Woot.....The recession is over folks., WHy the Big DU Shrug?

[Perky]

The worst tailspin since 1929. Done.
Vindication on the Stimulus
Takes Away a big GOP talking Point
Is Budget Positive news.
Boosts Dems a week and a year away from elections.

ANd it is a in not a meager bumps either 3.5% is a huge number.


And Yet DUers seem to be pretty much indifferent. What's up with that?

For those who forgot.....It is Still the Economy Stupid.

[backscatter712]

1. It is progress.

However, the recession is not truly over until the job market unfucks itself, and that's going to take another year.

[The Magistrate]

2. Exactly, Sir: 'Jobless Recovery' Is No Recovery

[Dawgs]

8. Bullshit. No GDP Recovery = No Job Recovery.

Nobody is asking you to stand up cheer with this news. But, you can at least be happy that the Democrats look good today, the Republicans look stupid, and there is hope that things will eventually get better.

That's all we're asking.

[JuniperLea]

13. I think you ask too much...

A simple nod of the head is best in this case. Acknowledge, and move on. There are a lot of people still hurting. It's time to hunker down and keep pushing.

[backscatter712]

14. That's basically what I was doing.

Nodding to acknowledge progress, but also acknowledging that there's still a tremendous amount of work to be done.

[JuniperLea]

24. Yep...

Indeed you were.

[avaistheone1]

15. We don't need any more trickle down b.s.

There needs to be sustainable jobs in THIS country. Good jobs that last beyond the stimulus.

Here are the problems the Obama administration must address:
We need to bring manufacturing jobs back, revisit our trade agreements, and institute tariffs.
India and China protect their jobs with tariffs regardless of their trade agreements.

HOW MUCH MORE DO THE FAT CATS NEED TO GROW THEIR POCKETBOOKS, THEY OWN 95& OF EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY.

[girl gone mad]

28. The GDP number was heavily distorted by cash for clunkers.

I expect it will be an outlier.

[The Magistrate]

32. Unfortunately, Sir, We Do Not Look Good So Long As Unemployment Does Not Begin To Drop

Talking up 'recovery' while unemployment is not on a downward path is a recipe for political disaster. The voting public does not consider the economy in recovery unless hiring picks up, and views claims of recovery as lies until there are more jobs.

[The Magistrate]

30. Self-Delete, For Mis-Placement

[bikingaz]

52. Fed has been tickering with the stock market

It is coming out that the Fed is intervening in the stock market for the last few months to improve the mood of the country. They have been doing this to the tune of $ 30-50 billion a week. That is why things look like are getting better.

from a google hit
http://www.mfi-miami.com/federal-reserve-intervention

and this is not the only one

"Recently, Zero Hedge presented a snapshot analysis of the various securities that made up the triparty repo agreement involving JPM, Lehman and the Fed. We uncovered numerous bankrupt companies’ equities that were being pledged as collateral for what ultimately was taxpayer exposure.

To our surprise, this discovery is not an exception, and in fact in the days immediately preceding the collapse of Bear Stearns first, and subsequently, Lehman Brothers, the Federal Reserve established and refined a program that permitted banks to pledge virtually any security as collateral, including not just investment grade bonds and higher ranked securities, but also stocks of companies, the riskiest investment possible, and a guaranteed way for taxpayer capital to evaporate in the context of a disintegrating financial system, all with the purpose of bailing out Wall Street’s major institutions. Read more about the Federal Reserve’s intervention…

This may very well be the most important financial article you ever read. It makes it clear that the Federal Reserve has been buying stocks and, as a result, manipulating the entire U.S. stock market. This is unprecedented, and Zero Hedge strongly advises small investors to stay away from the stock market until the Fed ceases these activities.

In fact, Zero Hedge says: “US equity markets will continue to be a scam. Therefore, Zero Hedge advises all readers to immediately remove all their capital from the stock market, until such time as proactive steps are taken to remedy these numerous concerns, or alternatively suffer the consequences of not only another Fed inflated market bubble, but the even sadder consequences of its unwind.”

[jeanpalmer]

53. GDP growth is subject to manipulation

Large government spending drives up GDP growth. Cash for clunkers and 1st time home buyer tax credits distorted the number. All you have to do is look at unemployment. If it's rising, as reported today, the economy is in trouble. People tend to pay a lot more attention to the employment situation than the GDP number.

Also reported this week was a fall in consumer confidence and a decrease in new home sales. So it's a mixed bag at best. We're not going to fool anyone with a manipulated GDP number.

[Cha]

3. Not a shrug from this DUer..

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x8721281

[donco6]

4. Well, let's see -

My state, Colorado, is still facing a budget shortfall in this fiscal year of $270 million, and that's after already cutting $580 million. Next year's shortfall will be even bigger. My school district budget is being cut $800,000 in January. We're looking at a decrease in per pupil funding for the first time in decades. Tax collections are off by 3%, which won't be backfilled by the state - another $420,000. Same scenario predicted for next year.

Sorry I have to delay my "woot"-ing for a while.

[Occam Bandage]

5. Growth is necessary for job creation, but is only a means to that end.

Until America is creating high-paying jobs again, any talk of "recovery" is purely academic.

[treestar]

6. Because good news bothers some people

And nothing is ever instant, so there is always something to complain about.

[Jim Sagle]

7. Good news for CEOs. For the rest of us, not so much.

[Zodiak]

21. I completely reject this idea

People LIKE bad news and HATE good news? That is your reasoning?

this kind of logic is nothing but speculation, projection, distance psychoanalysis, and bullshit.

Why don't you go with what people are actually typing instead of making crap up just to insult those that disagree with you? In other words, concern yourself with yourself and shut the fuck up about everyone else.

Posts like this, while written by an adult, sounds like a schoolyard kid jeering at the "weird kids" with mommy jokes. It's unseemly, devoid of any basis in fact, and frankly, not conducive to a good internet community.

[butterfly77]

9. Yes,its the economy...

caused by Stupid Bush.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

10. The small company I work for ---

Just lost another big client yesterday -- the vast majority of our clients are in the banking, financial, and legal sectors -- that makes a loss of over 10k a month in the last eight months. We have laid off two employees, taken pays cuts, and are still at risk of the company folding. It will take us years to recover from this.

Yes, it IS the economy, stupid. Unfortunatly, the economy remains poor for most of us regular folk.

[JuniperLea]

11. It ain't over 'til it's over...

No need to cheer... we all know there's at least a year to go before things stop hurting so bad.

This is no surprise... those of us who were paying attention remember Obama telling us so.

Don't count your chickens, Chicken.

No one here but us chickens...

[avaistheone1]

12. This is more trickle down b.s.

There needs to be sustainable jobs in THIS country. Good jobs that last beyond the stimulus.

We need to bring manufacturing jobs back, revisit our trade agreements, and institute tariffs.
India and China protect their jobs with tariffs regardless of their trade agreements.

[Jennicut]

16. It is a good step in the right direction but many will be in pain for a long time

and I doubt some of these jobs are going to come back. It will be a long, bumpy ride. However, I am glad Obama is President during this time.

[uponit7771]

17. Because GDP & job losses can grow at same time for a long periods if money preasure gets put on....

...corporations and corporations use it for dividends, deferred compensation for it's execs and foreign investment.

A bottom up GDP growth (buying incentives) would be better than top down (trickle down) and you wouldn't have to worry about deflation with it either.

[earth mom]

18. The recession is over for the rich. Big fucking deal. Everyone else is screwed. nt

[Cha]

25. No, you're wrong..everyone else is not screwed..

I know a lot of people who don't fit into your narrow category who are doing a lot better right now..thank you very much.

[phantom power]

19. Because unemployment is still 20%?

:shrug:

[GoCubsGo]

33. Yep. It's not over for me...

Still no job in sight for me.

[Oregone]

20. "The worst tailspin since 1929"

Well, do you think a positive quarter is enough to make people believe that after "The worst tailspin since 1929", the bleeding is on its way to end?

How long after 1929 was it? How many quarters of 3.5% growth do you need for reasonable unemployment levels. It could be years of pain yet to come before a dramatic improvement is seen in everyday lives

[riderinthestorm]

22. Truthfully, I don't trust the economists understand how to interpret the data anymore

I think the standard yardsticks aren't valid anymore because everyone knows there's still too much toxicicity, fraud, and deeply deceptive trading going on. I think anyone whose honest understands this. Unless there's a real turn-around in jobs and more regulation and perhaps even the re-instatement of Glass-Steagall etc. etc., the new GDP number for one quarter makes me pretty wary.

This "feels" to me as though someone finally got enough money to buy paint and they painted the exterior of a crack house. Everyone else on the block is so relieved cuz it looks so much better and surely now it won't be a crack house anymore.... But the dirty dealing and dying are still going on inside, and the stench will be obvious when it gets hot again, and nothing's really changed in the ways that matter.

Just because it's the Dems sitting on top of this quarter's GDP doesn't mean we have anything to "rejoice" over. I'm deeply worried this will simply lull more Dems into complacency instead of doing the hard work of fixing the roots of the financial crisis.

[The Magistrate]

31. Your Suspicion Is Well Grounded, Ma'am

The standard measures are hopelessly distorted by the inordinate size of the purely financial sector in our economic life at present. "Recovery' in the financial sector does not touch the lives of the bulk of the people, but is quite sufficient to move the figures into positive ground.

[Beacool]

23. Call me when the unemployment rate is not almost 10%

Then we'll all have a good reason to celebrate.

Until then.........

:shrug:

[kestrel91316]

26. It's gonna take YEARS to get out of the financial hole Bush put me in.

Yes, clients are starting to come in again for things other than euthanasia, but we have a long way to go and a huge mountain of unpaid bills to deal with.

[AllentownJake]

27. Did you read the report

Or did you hear a number on the news and start dancing like an idiot.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

29. Pretty much all literate people knew this months in advance, so not news

[Proud Liberal Dem]

34. I'll start applauding when we start getting raises again

and prices aren't so damned high on just about......well.....everything. OTOH I suppose being in some general recovery, even if it isn't tangible to most people, including myself, IS much better than where we were a year ago. I was genuinely worried that we were going to have a SECOND "Great Depression", particularly if McCain/Palin somehow won.
:scared:

[phleshdef]

35. Because a lot of people here don't really understand economics, but bitching they know all too well.

[question everything]

36. Sadly, like the Limpdick, some DUers really would like to see a total

collapse of the economy so that we can start from scratch and this time build a better society, a more equitable one. (The RWers just want to crow about "failure.")

Never mind that a lot more people will be hurt by such an event than now and.. the new society will not necessarily be what one wishes.

As with Obama, different people have different wishes and so, as soon as the wish comes true, it has more critics than supporters.

[stevenleser]

37. No, this is great, but, we wont get credit for anything until the job numbers come around.

I think they will and have staked some serious embarassment on the subject, but that is for what we are waiting.

[burning rain]

38. The thing about good news is, it's better than bad news.

But even so, those Democrats who are Democrats, aren't going to get all hot and bothered over what remains largely a Wall Street recovery, just yet.

[quakerboy]

39. So people have their jobs back?

Who here is feeling financially secure?

[Bullet1987]

40. Because I don't feel that it's over yet

When prices of everyday goods go down and stay down I'll be happy about the "end of the recession."

[polichick]

41. Seems premature to celebrate with so many out of work. nt

[Bluenorthwest]

42. The people who say it is over are the same ones who

could not see it coming, so they are not going to argue with my own eyes, and the plight of my neighbors. What's for dinner, more statistics? Not again!

[Kitsune]

43. Because GDP numbers don't mean anything.

They can say the economy's growing all they want, but when the real unemployment rate is around 18% they can throw out big numbers all day long and it's just an exercise in mental masturbation.

[impik]

44. Let me explain you why the indifference

See, Barack Obama took the GDP from minus 6.4 to plus 3.5, in six months. And that is a problem in the pure world, because the pure world really dislike Barack Obama.

Is the crisis over? Far from it. It will take a very long time to get back to somewhat reasonable unemployment numbers. But were we a whisper away from a huge catastrophe back in January, and now we can actually see some light at the end of the tunnel? Yes and yes. Obama did it, and funny enough, many many in the left still didn't hear that the primaries are over, and that Obama's success is actually a good thing. But no, in the pure world, Obama's success is not a good thing at all.

[AllentownJake]

46. Maybe if you actually read what people were saying

instead of making up your own reality you wouldn't say stupid things.

[onenote]

45. for those that somehow think unemployment should be dropping at the same time GDP is rising

A little history:

July 1981-August 1982 Recession: Unemployment at start of recession was 7.2; at the end of the recession it was 10.8. While the recession ended, unemployment stayed above 10 until June 1983 and it wasn't until June of 1984 that it was back down to 7.2.

July 90-March 91 Recession: Unemployment at the start of recession was 5.5. In March 1991 it had climbed to 7.4. Even after the recession ended, it continued to climb and fluctuated around 7.6-7.8 until falling below 7 in June 1993. Didn't get back to 5.5 until December 5.5

March 2001 - November 2001 recession. Unemployment in March 2001 was 4.3; it was 5.5 in November. Even though the recession had ended, unemployment continued to climb, hitting 6.3 in June 03. The closest it ever got back to 4.3 was hitting 4.4 in December 06.

Two take aways: First, while the fact that the GDP is on the upswing it doesn't mean that unemployment has peaked or will necessarily recover as quickly as we'd like. Second, those who seem to think that the economy isn't improving because unemployment is not recovering as quickly as we'd like are mistaken about economics and history.

[AllentownJake]

47. Most of us realize this

However, some of us read the report. Here is my conclusion. GDP is being boosted by government spending and tax incentives. These were financed by debt and cannot go on forever.

The tax incentives have a law of diminishing returns and the government spending has political will.

The hope is that when the government spending is reduced that the private sector picks up the flack. There is nothing in this report to indicate that happened this quarter.

[onenote]

50. I read the report but don't view it as negatively as you do I guess

Was the Cash for Clunkers program a big factor in GDP growth. Yes. But most other measures showed improvement, often marked improvement.

The Cash for Clunkers program was largely responsible for a 22 percent increase in durable goods purchases. While not as impressive purchases of nondurable goods also showed improvement increasing 2.0 percent in the third quarter compared to a decrease of 1.9 percent the previous quarter. Services jumped from an increase of 0.2 percent to an increase of 1.2 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment was still decreasing but the situation was improving: a 2.5 percent decrease compared to a 9.6 percent decrease the previous quarter. The decrease in nonresidential structures also was cut almost in half 9.0 percent v. 17.3 decrease. Equipment/software: a nice jump to a 1.1 percent increase v. a 4.9 percent decrease the prior quarter.


Other examples: real residential fixed investment increased 23.4 percent compared to 23.3 percent decrease the previous quarter; real exports of goods and services increased 14.7 percent whereas they had decreased 4.1 percent the prior quarter. And real imports of goods and services increased 16.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 14.7 percent.

There are other examples and the picture they paint is of a economy that is improving, maybe not as quickly and as strongly as we would like, but improving. And while certain improvements were spiked along by things like the cash for clunkers program and the housing rebate, the improvements were not limited to those areas.

[AllentownJake]

51. If you back out

The cash for clunkers which accounted for 1.66% of the GDP and the increase in domestic spending by the governement you have about a 2% decrease in GDP. It is moving in the right direction however I'd hesitate to call the recession over at this point.

The areas of concern for me was inflation (which will be a problem shortly)

There was a slight increase in commercial real estate (2.5%) and Business equipment and software 1.1%

I think those numbers better reflect how the private sector is doing. Hopefully last quarter was the bottom.

[Better Believe It]

48. Whoopee! The Great Recession Is Over! Happy Days Are Here Again!

All right .... no more gloomy faces on DU.

Now you whining naysayers who can't find a job or are about to be laid-off .... put on a happy face! The bankers are making billions again and the stock market is up! Let's celebrate!



Click and singalong with the rest of us in a rousing chorus of

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!

http://www.smart-central.com/happydays.htm

[joeycola]

49. Not indifferent, I just do not believe it is over.

[TankLV]

54. Dead Cat Bounce.

This almost EXACTLY parallels the time and magnitude of the "recovery" from the crash of 29...

Why this MAY be "good" news, many fear that the worst is yet to come.

Don't forget, all the players who BROUGHT US/CAUSED this mess ARE STILL IN CONTROL and are now back to doing THE SAME and EVEN WORse THINGS than that which brought us this mess!!!

Very little has changed, IMO.

The CROOKS are still running things, only now with OUR money - and they have LEARNED NOTHING!!!