New TN Poll

[slinkerwink]

New TN Poll
by CA Pol Junkie
Thu Jan 8th, 2004 at 22:28:46 GMT

From Survey USA comes its first Tennessee Poll (Certain Voters, MOE +/-4.3%):

1/5-1/7/04

Dean 27
Clark 26
Other 13
Lieberman 9
Gephatdt 8
Edwards 6
Undecided 6
Kerry 4

http://www.dailykos.com

[ClarkGraham2004]

1. When is Tenn's primary?

[slinkerwink]

2. after Feb.3rd, I think.

[wysimdnwyg]

4. Feb 10th

It was moved up this year to try and make it matter.

[FubarFly]

3. Not surprising.

Dean is running a 50 state campaign. His superior organization is establishing him as a contender in all regions. I've never had the bias that some people on this board prescribe to Southerners regarding yankees. If Dean makes more sense to people than Bush, they will vote for him.

[slinkerwink]

5. and this is the south, a state where Dean isn't expected to lead

so this poll puts to rest the myth of whether clark's military stars will stun the south...

[Maddy McCall]

7. Not hardly...

You are looking at a 1 point difference with a 4.3+/- margin of error.

That puts them both in the lead and it demonstrates that Clark is gaining recognition in the South.

[FubarFly]

8. To be fair,

I think the Gore endorsement may have helped some. ;-)

[ClarkGraham2004]

9. Clark has been running for 3 months

Give him time.

[dave29]

11. yes it was nice

of him to finally decide to jump in ;)

[JVS]

12. That's his own problem

[FubarFly]

13. Clark is suffering from younger brother syndrome.

Yes he may grow with time, but so will Dean.

His late entry is a major obstacle to overcome; it always has been.
I'm not saying he can't do it, only that there are no gaurantees for Clark- even in the South.

[Dookus]

6. Nice to see Clark's statistically tied with Dean

I'm a bit surprised Edwards isn't doing any better.

[slinkerwink]

10. the fact that they're both tied puts rest to the stupid premise that

Dean can't compete in the South.

[asjr]

14. And I hope

those Tennesseans who voted for Shrub in 2000 have been wearing hairshirts ever since. He hasn't done a thing for them.

[OKNancy]

15. I believe that when most people say that they are talking about

the General election, not the primary.

[Maddy McCall]

16. In the general election he can't

People who have said he won't do well in the south are talking about vis a vis Bush.

The primaries are only the first hurdle.

[TacticalPeek]

17. However,

carrying the dem party will not carry the state in any Deep South state.

And we MUST carry one or two.

[ClarkGraham2004]

18. In the General Election, Dean would get demolished in the South

Clark would win Arkansas and be very competitive in TN, LA, WV and FL.

[FubarFly]

20. Dean will be competitive in those states as well.

"The demolished in the South" meme is based on outdated historical data, and biased analysis. The South has been hit hard by the Bush economy. Dean's populist message and amenable gun position gives him an inroad not afforded to some previous Democrats. He is not a far-out, anti-war, radical elitist. His straight talking style and moderate policies will play well in the Southern swing states.

[ClarkGraham2004]

22. pass the kool-aid

[FubarFly]

23. I find your analysis of the situation to be facile,

and out of touch with the reality of a Kool-Aid loving South.

Independent polls confirm that Southern moms love Kool-Aid.


:hi:

(P.S. Come back when you have something substantive to say.)

[TacticalPeek]

27. "The South loves Kool-Aid" meme is based on outdated historical data,

and biased analysis. Especially since all these Yankees moved down here with their chablis and brie and republican hubris.

:silly:

[FubarFly]

30. LOL

For the record Dean is also leading in Texas, Virginia, Florida, South Carolina, and Oklahoma.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/polls_State_Polls_04.html


I wish you luck on the support of your candidate. May the best man win.

[TacticalPeek]

24. And if the media accurately portrayed Kucinich,

he might win some Southern states, too.

Hold not thy breath.

[FubarFly]

25. Convential wisdom is a hard thing to shake.

Especially when it is wrong.

If you want to play the assertion game, we'll be here all night.

[TacticalPeek]

31. What Southern swing state would Dean carry in the GE, and on what basis?

You can guess the basis for Clark in AR.

And with veterans/military bases in LA, Clark stands a chance.

[FubarFly]

33. He has a shot at all of them.

West Virginia is his best bet, because of their strong labor ties, and Dean's gun stand.

Dean has strong backing from the Jewish community in Florida, and his fundraising numbers are impressive there overall. Although with Jeb's shenigans, FL will be tough for anyone.

TN, and LA are two of the more socially liberal Southern states in the sense that the fundis don't completely dominate statewide races. LA military folks are pissed at Bush, so that could be turn out to be a wash, or possibly go in Dean's favor. The Al Gore endorsement does have some weight in TN, but economic issues should carry the day there.

A lot will depend on turnout and registering new voters. In both instances Deans organizational grassroots can make a difference.
Dean currently has a huge advantage over Clark in this area. The key for Dean is to not be branded as an idealogical liberal. If he gets his message through, he will be competitive. Since he'll have the funds and the ground support, I see this as a good possibility.

[TacticalPeek]

34. You could be right.

And at this point in time, I'll certainly stipulate to Dean's organizational prowess.

But the General's thing is building, and fast.

Like you say, the best man winning is best for us all.

[DancingBear]

19. No, slink, it really doesn't

We talk of national GE polls, not primary polls when the fringe votes.

Dean's ability to pull his people to the polls is astounding - trouble is, in the GE that's ALL he'll pull, and you don't win elections that way.

Watch two things - the dynamics of national polling (via region, if available), and the "movement" (NOT % figures) in NH and early southern primary states. If Dean tracks up from poll 1, good for you. If not (like in NH), bad for you.

[slinkerwink]

21. Look at the recent national poll which I put out that has Dean in the lead

[DancingBear]

28. Don't pick and choose

Check trends, not figures. Check multiple polls, identify the overall trend, and go from there.

This is why we are so excited about Clarks numbers in NH. We discounted early polling (due to among other things lack of name recognition and in-state visibility), waiting for trends to develop as the aforementioned factors began to equalize. Now they have (somewhat), so we are gladdened by the developments we see.

If, over time, we see corresponding evidence in national polls (CNN/TIme, etc.) that indicate trending in a positive direction - don't worry. We'll let you know. :)

Until then, though, we work and wait....

[jmaier]

26. I continue to be happily surprised

that the candidate who entered the race 4 months ago and significantly lags on key public figure endorsements continues to campaign well, steadily and gains big traction in the polls. It does prove that endorsements, as nice as they are to get, do not trump plain old hard work.

I have to admit that one of my major concerns when I became a Clark supporter was how well he could hope to do starting well into the 2nd half of the game. He is a very good campaigner. The True Grits Tour was a big hit in TN (Memphis & Nashville) raising visibility, drawing crowds and garnering $$$. I'd say this poll just reaffirms that, at present, it's all Dean & Clark after IA unless something very, very surprising happens in IA -- Go Dean! :-)



Wes Clark. He will make an extraordinary American President.

[slinkerwink]

29. yes, but Dean hasn't campaigned in TN at all---how to explain his

slight lead over Clark? The one word is "organization"---Dean's already got a grassroots organization in every state. This is a 50 state campaign, and Clark needs to be aware of that.

[jmaier]

32. I don't suppose the Gore

endorsement is entirely inconsequential or the "front-runner" status which always accrues a % of undecided voters and then yes the grassroots organization.

Clark, sadly is only running 49 states and no DC campaign but it's a pretty good one so far. :-)

BTW, I'm not taking anything away from Dean; that he's #1 in most later state polls is pretty impressive but if you look at many of them, Clark isn't trailing too far behind. Including places like NM and AZ where he only recently opened official campaign offices -- so it's also grassroots baby!

I'm not to concerned that either of these gentlemen will be able to turn out supporters/organizers/field troops for the GE. They're both pretty strong candidates and * will have all he can handle either way.

[killbotfactory]

35. Dean is obviously imploding...