MI-Gov: Tossup Territory

[ccharles000]

EPIC-MRA for Detroit News/WXYZ-TV (5/18-21, "people")
Primaries:


Debbie Stabenow (D): 49
John Cherry (D): 14
Robert Ficano (D): 5
Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 2
George Perles (D): 2
Andy Dillon (D): 1
Don Williamson (D): 1
Undecided: 26
Peter Hoekstra (R): 27
Mike Cox (R): 26
Terri Lynn Land (R): 19
David Brandon (R): 2
Tom George (R): 1
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4.9%)

General:


John Cherry (D): 36
Peter Hoekstra (R): 33
John Cherry (D): 36
Mike Cox (R): 35

John Cherry (D): 34
Terri Lynn Land (R): 35
(MoE: ±4%)

The Michigan Governor's race still looks to be our toughest blue-state gubernatorial retention in 2010. Lt. Gov. John Cherry has the inside track toward the Dem nomination, but he's polling about even with the three likely GOPers. Probably our best shot here would be for polarizing Rep. Peter Hoekstra to emerge battered from a Republican primary over AG Mike Cox and SoS Terri Lynn Land (by consolidating his base in the conservative western part of the state), letting Cherry narrowly win the general... which is what this poll forecasts happening.

The weirdest thing about this poll is undoubtedly the presence of Sen. Debbie Stabenow. I haven't heard about her having an iota of interest in jumping into the Governor's race (although she could do so without danger, as she isn't up for re-election until 2012). Interestingly, she would crush in both the primary and general if she did have any interest in heading back to Michigan. (In hypothetical generals, Stabenow beats Hoekstra 44-35, Cox 43-35, and Land 44-35. Good news, actually, because those are the same numbers the GOPers put up against Cherry, indicating that the GOP may have a ceiling and the electorate has a Dem lean, but that people who haven't heard of Cherry yet are reluctant to commit to him.)

Robert Ficano, who polls third in the Dem primary, is the Wayne County Executive; he too hasn't taken any visible steps toward running. (The poll also looks at general matchups with Ficano; he loses to Hoekstra 35-34, Cox 37-30, and Land 37-30.) Andy Dillon is the term-limited state House Speaker, who has been visibly interested in the Governor's race; however maybe he'll take a look at his 1% share and think about moving over to the MI-11 race (which he's already declined, but, against vulnerable Rep. Thad McCotter, seems likelier to have a happy ending for him).

Results for Cherry are a little better than a poll conducted for Inside Michigan Politics in early March, which had Cherry trailing Cox 41-34 and Land 39-34 (Cherry/Hoekstra wasn't polled). This earlier poll had Oakland County Exec L. Brooks Patterson winning the GOP primary over Cox, Hoekstra, and Land, 22-17-15-12, but Patterson has since said he won't run. Maybe Cherry's visibility has increased in the last few months, but mostly that just seems to be a difference in the composition of the two samples.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5023/migov-tossup-territory

[MichiganVote]

1. Granholm needs to share a little spotlight with Cherry or we're toast.

People want a Milliken look alike.