What percentage of the vote will Kucinich get in Iowa?

[Nederland]

Poll question: What percentage of the vote will Kucinich get in Iowa?

A simple enough question...

[Nederland]

1. Alright

Who voted for over 20%? Fess up...

[ThirdWheelLegend]

3. Alright...

the people who have not given up on progress.

[cryofan]

8. people who like to....

...piss you off!

[mikewriter]

17. About 10%

But his stock went up for me about the debate tonight. i have a lot to think about concerning DK and my support of Dean. I wished DK was more nationally known and supported. I hope he does well In Iowa.

[Nederland]

2. kick for more data

[Capn Sunshine]

4. what he said

:kick:

[goodhue]

19. yes

kick

[Padraig18]

20. 5 days later, a kick?

Oooooooooo-k... :eyes:

[goodhue]

25. why not

only 66 votes so far
a lot more votes out there

[iowapeacechief]

5. Why so few votes in this poll?

Surely more DU members are willing to guess!

[ClarkGraham2004]

9. Kucinich isn't a huge draw.

[WI_DEM]

6. I think he will do surprisingly well

probably 8%.

[Red_Storm]

7. The audience responded well to DK tonight........

I hope it's a sign of things to come........

[no name no slogan]

10. I think it is

I've been hearing overwhelmingly positive reports from MNers who've been down to Iowa. They're reporting that there's a fair amount of Dean and Geph support, but that there's still a lot of undecideds (around 25%!). We're gaining new supporters each day down there. Rumour has it that Iowa City is awash in DK lawn signs-- another great sign of what will happen.

IMHO, if DK finished with over 5% of the vote, he'll beat the conventional wisdom and shatter the whoremedia's expectations. THEN they'll start to treat him as a "serious candidate" who's bringing up the issues the others are afraid to touch.

[Red_Storm]

14. DK is a serious candidate............

but is not being portrayed as one by the corporate media.....

[iowapeacechief]

23. Even five percent...

...would be a Big Surprise given how Dennis is generally dismissed as a much loved non-starter.

[arewethereyet]

11. OK but don't you have to have 15% to have anything ?

I don't live there so the particulars are of little interest to me.

[goodhue]

12. statewide results

Can have candidates registering under 15% on caucus night.
The 15% viability is per precinct.
There is a similar 15% viability at the state convention level, so without 15% candidate will have no delegates going to Boston. But a candidate can nonetheless finish with under 15% statewide (based on representation at precincts where they had 15% viability).

Its late and I'm not explaining it tvery well but hopefully that is clear and correct. Or else someone can help?

[Clark Can WIN]

15. I forgot about that. I think he'll carry some space at some of the

college and city precincts.

[Clark Can WIN]

13. I thought he did pretty well tonight

he could pull out a nice suprise in Iowa. I'd guess somewhere in the 10% or even a little better?

[iowapeacechief]

16. 10 percent would be awesome...

...but expectations are so low, I think a lot less will count as a Big Surprise.

[Red_Storm]

18. During the debate tonight..........

a poll was shown about Iowa voters stating that the majority of those polled wanted the democratic nominee to be against the war.......maybe DK will do well in Iowa afterall.......

[HFishbine]

21. Anything less than 15% is an impossibility

Because of caucus rules. Candidates either get 15% or their supporters move to another candidate or undecided.

[no name no slogan]

22. Yes, it IS possible

The 15% rule applies PER PRECINCT, not to the state as a whole. So, it's quite conceivable that we'll have a number of candidates who have under 15%.

For example, in one precinct, Kucinich has 6/10 votes. That's 60%. However, in a neighboring precinct, he only gets 1/10 votes. That's only 10%, and not viable for a subcaucus.

There has always been a de-facto "15% rule" of some sort in place in precinct caucuses for years. For example, suppose your precinct gets to elect 8 delegates to go on to the County Convention. That would mean that you must have the support of at least 12.5% of your precinct's caucus attendees to get a delegate. If you do not, your subcaucus is "not viable" and its members must join other subcaucuses.

The only difference this year is that the "15% rule" is codified by the party-- but it's always been in play for delegate selection.

[goodhue]

24. indeed

Which explains how Alan Keyes got 14% in 2000, or how Bill Clinton got 2.8% in 1992. For good list of past results, see

http://desmoinesregister.com/extras/politics/caucus2004/pastresults.html