Bush may haunt Republicans for generations

[Dark]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/bush-may-haunt-republicans-for.html

Gallup has some fascinating data out, based on more than 120,000 interviews they've completed over the past four months, on the way that partisan identification breaks down by age:



Democrats, somewhat unsurprisingly, have the largest partisan ID advantage among Gen Y'ers, followed by among Baby Boomers. Republicans do relatively well (although are still at a net disadvantage) among Generation X'ers.

What's interesting, though, is what happens when we look at not these abstract generational categories, but rather at the following question: who was President when you turned 18? As annotated in the chart below, the popularity -- or lack thereof -- of the President when the voter turned 18 would seem to have a lot of explanatory power for how their politics turned out later on:




It's become common knowledge that the younger generation is highly predisposed toward Democrats. (Actually, that's not quite right -- they're more predisposed against Republicans than they are toward Democrats -- but the net effects on their voting behavior are probably about the same.) What's more remarkable, though, is how sharp the increase in the partisan ID gap becomes at about age 25. People aged 26-34 are pretty Democratic, put people aged 18-25 are really Democratic.

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More at link.

[FrenchieCat]

1. You may be right,

But then again, the entire world is haunted by George Bush.

[Dark]

10. Then let us hope that we have finally learned our lesson...

... no, no we haven't. Sooner or later we'll do the same dumb shit again.

[FrenchieCat]

12. Of course we will......

[Captain Hilts]

2. GWB made Republicans hate Republicans. nt

[LakeSamish706]

3. He Fucking well should too... Both he and his mis-administration. n/t

[Dark]

11. I hope that people finally realized that the left was right about him.

nt

[muntrv]

4. The GOP has chimpy's stench all over it.

[Cha]

7. cheney and rover keep reminding

everybody..keep it up, idiots.

[Awsi Dooger]

5. I mentioned this topic many times last year during the primaries

I preferred Hillary but there was no doubt Obama was the ticket in terms of potentially remarkable numbers among young voters.

Bush had already repulsed 8 years of youth voters and Obama had greater opportunity than Hillary to lasso 8 more. Combined, that 16 year block can be devastating ammo in future cycles, particularly since the demographics are already moving our way in general, with whites steadily a lesser percentage of the voting block. In a decade or more it can reach the point that only a semi-landslide terrain or severe candidate vs. candidate advantage can rescue the GOP.

Pollster.com broke this down two or three years ago, that voting loyalty is cemented very early. The GOP is held somewhat afloat by voters who came of age during the Reagan '80s.

I've had plenty of arguments with right wingers on other sites, ones who believe the fantasy that political philosophy drifts more conservative with age.

Like I always say in sports analysis, everything tends to drift back to the beginning. Same thing in politics. Advantage our side. :)

[beyurslf]

16. I have heard that argument--that voters get more conservative with age.

It may be somewhat true about some things. Middle age voters are probably more concerned about tax rates than younger voters.I know I look at that now and never did in my early 20's. But, middle age voters are also more concerned about health care, education, childcare, and a host of other things. I don't think this makes people "more conservative" though. Our priorities shift but our ideology remains the same. I certainly don't think older voters are more conservative. I know my grandma was a a very religious woman and she had her personal beliefs. She died in 2001 but even back then she thought arguing over what gay people could do was stupid and a waste of time. She always said she believed what she wanted to believe and didn't care if anyone agreed with her or not. If two guys were happy together, then so be it. After you live your whole life, I guess it is a lot easier to see what things are really important.

[Mariana]

6. I certainly hope so. nt.

[RomanHoliday]

8. How is it that D's have always edged out R's, yet we kept getting our ass kicked..

for that long.

[Dark]

9. Cause some D's voted for R's and others simply didn't vote.

Course, it's a lot more complicated than that. But that's the gist

[sarah553807]

13. because we suck at winning elections

[Dark]

15. This too... eom

[Dont_Bogart_the_Pretzel]

18. But we didn't lose in 2000 and 2004!

[Skittles]

14. bush will haunt Americans for generations

he truly fucked America over

[tanyev]

17. Well, I'll be. He really was a uniter.

Thanks, George!

[Arugula Latte]

19. Ugh. My 38-to-46 cohorts are letting me down.

Gawd, how I hated Reagan and how I hate him still. x(