couldnt win as one.

Thats why he isnt a REAL Democrat.

Oh, and Arlen welcomed himself to the party by voting against the budget.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/04/29/new-dem-specter-votes-no_n_193199.html

[ClarkUSA]

31. So what? His vote and lobbying saved President Obama's stimulus plan.

As for the budget, it passed. I'll bet he regrets that vote now and will be voting "aye" on everything from the White House
after this.

And that was before he was thumped on the backside of the head. He's also the most electable in the general election if
Gov. Tom Ridge runs. Sestak hasn't got a chance in hell of winning against Ridge. He hasn't much of a chance against
Specter in the primary, either.

All I'm saying is if Spector starts to vote no differently from DLC Sestak from now on, then there's no real reason for Sestak to
run. Sestak has said as much; he said he'll wait and see. So will I. All this sturm and drang may be a moot point by the end
of the year.

[Bodhi BloodWave]

39. Keep in mind that one of the major reasons he could not win

is the minor fact that around 200k moderate republican voters switched to the democratic party, with most 'his' voters in the other party in a closed primary it makes quite a lot of sense for him to switch party.

[MadBadger]

40. The Thing to remember is that if he was polling at 50% instead of 30, he wouldnt have switched

He said as much himself.

[Bodhi BloodWave]

41. Very true

but that does not change the fact that the vast majority of the republicans that would vote for him switched to the democratic party tho, and he knew that he would have no chance being elected as a moderate with the majority of the remaining republicans in the state being far from moderate.

If i had been in office for a long time and i see a lot of my constituents change parties i would pay notice and look into things, and i would very likely act just as him, switch parties and continue my moderate route as my constituents would have wanted.

sidenote: my personal view is that all parties should be dissolved and people should be elected on issues alone without any party messing things us(tends to lead to party loyalty over issues and that in my eyes is wrong). This goes for both the US and for Norway(and likely most other countries as well, the US seems to need it more tho)

[Occam Bandage]

15. A New Democrat is far, far better than a Republican. nt

[ClarkUSA]

23. ConservaDem vs. Liberal Republican? It's all the same kettle to me. Exhibit A: Evan Bayh

In any case, there's plenty of time for Spector to move to the left. Sestak sure has begun to. If Spector starts to vote the
way we expect him to and if there's not a difference between his and Sestak's voting record from now on, then I will go
with the person best able to win the general election (Sestak is a loser in this regard at the moment, much like Toomey).

[Occam Bandage]

26. Sestak is a consistent upgrade across the interest-group ratings,

though he's by no means perfect. Here's a few in the format "Group: Specter Rating / Sestak Rating." Look through the links at the bottom to find more.

Planned Parenthood: 79/100
National Taxpayer's Union: D/F
US Chamber of Commerce: 100/60
ACLU: 43/91
NAACP: 21/92
Americans for Democratic Action: 30/95
National Journal Composite Liberal Score: 45/62
Secular Coalition for America: C/B+

http://www.votesmart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=53340
http://www.votesmart.org/issue_rating_category.php?can_id=MPA08612

[ClarkUSA]

28. Thanks. Let's see what it shows by the end of the year.

All things about equal, I'll go with the most electable Democrat. Hundreds of thousands of moderate Republicans switched
to the Democratic party in PA last year. All of them are Specter voters. I wouldn't underestimate their impact on the final
outcome, especially if Ridge runs. If he does, only Spector has a chance against him; IMO, Sestak hasn't got a chance.

[MadBadger]

29. Ridge isnt running

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/ridge-out-democratic-prospects.html?wprss=thefix

[ClarkUSA]

34. That's good. I just hope he doesn't change his mind like Toomey did. nt

[Occam Bandage]

30. If Specter improves dramatically, and if

he's doing much better than Sestak against Ridge in the polling, then I'd think he'd be a better choice. Neither are a sure thing this far out.

[ClarkUSA]

35. I concur on all points. nt

[iamthebandfanman]

18. whats arlen ? haha. n/t

[Sugarcoated]

12. Is it possible Matthews may reconsider and run?

He's got name recognition.

[Cha]

14. Luckily things can change fast

in politics. Prez likes to mention that he was "30 points down" early on.

[Beetwasher]

19. And Remember Lieberman

Lamont was way behind too.

[Cha]

22. I'll toast to that.. "Remember

Lamont!" :fistbump:

[Beetwasher]

32. Check This Out:

Quinnipiac University. 4/25-30/2006. Likely Democratic voters. MoE 3.5%

Lieberman 65
Lamont 19


:hi:

[Cha]

33. That was April! Lamont's primary win was

precious and then lieberman's was specious.

[AtomicKitten]

38. The DINO is preferable to the RINO.

Specter is squirrelly and cannot be trusted.

Go Sestak.