Anyone who thinks that there is an easy answer to this is fooling themselves.
Statements on DU that this is a replay of Vietnam are silly, the Taliban is no Ho Chi Minh and this is not a national liberation movement.
There are elements of the Taliban that are as crazy as the Khmer Rouge, in fact I would argue that prior to the Khmer Rouge arriving in power they were much more reasonable than the Taliban is today.
While this is not a national liberation movement, and all national liberation movements are not good and not all insurgencies are victorious.
Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand all successfully defeated insurgencies and all defeated them in different ways. Malaysia had a tenacious pursuit policy that had government forces remain on the trail of an insurgent party even if that meant a 60 day pursuit in the jungle. Thais negotiated an end to their insurgency with reconciliation. Indonesia defeated communist insurgents with supperior intelligence product and severe military crackdowns.
I am not an expert on Afghanistan and it is more complicated than any of the other countries in the region. Having said that I have had some experience working with Afghan refugees and resettling about 15,000 of them in 1980-1983.
So while I don't claim any special expertise on Afghanistan (my work involved very little actual face to face interaction with Afghan refugees) I would like to categorically state that recent statements made by various posters at DU that "all areas in Afghanistan are basically still in the stone ages" and that even Kabul is "in the 16th century" are among the stupidest I have read at DU, and the racism that contributes to these kind of views is appalling.
For the record. Afghanistan was a leader in progressive values in the Islamic world
Gender reform was central to the contentious issues which brought about the fall of King Amanullah in 1929. In 1959, the male-oriented government of Prime Minister Daud Khan supported the voluntary removal of the veil and the end of seclusion for women. The 1964 Constitution automatically enfranchised women and guaranteed them the right to education and freedom to work.<1>
For thirty years after 1959 growing numbers of women, most from urban backgrounds, functioned in the public arena with poise and dignity, with no loss of honor to themselves or to their families, and with much credit to the nation. Nevertheless, family pressures, traditional attitudes and religious opposition continued to impose constraints which limited the degree to which women could find self-expression and control their lives.<1>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women_in_Afghanistan While some extremely remote areas remained cut off from civilization (something that could be shared with almost every large geographical country in the world), Afghanistan has had progressive and liberal leadership.
The 1964 constitution gave women in Afghanistan more equality than any other country in the region, and more than currently exist in our allies, like Saudia Arabia.
The Taliban are not the natural inheritors of a long history of oppression, Afghanistan was more developed and more progressive than any other country in the region, or the wider middle east.
The Taliban and the current situation is the result of cold war machinations that go back to 1973 and accelerated with the Soviet Union's invasion and the American franchise of the resistance.
We have a strong interest in defeating the Taliban insurgency on 4 key points
1) It would provide a benefit to Jihadist movements that continue to attack the United States and the civilized world. Even if the latest speculation is correct that the return of the Taliban to Afghanistan would not mean that Al Queda would be able to restore training and logistic operations there because our predators own the sky and they would be better to keep underground in Pakistan it completely misses the point. A Taliban run Afghanistan's main contribution would be in establishing a narco state and supplying Russia (currently the worlds largest consumer of heroin) with vast amounts of Heroin. Afghanistan would be able to sharply increase its financial contribution to Al Queda just as we are becoming more effective (with increased Pakistan assistance) in cutting off funds to Al Queda.
2) A Taliban run Afghanistan would significantly undermine stability between India and Pakistan. Pakistans support of the Taliban is not, as is commonly believed, based on any religious sympathy. It is seen as a way to distract and neutralize Indian military superiority. In the same way that the Jihadists made destabilizing relationships in Iraq between the Sunni and the Shia, the real goal is to try and incite hostility between Pakistan and India and ignite a full blown war.
3) The Taliban represents the real enslavement of real women. There are sections of the Taliban that are as crazy as the Khmer Rouge were before they assumed power. Part of the worry that a reconstituted Taliban Afghanistan is which Taliban. If the more extreme elements were successful, elements that some analysts now say are populated by significant numbers of foreign jihadists, then the amount of misery that could result is incalcuable, especially to the women and girls of Afghanistan.
4) We have allies in Afghanistan and Europe that will simply not find us a credible partner when it comes to building a coalition.
So while I have had some direct experience and have some study I have to answer that "I don't know".
I do know one thing and that is that all of the successful operations that have defeated insurgencies in South East Asia combined two key factors:
1) They have combined any military effort with strong efforts to increase the quality of life for people in the villages and
2) Even if they used strong military measures they also had real amnesty and reconciliation plans to rehabilitate their foes.
So the answer in Afghanistan that can succeed is an 'Afghanistan' solution. It must have significant plans that improve the daily life of the common Afghani and it must include amnesty and reconciliation.
By definition it has to be implemented by Afghani so that the US can only provide a short term buffer while Afghans build up their military and civilian leadership and institutions.
I certainly find the glib assessments of people who have absolute knowledge on the Afghan situation remarkable. I wonder if they have tapped into a secret source of some of that Afghan Sufi wisdom. For those that are unfamiliar with Afghan Sufism I leave you with the words of Haji Dost Muhammad Qandhari the great Afghan Sufi master in the Naqshbandi tradition:
"You hear my words. Hear, too, that there are words other than mine. These are not meant for hearing with the physical ear. Because you see only me, you think there is no Sufism apart from me. You are here to learn, not to collect historical information."
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