I saw this on Mark Halperin's The page Yesterday and dismissed it at first but apparently the anonymous note has set DC ablaze.
Any idea who wrote this? My first thought was Mark himself? ROFL. What a loser.
Anyway here it is:
http://www.thepage.time.comESSENTIAL READING: A Close Observer of the Health Care Debate Explains Why ObamaCare Is/Might be in Deep DoodooBy Anonymous:
(Note to readers: Google what you don't understand.)
Things bog down and all these deadlines continue to slip. CBO will need time to score the merge. Meanwhile, despite the sense of inevitability Democrats are far from unified on pay-fors. There is strong Labor opposition to the Cadillac plan tax. Plus, they are going to try and pass a quarter trillion doc fix by waiving paygo and then pretending that health care reform is deficit neutral, which people will see for the farce it is.
And as kumbaya fades, Business is getting increasingly antsy because they know they are paying the bill at the end of the day and there is positively nothing in the legislation that will bring down costs, and they know the main point of the PWC study is dead on. The insurance industry may not be isolated for long. The White House has very successfully wooed many name-brand CEOs with lots of face time, but rank-and-file business groups are returning home.
Plus a re-energized public plan debate is not the winner that liberals think it is. You dig below the surface of the meaningless "do you support giving consumers the choice of a public option" questions and you find strong sense that government is doing too much (TARP, AIG, stimulus, GM etc). People should remember that POTUS righted the ship on this by changing the emphasis from the public plan to how-reform-helps-people-who-already-have-insurance after the Democrats' August recess debacle.
Everyone is for "reform" but here is why this whole enterprise has always been bad politics: At a time when we have 10% unemployment and record deficits, Congress is going to 1) cut Medicare and 2) raise taxes to 3) pay for health care for the uninsured. None of these are popular.
And when McDonnell wins in Virginia despite his encyclical, Blue Dogs and moderates will get even more nervous about midterms. Likely Corzine win gets discounted because it's New Jersey and GOP nominated a hapless candidate.
Nothing final happens before Christmas at the very earliest. Most likely spills into next year. Which means economic numbers and POTUS approval ratings will be determinative. Odds are still clearly in favor of something big passing. But IF this thing goes into 2010, there are several more months of the "jobless recovery," unemployment goes above 10 and POTUS slips below 50, all bets are off.