I'm curious what people think of my previous analysis of 2008 election

[PretzelWarrior]

Below is the link to my previous post as well as some of what I had written in that one. The math still looks good to me despite the recent dips in Obama's popularity.

I find it intersting that the White House and the GOP minority opposition both probably have it right that either passing health care or failure to do so will send a very strong message about Obama's effectiveness and could determine how things go in 2012. Obviously, many other things could happen between 2010 and 2012 that will be a huge influence, but right now health care is the big thing.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7854025

First, McCain won 6 states with 60% or more of the popular vote. Those states only represent a grand total of 31 electoral votes.

Second, Obama won 10 states (and Washington DC) with 60% or more of the popular vote. Those states and DC represent 153 electoral votes. That means with the goodwill he will no doubt enjoy as he attempts to dig us out of the hole we're in, he's only going to need 114 more electoral votes to get to 270 next term.

(For your information, the "over 60" spots are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Hawaii, and Washington D.C.)


That is a tremendous advantage for Obama.

For states with strong leans one way or the other (from 55% to 59% popular vote) I see no major trouble spots for Obama and no major areas of likely gain from this year in that batch of states. I'd say Obama will want to focus on Nevada and New Mexico as those states are growing and in close proximity to another one he could bring into the fold if things go right--Arizona. The strong lean states for Obama total 95 electoral votes (giving him a total of 248 thus far)

(For your information, the strong Obama lean states are: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Maine, Washington)

.......continued at link above!

[NRaleighLiberal]

1. As I've heard on Hartmann and other circles, problem is disparity between population

and power re number of Senators. So Montana and Wyoming, with hardly any people (relatively speaking), have equal weight to New York and California. It means that the states that tend to be red have inordinate power.

time to modify the system! It isn't working!

[depakid]

8. Unfortunately, that would require a Constitutional Amenrdment which is impossible

So the US is stuck with this structural dysfunction- and its consequences.

[PretzelWarrior]

9. I don't see it as a dysfunction. it was set up to protect smaller colonies

so they would have one house of the bicameral Congress where they would stand on equal footing with other colonies/states.

Not only will it not go away, it is beneficial. You may appreciate it more if the reduction of Northeast populations continues and there are a number of small population blue states in the coming decades.

[depakid]

10. Dysfunction is probably a euphimism- antiquated, obsolete and an utter failure

is probably more in line with today's reality- and it will prove even more so once Citizens United v. FEC opens up the corporate money spigots later on this year.

Doing away with the arcane rules would help- but that's about as likely as an Amendment.

Fact is, there's a reason why no nation one besides Liberia and the Philippines uses this archaic model (and only through historical accident). It essentially makes the country ungovernable- unable to respond to problems in a timely and effective manner.

[AllentownJake]

2. We have no way knowing what 2010 will look like let alone 2012

Unemployment, Afghanistan, Budget Deficits, Falling Dollar.

We are lucky now because people blame George W. Bush for their current problems, if the problems continue at some point the blame will be pivoted towards the President for not doing enough to fix them.

Grap a Mop will work in November of 2009, it will not be a good slogan in November of 2010.

[PretzelWarrior]

3. you seem extremly negative in most things about Obama

so you think he isn't doing enough.

What do you think are the sure fire things he can work on and achieve that will assure he has an opportunity for a full 8 years?

[JuniperLea]

6. Only the truly stupid will do that...

What we have here is Bush's Depression. Bush broke everything. It was already broken when Obama took over. If what Obama is doing fixes it, we'll see a miracle... that is how severely broken we are... it will take a miracle.

What you are saying is that if Obama doesn't work a miracle, people will like him less.

I call bullshit. I think there are more intelligent people in American than that... the Idiocracy hasn't completely taken over. We are still heading in a better direction than the path BushCo set us on.

[AllentownJake]

11. One mistake I never make

is under estimating the stupidity of the American people.

[JuniperLea]

4. Yep... and because it will work in Obama's favor...

I am getting the feeling that the GOP will start their campaign to do away with that old, antiquated system of electoral votes.

[denem]

7. Plus the X Factor : Teflon. Poeple like Obama more than his politics,

Things like the WH Trick or Treat bring lasting (even if unconsious) goodwill.

[HopeOverFear]

5. I've been watching videos from a year ago

of the election celebrations. Such a wonderful time.