Perspective on why the NJ and VA Governor races had nothing to do with Obama (updated)

[ProSense]

The Legislative Results

by Matt Compton, November 4, 2009 03:06 PM EST

Last night's legislative elections offered few surprises. As the polls closed, Republicans and Democrats each held a majority they needed to protect, and today, the status quo remains the same.

In Virginia, buoyed by a set of strong statewide candidates and a national climate that put history on their side, Republicans last night added to their margins in the House of Delegates.

But the GOP believed that this election might help them wipe out all the Democratic gains of the past six years, and it did not.

Democrats in the state were able to knock off two vulnerable Republicans, electing Luke Torian and Robin Abbott to the caucus. Their victories helped to offset losses in other parts of the state.

In a night when state Democrats were looking for good news, the New Jersey Assembly offered a sharp counterpoint to elections elsewhere.

Headed into Tuesday, Democrats held a solid majority, but Republicans had been talking about mounting a serious effort to cut into that margin, if not win the eight seats they would need to tie the chamber.

The Democratic Assembly Caucus met that challenge head-on. In the weeks before Election Day, New Jersey Democrats built up formidable advantages in fundraising, candidate quality, and organization. That in turn allowed them to counter a bad set of national trends and a strong statewide campaign from GOP gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie.

Last night, the Democratic Caucus protected all of its incumbents, ultimately holding 47 of 48 seats. The only seat that now appears to have changed hands was left open by retirement in District 4.

The NJ Democratic Assembly Caucus did nearly everything right in this year's election, and the advantages they banked during the summer allowed them to offset the Republican climate in the state last night.

Across the country, Democrats still hold 60 legislative chambers and control 55 percent of the nation's partisan legislative seats. Our current position remains a solid one heading into the final election before the Census and the next round of Congressional and legislative redistricting.

(emphasis added)

Corzine was very unpopular and Deeds was so weak he thought that running as a Republican would help him.

Anyone trying to compare the dynamics of these two races are simply trying to spin a trend.


Updated to add:

The NY-23 seat abdicated by Republican John McHugh (who resigned to become Secretary of the Army) went to Democrat Bill Owens--the first Democrat to hold the seat in over a century. And the CA-10 seat abdicated by Democrat Ellen Tauscher (who resigned to become Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs) went to Democrat John Garamendi.

That creates some simple arithmetic. Yesterday, Democrats had 256 voting members in the House. By week's end, they'll have 258. Last week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi could afford to lose no more than 38 Democratic votes on a landmark health care reform bill. Next week, after Owens and Garamendi are sworn in, she can lose up to 40. For legislation this historic and far-reaching, she'll need every vote she can get--and both seem likely to support reform.

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[amandabeech]

1. Thanks for the post.

Holding those legislatures is incredibly important as we move toward post-2010 census redistricting.

Ultimately, holding those legislatures is at least as important as gaining 2 seats in the House.

[Cha]

2. Thanks..too bad Deeds thought

running as a repub would help him especially if he doesn't really think that way.