Uh oh, new Iowa Poll Gep 25 Dean 29

[Clark4Prez]

http://www.theiowachannel.com/politics/2750996/detail.html

Out of 600 Iowans surveyed this week, the former Vermont governor has support from 29 percent of Democratic caucus voters. That's 3 percent higher than KCCI's poll in October.

When NewsChannel 8 spoke with Dean, he took the results in stride.

"Polls don't mean anything in Iowa. It's who gets the voters to the caucuses. So, I think the poll is just wonderful, better to be ahead than not, but the truth is, on Jan. 19, that's when the polls really count," Dean said.

Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt is in second place with 25 percent, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry came in third with 18 percent.

[clarknyc]

1. Good news.

In the same poll in October 2003, Dean and Gephardt were tied at 26%.

http://www.theiowachannel.com/politics/2597550/detail.html

[funky_bug]

2. Why now?

Why do the polls suddenly not mean anything, when Dean is going down? I thought it was all about the polls? Hmmm... suddenly, they don't mean anything. Wow. Shock and awe.

[clarknyc]

9. Ummm...

this is good news for the Dean campaign.

[LuminousX]

13. deleted because I'm an idiot

further edited because I'm such an idiot I can't even spell deleted

[funky_bug]

15. Dean said it

In an interview this evening. He was being humble when questioned about his lead in IA. He said the polls aren't important...ah, never mind. It's a link in a thread that's probably off the board now.

[Clark4Prez]

16. Umm, Howard Dean did

See the article, here's the quote:

"Polls don't mean anything in Iowa" Howard Dean

So much for unwarranted assumptions, let's hear it for unwarranted attacks.

[funky_bug]

18. Responded before you deleted

I caught you! Unfounded my ass! But I'll accept your rendering of defeat.

Unfounded... not me. I got enough on facts without going on conspiracy, supposition or plain old child's play.

[hellhathnofury]

3. And we still believe Gephardt about our noble Deanies?

I think Gephardts campaign is getting the old polling blues. They've gone into lash out mode. Poor things.

[LuminousX]

14. Gephardt knows this is his last chance to be something more

if he loses the primaries, he is done for as a politician. He did such a great job in 2002 with his ass tightly attached to Bush's buttocks.

[MIMStigator]

4. Gephart is going to win iowa n/t

nt

[adamrsilva]

12. Great! Dean is now in the lead!

You people are so desperate...

[windansea]

20. could be

exciting..............

[Dookus]

5. This is Gephardt's only real chance

to do anything. If he can win in Iowa, it will boost him a lot in NH, and take a lot of the shine off Dean.

Personally, I'm not a big fan of Gephardt. I don't dislike him, and I respect his years of work defending labor. But I just don't think he'll ever really catch on with the American electorate.

But he's got the most to gain going into Iowa and NH.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

6. Uh-oh!

Chimp 50/ Dean 42

Chimp 50/ Clark 39

[funky_bug]

19. Post your source please

And I'll take more stock in your numbers.

I'll concede I've seen similar numbers recently. Looks like Clark is going up.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

21. Here:

http://www.theiowachannel.com/politics/2750996/detail.html


From the link that started this thread. Didn't you read it?

[funky_bug]

24. Did you?

Guess you missed that little snip about the 4% margin of error. I'd say, that makes our guys about even. And I believe the general is going up up up, is he not?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

26. Did you want me to post all the possible combinations that a

4% moe could produce? Or the one that the poll concluded?

Here's a couple you might like:

Chimp 46/ Dean 46
Chimp 54/ Clark 35

[Clark4Prez]

27. Or you could conclude that it is within the MOE making it a tie

Its just a thought.

[funky_bug]

30. Any number of combinations are possible

But since I'm not a statistical analyst, I'll go with a 5% MOE, and concede that it could be this way or that... you just can't seem to bring yourself to concede it could be THIS way, huh?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

31. If it makes you feel better....

I concede that Clark is leading this poll.

No skin off my back.

[shoopnyc123]

7. Gephardt? Gross!

He was horrible on Hardball tonight! How much pandering can one man do?

[hellhathnofury]

8. You ain't seen nothin' yet.

They're flinging everything they've got.

[in_cog_ni_to]

10. WOOHOO! Go Gep!

Now that IS good news! If Kerry gets tOm Harkins endorsement, this is going to be a VERY tight race.

[hellhathnofury]

11. And Kerry is going to get the Harkin endorsement how?

Why would Harkin endorse someone who's had to borrow 6.4 million against his house to keep his campaign going?

I thought the conventional wisdom was Gephardt or Dean

[NewYorkerfromMass]

17. read the posts in the thread

and try and figure it out.

[w4rma]

22. Fine with me. Dean is ahead and has the better GOTV org. (n/t)

[Clark4Prez]

23. MOE is 5%

That makes Dean and Gep tied.

[MIMStigator]

25. Harken can't endorse Dean now, he's going to lose Iowa

Gephart is going to win

[LuminousX]

32. Yeah, Harken can't, but maybe Harkin will.

[Clark Campaigner]

28. Dean just has a better Get Out The Fraud organization

[Name removed]

29. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Clark Campaigner]

33. maybe you should keep up on the news

Gephardt Aide Accuses Dean of Caucus Fraud Plan

[LuminousX]

34. Fascinating.

[John_H]

35. Holy Shit! Dean down from 19! A 10 pt. per week swing in NH!

Ok. That's it. Stop starting to pay attention America! Stop it! What will we tell the Children?