Public option "likely would play a minuscule role" in changing health care

[Better Believe It]

Analysis: Public Option Might Play Minor Role In Changing Health Care
By Eric Pianin, Mary Agnes Carey and Julie Appleby, KHN Staff Writers
Kaiser Health News
October 31, 2009

For all the controversy over a government-run insurance option, the program outlined in health overhaul legislation likely would play a minuscule role in efforts to expand health care coverage, according to many health care experts and lawmakers.

Of the 45 million uninsured Americans that congressional Democrats and President Barack Obama want to help over the next decade, only six million, or 13 percent, would obtain coverage by enrolling in a public option, the Congressional Budget Office concluded in an analysis of the House Democratic bill.

And that number could shrink because states may decide to opt out of a public insurance plan, an escape clause that's likely to be included in the Senate plan.

“The politics of this issue is totally disproportionate to its likely impact one way or another,” said Bruce Vladeck, a former administrator of the federal agency now called the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

No matter what the states do, the government-run plan is not likely to attract a large membership, at least according to the CBO. The CBO reasoned that the plan may not be able to offer a price advantage – in part because the House bill requires a government-backed insurer to negotiate payment rates rather than dictate them to hospitals and doctors.

If the number of people in the public plan turns out to be six million in 2019, that would work out to an average of 120,000 per state. But that number probably would be smaller in the smallest states, perhaps totaling just tens of thousands.

http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/Stories/2009/October/31/health-insurance-public-option-negligible.aspx

[napi21]

1. The CBO is a smart group, but their chrystal ball isn't any better

than yours or mine. There's no way to know what pmts they are going to be able to negotiate, or how good theservice is going to be. If people who enroll in the public plan are very happy with their coverage...especially those who actually use it...they'll tell their friends and the program will expand resulting in a better bargaining position on pmts to the medical community. I think we also have to remember that the CBO is a VERY conservative group. I don't mean Pub, I mean they always guess on the low side rather than be too optimistic.

[Laelth]

2. Here's hoping this bill goes down in flames. It's worse than doing nothing. n/t

:dem:

-Laelth