Unemployment turnaround likely at start of 2010: Geithner

[ProSense]

Unemployment turnaround likely at start of 2010: Geithner

WASHINGTON (AFP) – High US unemployment, which has lagged in an otherwise rebounding economy, likely will begin rebounding early next year, US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Sunday.

"Economists say... that they think you'll start to see net jobs created at the beginning of the year," Geithner told NBC television, adding that the US economy could see jobs added "in the first quarter some time."

The US economy is suffering the deepest recession in decades with crushing unemployment of just under 10 percent.

Officials said the US employment picture might have been even worse, and released data last week showing that President Barack Obama's economic stimulus plan has so far saved or created more than one million jobs.

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Interesting!

[Tansy_Gold]

1. Uh. . . . . .

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[ProSense]

3. This is exactly why I posted it, to get reaction. n/t

[DJ13]

2. Sure Timmy, whatever you say

[depakid]

4. Equally likely that the half measures in the stimulus will result in a double dip

recession, with flat unemployment numbers.

[ProSense]

5. Now, all we have to do is wait and see. n/t

[depakid]

10. Yep.

The wild card is petrol prices.

[mkultra]

20. recent reports show that a couple of refiners

have shutdown production on lower demand.

[PretzelWarrior]

6. of course. the stimulus was timed to do just that

[jgraz]

7. The solution is to increase unemployment by exactly one

or two, if you kick Summers out as well.

[The Magistrate]

8. Unemployment Predictions By Treasury Secretaries, Ma'am, Are Generally Over-Optimistic

If this one does not prove out, there will be very harmful political consequences....

"A pessimist says the glass is half empty. An optimist says the glass is half full. An engineer says the glass is twice as big as it needs to be."

[dkf]

9. Yeah I'm a bit skeptical.

I guess Obama thought he had solved the economy when he put in the original stimulus package and so he moved on to healthcare. I think he made a big mistake.

[AllentownJake]

11. This Genius

"Unemployment is worse than almost everybody expected. But growth is back a little more quickly, a little stronger than people thought," he said.

Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/01/geithner-on-meet-the-pres_0_n_341390.html

The he is Geithner. Ok, Timmeh you probably had about 4 times the number of economic courses that I had, and the mainstream sentiment you subscribe to is that GDP growth is first than hiring. So if you were predicting growth not to recover as quickly, how the hell is the unemployment rate a surprise to you?

How did you not think that the lagging indicator wouldn't get worse when you were projecting the leading indicator to recover later.

Timmeh thinks everyone is stupid.

[ProSense]

12. What does that have to do with the OP? n/t

[AllentownJake]

14. Geithner is like a McNamara

Intelligent man who has been pretty much wrong on everything he ever predicted and unable to realize the severity of any problem he has been charged with or the severity of the consequences till it goes Nuclear.

[mkultra]

21. im not sure i even understand your post

The principles make sense to me. how does the GDP today effect unemployment from yesterday. I think you have it backwards.


The unemployment numbers got higher than they predicted by about 1.5% Some of that is due to the continual extensions of unemployment bennies which weren't figured into the initial models( at least that's what they said themselves). Their prediction all along has been that the recession would stabilize middle/late this year and we would start to see a turn around in jobs in early 2010. The 3.5 growth in GDP this quarter was pretty surprising in size and speed.

If they they missed the UE numbers low and missed the GDP growth numbers as low, that should tell you that they are modeling conservatively. What about that doesn't make sense to you?

[AllentownJake]

30. If things recovered faster than they expected

and they under estimated unemployment that means they were being liberal on the effect of GDP growth on jobs and conservative on recovery...not conservative on both.

[mkultra]

31. well, i guess thats true actually.

but it still doesn't explain your point.

[AllentownJake]

32. Geithner is an asshat

who always gets the important things wrong because what is important to Timmeh Geithner and what is important to most Americans are two totally different things.

[mkultra]

33. is you say so, but how about you explain what you mean

as far as I'm concerned, the obama administration has made every right move on economic recovery and frankly, i haven't seen any one present a lucid enough point to change my mind on the policies chosen. I see a lot of dis-attached bitching and complaining from people who only understand one segment of economics. Ive seen Krugman disagree with the level of stimulus and Ive seen Roubini agree.
I personally think anyone who completely trusts one persons view as being foolish but i understand that those with a limited understanding of economics have to trust someone.

So i guess ill just get back to the point. What exactly are you trying to say in your post because it wasn't coherent to me.

[AllentownJake]

34. If you are happy with the economic policies

Than there is no way you would possibly understand. If you are happy that the too big to fail were temporarily re-inflated you can't understand

What you are in right now is called the eye of the storm. Do a little research on the mortgages issued in the past 4 years and the commercial real estate loans CMBS that are rolling over in 2010 and you will understand better what some of us are talking about.

Also look up the PE ratio of the S&P 500.

[mkultra]

37. well, ive done alot more than "a little research"

commercial MBS roll overs are of very little concerns. Ive heard this argument before and i watched someone shred it to pieces with simple logic. Its like a virus that crops up once in while. Im guessing that some blogger somewhere is pushing this doom and gloom over one aspect of derivatives.

Additionally, are you really trying to claim that the S&P PE is an indicator? I think your a little confused about what effects this index. Lets imagine for second that PE is calculated by price divided by earnings. If you understand that the recent recession crippled the earnings of most companies in America, you should then see why the number would spike when we have a recession. The fact that the S&P selection has changed over time and that the market is far bigger and worth more than ever will make these peaks higher and higher every time we have a recession.

Here are two charts regarding PE that should be of interest:


first, the current.
http://www.multpl.com/

And historical.


Try to look past your pre-existing expectations and see not what you want to see but what the charts are telling us.

[rhett o rick]

13. Likely? nt

[Kdillard]

15. We'll see. I hope he is correct.

[lib2DaBone]

16. How can you have a recovery if we do not produce anything?

Here's what Obama needs to do:

1. Bring Troops Home

2. Get out of NAFTA and GATT

3. Reward Companies that bring jobs back to America

4. Start a massive infrastructure rebuilding program. (and this doesn't mean just installing new SMART electric meters that gouge the public)

5. Impose a 1% Tobin Tax on all financial transactions that Goldman Sacs and the Banksters thrive on... this will bring in BILLIONS.

6. Cancel all Hb1v Visa workers. Promote a high wage.. high tech economy.. instead of a race to the bottom

7. Help family farmers and food producers and get Monsanto and ADM off their backs

8. Build High Speed Rail and promote rail commerce

9. Reign in the CIA, TSA, DEA and Homeland Security. Quit being policemen of the world.

10. Raise interest rates 2% immediately to stabilize the US Dollar.

[RC]

18. Absolutly correct!

Without manufacturing there can be no recovery. Without manufacturing we will just shuffling every decreasing amounts of money from pocket to pocket till there is nothing left to shuffle.

[mkultra]

22. I'm not sure i understand what you mean.

I am constantly amazed at this statement. we are the WORLDS LARGEST manufacturer. and no, military does not account for the size of US manufacturing.


We make more shit than china and they have 4 times more people then we do.

[treestar]

24. We do

We are the leading manufacturer in the world.

[Ikonoklast]

29. And the third-largest exporter on the planet.

Most of the world would be happy to have HALF the manufacturing base that the United States has.

I hate it when people post 'we don't make anything here anymore'.

Except for locomotives, power plants, heavy equipment, airliners, farming equipment, gas turbines....

[backscatter712]

17. Not that I have much faith in him, but for everyone's sake, I hope he's right.

I will acknowledge progress has been made - we're merely in a deep recession, not Great Depression 2.0, but we've still got a long way to go.

[Stevepol]

19. I for one hope his prediction proves to be entirely false -- FOR HIM.

As for the rest of the country, as soon as he and Larry Summers are out and the policies they've pursued are reversed, the unemployment will begin to lessen and the sooner the better.

[ProSense]

23. That makes no sense. n/t

[cherokeeprogressive]

25. Please tell my that you didn't expect him to say otherwise.

By turnaround, do you mean he's saying that instead of announcing hundreds of thousands of new unemployment claims, he's predicting that he'll be able to announce a positive employment number?

[Zoeisright]

26. Fingers crossed.

I hope!

[DrToast]

27. You know what this thread reminds me of?

Earlier in the year when Bernanke said the economy would start growing again in the second half of the year and nearly everyone here dismissed him.

[Clio the Leo]

28. My thoughts exactly. NT

[Peacetrain]

35. Heads Up..That is what they have been saying at the White House all along.. if anyone bothered

to listen.. That it would be the first part of 2010 to get the money in to small businesses and get the employment part of the recovery going again.. that is why they kept putting the extension of unemployment benefits going.

[Bluenorthwest]

36. To even make up for the losses we need to be adding

tens of thousands of jobs a month, but we are in fact still seeing more people become unemployed than become employed. 'Saved or created' is a term I love. I also love hearing figures like 'more than a million' from number experts. It means they have no idea of the real figure. Words where numbers belong are a red flag deluxe.
Timmy is a tool.

[SemiCharmedQuark]

38. Well, that makes me feel better.

When has Geithner ever been wrong before?!

:silly: