Two very different messages last night

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1) Some people who voted for Obama are disappointed. They still like Obama but they are not enthused. Independents are unimpressed.

2) The Palinista forces that have taken full control of the national Republican Party cannot win elections outside militia-held territory.

Democratic and Republican spinners will wrangle over which message is real but they are both real.

They are trends in opposition and eventually something's gotta give. We need to get people feeling good about Democrats because feeling bad about Republicans is not dependable.

In 1976 Ronald Reagan challenged Gerry Ford from the nut-right. Everyone had a good laugh... he was like Ron Paul and Sarah Palin rolled into one. Jimmy Carter won the general election by post-Watergate default, surviving a late run by Ford. Then everyone turned on Carter, the Democrats became national figures of fun and the colorful crazy man who had been taken little more seriously than Sarah Palin won easily in 1980.

We just won two election cycles (2006-2008) because the opposition represented the worst President in American history. Now the low-hanging fruit is all picked.

I would suggest that banking on the absurdity of the Republicans to keep Democrats viable is a bad idea. That dynamic works until it doesn't. The Republicans will get less absurd or their absurdity will become mainstream.

Elucidate some principles and stick to them through thick and thin and pass bills that benefit millions of people immediately, not in 2013. Jobs, jobs, jobs.

[emulatorloo]

1. Excellent post. Probably worth noting that lots of "independents" are former Republicans

since only about 20% of the population self identifies as Republican.

So these conservative "independents" are going to be a hard group for any Democrat to impress.

That being said, I agree with your conclusions.

[CTyankee]

23. I know so many damn "independents" who are really repubs that it's not funny.

Whenever I hear someone call themselves an indie I put them in a box marked "republican" and ignore whatever else they have to say...

[Rosa Luxemburg]

2. A lot of younger people didn't bother with governors races

from what I heard it was an older set at the polls

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

3. True, but that is also true when Dems win those races

[emulatorloo]

5. What do you make of Obama approval numbers in those states? NJ 57% / VA 52%

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x8732469

57% is apparently the same as the vote was for him in NJ 2008.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

11. That he is personally popular

People like Barack Obama. (And dislike national Republicans.) That does not mean they have stopped viewing Democrats as weak tax-addicts who cannot get things done.

It means that Obama's popularity doesn't translate into support for the Party unless he is on the ballot. People are more excited about Obama than they are about Obama's program or his party.

So Democrats need to be more popular institutionally as a national Party rather than as just anti-Bush or riding Obama's coat-tails.

[ClarkUSA]

13. "Dem weakness" wasn't evident in Dems' huge victory in NY-23 and the CA House seat pick-up.

Also, Charlotte, NC chose a Democratic mayor for the first time.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

18. This mayor obviously wasn't importat as RW Bloomberg!

[geek tragedy]

20. They also need to run better candidates.

Creigh Deeds did everything he could to motivate the base to stay home. Corzine should have stayed in the Senate.

[Jennicut]

4. Or maybe the Dem base stays home when given a choice between a blue dog

and a Rethug? I would have voted for Deeds but he was one sucky choice.
Same in NJ.

[emulatorloo]

6. Both Deeds and Corzine seemed like really bad candidates to me.

[uponit7771]

9. Corzines ties to GS would even turn off a lot of staunch dems, he had hard tow there. Deeds, I dont

...know WTF he was thinking saying he would opt out of the public option if he were governer

[uponit7771]

8. WTF was the dem leadership thinking about with Deeds?!?!!?

[ClarkUSA]

10. Um, he won a hard-fought primary fair and square. What was "the dem leadership" to do?

[Jennicut]

14. He did win fairly. We could have had Terry McLoser instead.

But Moran seemed decent enough.

[ClarkUSA]

15. I agree with you. Moran would have beaten McDonnell like a drum in NoVA.

His brother would have I'll bet he'll run again in four years. Hopefully, the entire party will be behind him this time.
One of the big reasons McDonnell won handily is because he didn't go through a bruising primary which distracted
his base, although the other big reason is Deeds was the worst candidate in memory who ran a tone-deaf campaign
which ignored all advice from Team Obama until the last two weeks.

[AspenRose]

21. Either Moran (Brian or Jim) would have kicked his ass.

That's one tough political family

[ClarkUSA]

27. I agree with you, too. nt

[uponit7771]

7. K&R, this is a GOOD WARNING and it seems dem leadership at local levels is laxed

[ClarkUSA]

12. I disagree with #1. Exit polls prove Obama was a non factor for a big majority of NJ/VA voters.

Equal percentages of partisans on either side of the aisle cancelled each other out in both states while swing voters
(aka. independents, many of whom are disaffected Republicans) went against the incumbent/incumbent party as usual.

Expecting the same turnout as the GE in midterm elections goes against reason; historic trends favor the losing party
in the GE in NJ/VA governor's races.

[emulatorloo]

16. And this wasn't even a midterm election. So it stands to reason turn-out was poor.

[ClarkUSA]

17. Yup.

Frankly, I'm surprised Corzine got within 4% given he was down by 20 points barely two months ago.

[geek tragedy]

19. The party out of power usually has its base more agitated

than the party in power during off year elections. Toss in the DEEP unpopularity of Corzine and the utter lameness of Creigh Deeds . . .

[damonm]

22. Big Dawg said it best...

...in a recent interview with Esquire. He essentially said to ignore the republicans, and DELIVER ON OUR PROMISES. That in itself will keep the victories coming.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

26. Yup. Ignore 'em.

[wiggs]

24. Good points. Over the last nine years the goprs have gotten a lot of mileage out

of being willing to get in the gutter more quickly, stoop lower, search harder for the lowest common denominator, embrace hate and fear, ramp up polarization, etc. There is a difference between the parties on this count and among the tea baggers it works. I imagine it works with other low information independents as well, unfortunately. If a lie, especially an ugly lie, is repeated often, it becomes an issue and is discussed and then accepted by a few of the susceptible. Bad democracy.

I don't suggest we do the same but progressives and the media better continue the Maddow and Grayson approach to exposing the lies and low tactics.

[Cha]

25. That's the message you got out of it..that doesn't mean

it's a fact.

Actually President Obama wasn't a factor in the Gov races so I don't know why you're going for the negative angle regarding President Obama but it's just not true.