Federal Review Composite: Bush 321, Kerry 217 (9-21-04)

[phillybri]

http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm

BUSH INCREASES ELECTORAL LEAD
Bush 52.0% – 321 EV | Kerry 46.5% – 217 EV
EV without Toss Up states (under 2% margin): Bush 270| Kerry 217| Toss 51
September 21, 2004

President Bush's post-convention bounce is continuing to show up in the state polling, as he adds 37 electoral votes to his total this week, picking up Iowa (+0.3), New Hampshire (+0.8) and Pennsylvania (+0.7). This is the first time that the Federal Review analysis has shown a Bush lead in Pennsylvania since May 18. While other websites take into account only the most recently reported poll or averages the last three. The Federal Review analysis uses all polls, weighting polls in each successive analysis more heavily than older polls, thereby mitigating the swings that are occasioned by margins of error or varying polling methodology. Thus, before a state can swing from one candidate to another, one of three things must have happened: (1) the most recent poll must be significantly different than earlier polls, (2) there must be several new polls confirming a state's movement or (3) there must have been a long between the previous poll and the most recent one. Pennsylvania changed because of a number of recent polls showing a slight lead for Bush (scenario 1) and New Hampshire changed because it's been a while since the previous polls showing Kerry's lead (scenario 3).

President Bush also leads by more than 2% in states worth 270 electoral votes, just enough to get elected. The biggest surprise, Kerry leads by more than 12% in only 2 states, Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

[phillybri]

1. Kick

:kick:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. why do we want to kick this?

nt