An Apology to those I called dumb bastards last night

[AllentownJake]

I'm seeing this from a different view point than others right now. Outside of the City of Allentown the democratic party was creamed in the local elections with the exception of a 51-49 county executive race which should have been a 60-40.

A good progressive democrat almost lost to a Tea Bagger. He has a record of keeping taxes low and improving County efficiency services. He almost lost to a Right Wing Pastor who has had no experience in government. Bigger than being a disaster for my party, that would have been a disaster for where I live. That Pastor was outspent 5-1.

Every county council candidate lost in the suburbs. Big time. We are talking about a 25% vote differential. They had a funding advantage as well.

My Mayor won, who I consider a friend and a genuinely good guy, but in the city the primary is the General Election.

The Lehigh Valley was turning blue the past 3 elections, yesterday it was bright red outside the city limits of Allenton, Bethlehem, and Easton.

Democratic suburbs voted republican, and it wasn't the candidates. All of the people running were strong community figures with solid records with money in their accounts and a decent GOTV effort.

So you tell me what is going on.

Last time I checked we are on the same team.

[Peacetrain]

1. Mid term elections...

There are many more democrats than republicans.. There really are, but we have problems getting our people to turn out mid terms.. always have.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

5. And this isn't even mid-term.

It's off-year, compounding the problems significantly.

[Peacetrain]

7. Exactly... off years are even worse..

[AllentownJake]

10. 3 off year election cycles of solid gains

Followed by a blood bath?

[Peacetrain]

13. What blood bath?

[AllentownJake]

14. My county has been trending democrat for the past 8 years

and this election cycle, 8 years of gains were nearly wiped out in one election.

[Peacetrain]

16. So what is different in your county... start with that

I do not know your county. Now the NY23.. that was a blood bath because that district held since the civil war.

County elections are serious get out the vote elections. Are the local republicans better organized now?

Have they been hitting the nursing homes? (we had the happen locally)

The republicans are ready to scrap and fight now. We are sort of sitting on our laurels. One of the core movement in the republican far right is local elections. Get your ear to the ground, if this change came on suddenly.

Good luck

[AllentownJake]

18. Could be the church thing

A right wing pastor may have hit up the local right wing church circut.

However, our state wide Judges in PA also all went down in flames and the County to the north had a similar rejection of democrats, and that county is bluer than Lehigh.

[ClarkUSA]

15. "bloodbath"? Dems gained 2 House seats, one of which had been Republican since 1852.

In other news, Charlotte, NC gets its first Dem mayor in 22 years.

[AllentownJake]

17. If you read my OP

I'm talking about what happened in PA last night.

I forgot to add all the democratic judges lost.

[ClarkUSA]

19. Sounds like the Democrats in PA got out-organized by the GOP on the ground.

[uponit7771]

20. RIGHT!!! The OP should stop personalizing this election and sit on a chair or something

[AllentownJake]

21. We spent more money

and had a very good GOTV effort.

[harkadog]

38. Dems did not gain 2 House seats

The CA seat was already ours and it was a solid district that had no chance to go R. NY 23 was carried by Obama with 53%. Hardly a solid R district. Pieces of what is now NY 23 have been represented by Dems until the 1980s.

[Ian David]

2. The only ones turning out in large numbers are the 25% who are Teabaggers.

This election was their first chance to do something other than try and get a cop to shoot them.

[Jennicut]

9. LOL. And they failed in NY.

[HamdenRice]

3. And this is the Obama administration's fault, how? Friends don't let friends drink and blog.

Did you not see how the Republicans, teabaggers and msm demonized health care reform?

And yet, the purists think it's now time for the administration to tack to the left and throw out everything accomplished in Congress so far, demand single payer, and take away everyone's existing private insurance?

Wow, that's great. What would the next elections look like if they did that?

Friends don't let friends drink and blog.

[AllentownJake]

12. Tracking to the right seems to be working great

I'm sure if the mid-terms hurt, the corporatist will blame the liberals.

[PVnRT]

26. I guess surrender is the best option, then

:eyes:

[leveymg]

4. Democratic activists didn't turn out the vote this time. Discouraged by Congressional mishandling

of health reform and Blue Dog obstructions.

I know how you feel. I live in VA. This will happen again if we don't cut the deadwood and corporate clones out of leadership posts, and get some real reform legislation passed.

[ClarkUSA]

11. It's an historic trend that the losing party in the GE wins the NJ/VA governorships.

Exit polls from NJ and VA contradict you that it had anything to do with "Congressional mishandling". 60% of both electorates
said their vote had nothing to do with President Obama or his policies. Meanwhile, equal amounts of partisans showed up to vote
and cancelled each other out. Swing voters went as they always do -- against the incumbent/incumbent party in power.

As you're in VA, read here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x8732501

In other news, Charlotte, NC gets first Dem mayor in 22 years, hotly contested Palin/Beck axis candidate loses NY-23 (the district
has been in GOP hands since 1852) and we pick up a House seat in CA.

[leveymg]

25. Maybe so about historical trend in VA, but the 60/40 defeat is not typical. Nor is low Dem turnout.

In 2008, Obama received 52.6 percent of the nearly 3.7 million votes cast in Virginia's presidential contest, about 2 million votes. He is now viewed favorably by 44 percent of Virginians, down about 8 percent. By comparison, Deeds polled only 815,000 votes, only 41 percent of the total votes cast last night, and a mere 40 percent of the total votes Obama received in Virginia last year. That is a huge drop-off, even considering the lower turnout in the Governor's race compared to the '08 Presidential race.

Historically, VA Governor's races turn out somewhat fewer voters than Presidential contests, averaging about a 15 point difference. The turnout in the state for the '04 and '08 Presidential elections was 62 and 68 percent of the registered voters, while across the state in the 2005 gubernatorial election, turnout was approximately 45 percent. Last night, voter total was about 3 million votes, out of the 5.4 million registered voters, about 55 percent turnout, which is a relatively high turnout for a Gubenatorial race. Historically low turnouts were in '97, when turnout was about 48 percent of registered voters, the lowest for a Virginia governor's race since 1965. Unfortunately, a disproportionate percentage voted Republican for state-wide offices, which is a big change from four years ago when Tim Kaine won with 52 percent about the same percentage polled by Mark Warner in 2001.

The last candidate for Virginia governor to win more than 60 percent of the vote was Democrat Albertis S. Harrison Jr., who in 1961 won 63.8 percent.

Lessons learned from VA - 1) turn on the base or the Dems will lose more elections; 2) this was not a typical VA election by recent standards. Lots of Republicans turned out, while Democratic-leaning voters didn't.

[ClarkUSA]

27. Deeds was a lousy candidate. Moran would have given McDonnell a run for the money.

McDonnell was spared a bruising primary. That explains the exaggerated victory numbers but VA's historical trend still holds.

[leveymg]

28. I agree. But, you know, Jody would have won if she were at the top of the ticket.

I hope she goes for it in four years or runs for Congress.

[ClarkUSA]

29. Jody?

[leveymg]

35. Jody Wagner. She was Dem candidate for Lt. Gov.

Jody Wagner for Virginia » Candidate for Lieutenant Governor ...
http://www.jodyforva.com/ - Cached - Similar -
About Jody
Issues
Candidate for Lieutenant Governor
Press News
Videos
Action
Photos
More results from jodyforva.com »

[AspenRose]

32. *Nodding*

[Clio the Leo]

6. lol, that's RIGHT buddy ... we ARE On the same team......

.... and since I dont want to go out like the GOP did in NY-23 last night, dont you forget it either! ;)

And no matter how frustrated anyone might become over what they perceive to be the President's slow pace, just remember.....

It could always.........



be...........
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_4YFhK87NXPE/ShjVjMYZhJI/AAAAAAAACiQ/n86XHBU-8xY/s400/Liz+Cheney2.jpg


.... worse!

[Jennicut]

8. Local off year elections do not make people want to go out and vote.

Many Dems lost on the town council in my little town in CT as well. Presidential elections, epsecially one that involved voting for a Dem after 8 years of Rethug rule, brings tons of people out. I accept your apology but please realize that many of us here went out and voted yesterday. Only the most politically active will vote on off years. Teabagger types are angry. The rest of the population, not so much.

[uponit7771]

22. RIGHT!!! Also the OP isn't giving any nationwide emperical evidence

[AllentownJake]

23. I'm talking about a swing district in PA

That is usually the focus of lots of attention during the on year.

[windbreeze]

34. I have a friend on the other side of Pa...

who wasn't going to take the time to vote yesterday, after all, it's NOT that important...I don't know whether she did or not...because what I told her, was I don't care what else you do today, or IF you do anything else...you need to go out and VOTE...We do it every time...(and the Rep's know it)...we work like crazy, we take control, then we sit back and rest on our laurels...and we let our guard down...I keep wondering IF we will ever learn?...wb

disclaimer: jmo...and most likely doesn't count for much...I also wonder if this time, a lot of people had totally unreal expectations of what Obama could/would accomplish in a few months time...

[Jennicut]

24. Local elections don't mean much when related to a national scale.

Just like we picked up the NJ and VA governorships under Bush. It does not mean all that much.

[vaberella]

36. In New York we don't even know when we have one and who are the candidates.

It's seriously not promoted or talked about. So I'd have to say that is the reason.

[geek tragedy]

30. Off-year elections bring out the pissed more than the inspired.

Which is a bad thing for incumbents. Even Mike Bloomberg--who had a double-digit lead in the polls and outspent his lame opponent 15-1 barely escaped.

[ClarkUSA]

31. Exactly. nt

[onenote]

33. If you are talking about Lehigh County, it seems like your concerns may be overstated

Four years ago, Lehigh County elected five county commissioners: three repubs and two Democrats. After last night, the makeup of the County Commissioners is the same: three repubs and two Democrats. The three incumbents that ran (two repubs and one Democrat) were re-elected. In the other two districts a Democrat was replaced with a Democrat and a repub was replaced with a repub.

In fact, one could make the case that the glass is half full, not half empty. While two of the repubs that were elected this year got over 60 percent of the vote, four years ago repubs won those two seats without any Democratic opposition at all. In the two races that Democrats won, the margin this year was not that much different than four years ago: in one case it was the same (57-43) and in the other it was slightly smaller (56-44 v. 59-41 four years ago).

And while you are correct that it was rather shocking that a relative unknown could nearly topple the incumbent Democratic County Executive, it is worth remembering that the incumbent was the first Democrat elected County Executive in Lehigh and his victory four years ago was fueled in large part by anger at the then repub incumbent for a major tax increase. The repub this year got about the same number of votes as the losing repub got in 2005, but the margin was much narrower because the Democrat got around 12,000 fewer votes. The likely explanation is that a lot of folks fueled by anger at the incumbent four years ago simply stayed home this time.

[cornermouse]

37. People don't have jobs.

They're insecure, worried about the future (lack of jobs, possible end of unemployment for those who have lost their jobs, loss of a roof over their heads and all the inter-household stress that comes from that), and probably quite a few of them are depressed. And didn't I see that 50% of the children are either living in poverty or on foodstamps or something?

Heck, I have a job and I'm depressed too. I don't think there's a lot of margin for failure and patience is pretty much nonexistent at this point.