Interesting link. Clark's proposed electoral count vs Bush

[BobbyJay]

Good stuff.


http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/images/pdfs/clark.pdf

Clark 271

Bush 267

[ewagner]

All speculation at this point.

Encouraging but nothing to hang your hat on yet.

[Renew Deal]

1. I saw this before.

I think TN, NC, MS are all in play for Clark too. So is Ohio

[Josh]

2. That is awfully close -

I don't want this election to be a nail-biter with the possibility of Bush squeaking through. Another close election will mean nothing if Bush wins it because he'll use it as a mandate regardless.

I sense that's where it's headed, though. :(

[goobergunch]

3. He did that for all of the candidates

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/images/pdfs/dean.pdf
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/images/pdfs/edwards.pdf
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/images/pdfs/gephardt.pdf
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/images/pdfs/lieberman.pdf
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/images/pdfs/kerry.pdf

[OhioStateProgressive]

8. some of the candidates(nt)

[mot78]

9. WTF??

I think this website shows Lieberman winning the most electoral votes.

[Josh]

4. Just looked at it more closely - it's just everything Gore won + Arkansas

I think there's more to a Clark candidacy than just that.

[meti57b]

5. it's important to keep in mind ....

with arnie schvantzenagger as governor who threatens regularly to use his celebrity to campaign against our Democratic legislators in their own districts, ... it may become necessary to fight and spend to keep California, Democratic.

[mot78]

6. AZ OH and LA are also winnable

This map just shows Clark winning all of the Gore states plus his state and WV.

[deminflorida]

7. People keep saying Florida is leaning Bush....

That's very much Hogwash....Democrats won this state in 2000 and they'll win again in 2004. As long as Clark is the nominee, we don't need a polarizing candidate against Bush the worlds most polarizing candidate. If Katherine Harris runs for Graham's seat, that's it...it will cause Florida Democrats to run to the polls to defeat her. Jeb has us possibly facing the reality of the first Florida State Income Tax in decades. Horrible, Just Horrible....

It won't be that close, people are pissed down here, and this ain't TEXAS!

[Democrats unite]

10. You got that right!!!

This is one Floridian that is going to make sure his vote counts this time!

[Ksec]

11. agreed

I would also put OHIO in the too close to call states. Bush won by only 3% and Gore didnt touch Ohio in 2000

[AntiCoup2K4]

16. But will the votes count? It is Florida, after all....

OH, and I also fail to see how Clark as the nominee specifically fits the other factors you describe. If the people turn out in droves to vote against Cruella, then it would benefit any Democrat at the top of the ticket. And if Dean were to pick Bob Graham as a running mate, that wouldn't hurt either. So how is the General "required" for a Florida win under your own scenario?

[John_H]

23. Plus, if it's Clark--he maypick up enough military absentees to

tip the balance.

[Clark4VotingRights]

29. Yes, the military votes loom large.

General Clark can/will get them.

[Padraig18]

12. Why is this posted again?

it's already been posted once this afternoon...

[Ksec]

13. Gee were sorry.

[Padraig18]

15. Hmmm...

I always thought that the rule on 'dupes' was pretty clear...

[ClarkGraham2004]

17. please go away

[Padraig18]

18. No, thank you.

But I'll be happy to get your coat and hat for you if you wish to leave. :)

[John_H]

24. Quick ! Lock this! Before people read it!

[Meritaten1]

14. Thanks!

Very interesting post.

[papau]

19. So Dean vs Clark is Clark picks up WV and AZ & loses NH? - and wins?

OK?

It is his best guess.

[John_H]

22. Count the electoral votes

Plus Arkansas--that's 21-4 = 17 vote advantage for Clark

[ClarkGraham2004]

20. They did one for Dean too, he loses to Bush 264-274

I believe. Not 100% on the score, but he loses to Bush.

[10376173]

21. another interesting analysis

The numbers posted on here don't seem to take into account that
whenever a Gov. goes up against a incumbent Pres, the Pres loses

e.g. Carter Reagan Clinton

Here's an algorithim that shows Clark and Dean are the only ones
who can beat Bush

http://members.bellatlantic.net/~vze3fs8i/air/Elections.htm

[MsUnderstood]

25. Florida gets bush--that rings true

Well, jeb is still in the mix of things in florida--couldn't we just kick florida out of the election--give them a time out for screwing up so bad 4 years ago?

[Nashyra]

26. Clark has alot of workers in Nevada

and none are too happy about * lying about Yucca Mountain.

[Donna Zen]

27. Louisiana

is in play for Clark. Also, NC will split its electoral votes this year.

This map is very conservative--and I mean that in a good way--which confirms what I've been thinking. If we run Clark, I don't see how bush wins.

[ClarkGraham2004]

28. I agree. I think the map shows Clark's WORST scenario, actually.

Clark is in play in WV, TN, LA, FL, NV etc.