Poll: Snowe Could Lose 2012 GOP Primary In Landslide To Conservative Challenger

[jefferson_dem]

Poll: Snowe Could Lose 2012 GOP Primary In Landslide To Conservative Challenger
Eric Kleefeld | November 10, 2009, 11:07AM

A new survey of Maine from Public Policy Polling (D) has some dire news for Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), with the moderate Republican potentially losing her 2012 Republican primary against a generic conservative challenger -- and by a landslide, no less.

The numbers: Conservative challenger 59%, Snowe 31%, with a ±4.8% margin of error. It is of course a long way from the idea of a generic conservative challenger to having an actual candidate, but the potential for success by just such an insurgent is certainly there.

Snowe's overall approval is 51%, to 36% disapproval. Democrats approve of her by 60%-29%, Republicans disapprove by 40%-46%, and independents approve by 51%-33%.

The pollster's analysis notes the importance of her vote for a health care bill in the Senate Finance Committee: "Snowe's numbers are steady with independents but down with both Democrats and Republicans compared to three weeks ago, an indication of the perilous political position she finds herself in. Republicans are mad at her for supporting any Democratic bill, while Democrats still are not completely happy with her because of her hesitance to support a public option."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/11/poll-snowe-could-lose-2012-gop-primary-in-landslide-to-conservative-challenger.php?ref=fpa

[Deep13]

1. Good for her. nt

[cali]

2. excellent. delighted to hear it.

[Cant trust em]

3. This is not good news for HCR. nt

[Bleacher Creature]

10. Not so sure.

It could cut both ways. On one hand, she could interpret this as a reason to move to the right and weaken HCR even further. That said, she's probably also smart enough to realize that there's no possible way for her to move far enough to appease the teabag lunatics. If that's the case, may have the opposite reaction so that she could keep open the option of switching parties, or at least winning the general based on the support of Democrats (assuming that she could get through a primary, which is doubtful).

[WonderGrunion]

28. Yes it is. A strong conservative will never win here in Maine

A primaried Snowe means a Democratic pick up of a senate seat.

[hobbit709]

4. they should all have the fear of god put in them.

Maybe some of them will do the right thing instead of the political points posturing.

[Jennicut]

5. You will never win over rabid conservatives by giving into them. Vote the right way,

become an independent, and get Dem and indies to support you. Or, not. Dems could pick up this seat if a crazy RWer runs there.

[IndianaGreen]

6. Good riddance!

She was never our friend.

[Mz Pip]

7. If that's really the case

then perhaps she should stand up for what's right and vote for HCR since it may not matter one way or another in her bid for re-election.

Or maybe she can switch parties...

[Cant trust em]

8. Any bets that she runs as an independent in 2010? nt

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

12. I would if I were her.

She's already pretty frustrated with the party, and if they're going to try to primary her out for someone more conservative, there's no good reason why I wouldn't do it. It certainly worked for Lieberman. Heck, if this happens enough (and it seems like both parties are looking to do the same thing - primary out "impure souls"), I wouldn't be surprised to see a whole new, viable moderate 3rd party start to emerge.

[Cant trust em]

16. I would love to see the eventual destruction of the two party system.

I haven't thought this out completely, but I feel really limited in this us vs. them dynamic that we have.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

17. Careful what you wish for.

I share your frustrations quite a bit, but I'm also unconvinced that merely adding a moderate third party would be a better solution (which is the only scenario I can see actually playing out). Basically, every piece of legislation that gets produced would be even more moderate than it is now, as this party would be permanently structured as the power broker - a similar concept to what we have in swing states for Presidential elections. I don't think that's the solution either of us would want from tearing down the two-party system, but that's exactly what we'd have.

I think we need a system where we have five or six viable parties (which is actually what was envisioned by the founding fathers - this is evidence that they really didn't have all the answers), but I don't see that as a reality given the current structure.

[Cant trust em]

21. Yes. There are definitely a lot of moving parts here.

But I think that James Madison's fear of factionalism is coming to pass.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

25. I completely agree

And it's only going to get worse with the Internet. If you want to, you can completely surround yourself with only the point of view you want to hear, either liberal or conservative, and never hear anything else. The ability to compromise is practically void and the people that don't really fit into either bucket completely are becoming further and further distanced from our political system, checking out and not bothering to do anything to figure out the details of the issues. It's rather ironic that the communications age has made it more difficult to communicate with each other in a meaningful way by virtue of the fact that they've made it easier to communicate.

[NJGeek]

23. will never happen with out instant runoff voting with a single transferrable vote...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

26. While that's not the only feasible method, it's certainly a good one.

And I agree - we do desperately need something along those lines to make it happen. I think the perfect place to pilot it would be New York or Minnesota, which already have multiple parties, even if they usually are largely meaningless. We'd also need some campaign finance reform, however.

[GreenPartyVoter]

9. I've heard rumors that she's going to retire. And the real question here for me is whether

a more conservative Repub could win the seat. I would be very unhappy about that.

[rocktivity]

11. Not to mention a Democratic one, I hope!

rocktivity

[frazzled]

13. She will still win in Maine if she runs as an Independent

Just as Lieberman was sure to win in Connecticut when he lost the primary to Lamont. (He still had support--at that time--from independents and some Republicans).

So my advice to Olympia is this:

(1) Don't think that if you vote against HCR that you will gain something from the conservative base of your party. They already hate you, and your record is too long. You are going to lose this primary.

(2) Now is as good a time as any to quit the Republican Party and become an "Independent." And if you want to win with Independents and Democrats in Maine, vote for HCR (thereby canceling out the Lieberman factor).

I hope she's reading this.

[ClarkUSA]

15. Send her an email with Portland's zip code. nt

[global1]

14. I Say The Dems Should Court Her To Change Parties - She Could Cancel Out Lieberman.....nt

[Proud Liberal Dem]

18. Second that

AS LONG as she doesn't the hold the bill hostage to dropping the PO like Lieberman is doing. My understanding was that she had given up working with us unless the PO is drop kicked out of the HCR bill. Of course, that could just be her "showboating" for her *base* and party leaders but if she's willing to at least promise not to support a filibuster, I'd be willing to take her as a Dem. Maybe Obama, Reid, and Specter could chat with her about it.

[IndianaGreen]

19. She opposes public option. FRAK her ass!

Too many Liebermans already!

[TheKentuckian]

20. The writing is on the wall. The days of the moderate or even sane Republican are over

The base just don't play that. Snowe will probably have to either hang it up or bail out of the Confederacy. She might even have to go full Arlen and move straight to the middle of the caucus if she jumps the fence.

[Renew Deal]

22. Maybe she'll switch parties.

Democrats would gladly accept her. She got 70% of the vote last time.

[katkat]

24. we don't need another blue dog n/t

[DFW]

27. Yes, she COULD, but.....they just saw what happened in NY-23

Maine could be a repeat performance. Who was the last significant Democrat to represent Maine in the Senate, Ed Muskie?
That was decades ago. If some progressive should show up on the Maine political scene at the same time that the Teabeck-ers
are feeding Snowe in pieces to the lobsters off of Bar Harbor, it's fine with me. Maine is a conservative place, but the
people there have a very independent streak to them, and don't take kindly to being told what to think, especially by nut
case outsiders like Beck and Palin.

[Arkana]

29. Fantastic.

Her wingnut challenger will get thwomped in the general and we'll gain another seat. Thanks, teabaggers!