Josh Marshal lives in reality

[impik]

There are many events in life that, while more or less predictable in themselves (House passage of the health care bill), turn out to have an impact and significance that is only truly apparent after they occur. The passage of the House health care reform bill last night strikes me as one of them.

The precise contours of the post-conference legislation remains uncertain in a number of key respects, especially in regards to the public option. But having watched the events leading up to the House vote and the politicking in the senate, I have little doubt that a broadly similar bill will pass the senate, be reconciled with the House bill in a conference report and bill that will be signed by the president in relatively short order.

The reason these sorts of events happen so infrequently is that they are like colossal ships or vast armies, very difficult to build or assemble and get on their way but also extremely difficult to stop or turn once they are under way.

As Bill Kristol noted in his famous 1993 GOP strategy memo on the Clinton health care reform initiative, the key danger Republicans face from health care reform is precisely that the public will like it. And I suspect that the more forward thinking and perspicacious of his partisan colleagues today see it the same way.

If a health care reform bill passes, it's greatest point of vulnerability will be in the 2010 election. That's not only because of the on-going fall-out of the 2008 financial crisis, which sets the Democrats up for a tough midterm election. It's also because a lot of the key reforms in the legislation don't kick in for a few years. But even if you assume the worst possible outcome for the Democrats in 2010, loss of both houses of Congress, Republican majorities still wouldn't be able to overturn the law because President Obama would veto their repeal.

Last night's vote makes me think this will happen and it will be a genuinely historic development.

Damn straight.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/11/there_are_many_events_in.php#more?ref=fpblg

[Clio the Leo]

1. It was great to be alive last night, wasn't it? NT

[vaberella]

9. Yes. It was. n/t

[Cha]

2. I always have thought he does..

I've been reading him for 7 years now.

This is an historic victory..even though so many tried to block it.

[Cirque du So-What]

3. Kick for Josh Marshall

I've read his blog(s) for years now, and will continue to support his efforts to get out the truth.

[emulatorloo]

4. Good piece, thanks for the link n/t

[DrToast]

5. Is he saying he thinks we'll lose both the House and the Senate?

I think it would be pretty tough to lose the Senate.

[autorank]

6. Josh Marshall is running from reality

This bill was sold as having a real "public option." It does not.

It was sold as a bill for the people. It enshrines the 10-40% insurance company overhead by keeping
them in business. It's an insurance bailout provision.

By enshrining insurance companies and their overhead for doing nothing, a large chunk of savings
that could have paid for this will go right to insurance company bottom lines.

The people are not stupid. The con about the public option and the giveaway to insurance companies
plus the wasted money that could be used for health care -- all of this will be known over the next
couple of months.

That won't help at all, not one bit, in the 2010 elections.

Combine this with no foreclosure relief, no cap on usurious credit card rates, and the generosity
shown to Wall Street crooks and you have a ... formula for disaster.

It doesn't take a PhD in the obvious to figure this out.

[druidity33]

8. yeah but it's something...

and we "won"...

:eyes:

[quiet.american]

7. Glad to see some common sense about this. nt

[phantom power]

10. The problem I have with this line of reasoning is...

that GOP, and more importantly the insurance industry, are going to be working at least as hard to undermine it and dismantle it. Is there anything about the structures created by this bill that is resistant to dismantling, or weakening?