NY-23 POLL: Owens 33 (-2), Scozzafava 21 (-9), Hoffman 32 (+9)

[jefferson_dem]

:scared:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/10/29/798488/-NY-23:-Hoffman-surges-at-Scozzafavas-expense

[WI_DEM]

1. It's a GOP district. My guess is that the conservative candidate will win.

that will empower somebody like Palin who endorsed the conservative. And if we lose in NJ and VA that day the corporate media will try to interpet all of this as a referendum on Obama.

[AllentownJake]

2. It will be a sign for 2010

If unemployment is still 10+% on election day in 2010 we have a two party system. As such one party's fortune rises one party's fortune falls.

[WI_DEM]

3. Well, yes I've been saying that too many people around here are optimistic about 2010

it all depends on where the economy is at that time. You're right if we are still looking at unemployment at 10% it will not be good for dems.

[AllentownJake]

4. Nothing else will matter

Even if the stimulus bill prevented it from being 15% it won't matter.

They will be attacked for wasting money and focusing on Health Insurance when the economy was in trouble. Oh and the bailouts...don't forget about the bailouts.

[AzNick]

10. It will be a sign for 2009

And unemployment WILL hit 10% then go down, but never to 5%, closer to 6 or 7%.

I have predicted this already.

Jobs are going to come back slowly.

Expect Obama and the dems to be below 50% until mid-2010 when jobs pick up, we are out of Iraq, Guantanamo is closed and more good news abound.

People will also get more pissed at the reps.

[AllentownJake]

11. The most optimistic estimates I'm hearing

is a peak of unemployment in the summer of 2010. If you have some data I'm missing I'd like to see it.

[Jennicut]

5. Why is this seen as a sign for 2010? If anything, it represents the Rethug party splitting in half

between the moderate side and the more conservative side. It is a conservative district to begin with but the Dem is still ahead? A Repub held the seat before. This is utter nonsense that this is bad for the Dems in 2010...yes, the Dems must win every election held out there, even the seats once held by Rethugs!

[AllentownJake]

6. There will be primaries in 2010

The New York race didn't have a primary.

If the democrats can't beat a split GOP in a GOP leaning district than we are possibly in some trouble.

People are going to be angry if the job situation is similar in a year as it is today. In a two party system incumbents pay when the economy is bad.

[Jennicut]

7. "In a GOP district". Exactly. It is a conservative district. And the Dem is essentially

tied with the 3rd party conservative candidate. We will lose seats but most times the party in control of the WH loses seats. 2002 and 2004 were exceptions to that trend because Bush had many people in fear from what happened on 9/11.

[AllentownJake]

8. I'm not making a moral judgement on it

I'm stating facts and giving my opinion. I don't base my opinion on what I wish the world was.

[quiller4]

9. Owens is a moderate-conservative Dem who is gaining support

with small business owners who tend to be more pragmatic that ideological. He was a key person in the job development efforts after the base closure in Plattsburg. He has picked up key media endorcements this week and I think he is likely to pull this one off. The business community was off-put by Scozzafava's ties to labor and Hoffman is an ideologue who appeals to the teabaggers but not to the small business crowd. He has also made some strong anti-Catholic statements that are coming back to haunt him because the social conservatives in Clinton and Franklin Counties are mostly Catholic. As a result Owens has picked up support in the northern-most communities.

I give this race to Owens in part because he has the best numbers among female voters of all ages but especially among women over 50. Age and gender are likely to be key in this district's results.

I follow this remote district because my husband was born in Plattsburg and still has family in Au Sable, Mooers, Mooers Forks and Woods Falls.