Gay Marriage and Abortion Rights; Opposing Trends.

[Tom Rinaldo]

In 1997 Gallup polled that 27% of the American public supported gay marriages. After peaking at 46% in 2007, that percentage dipped to 40% in 2008 and stayed at that level in Gallup's May 2009 poll. Although support for Gay Marriage slipped somewhat from its all time 2007 high, it remains 13% higher now than it was in 1997, with acceptance of Gay Marriage polling strongest in the 18-29 age bracket, with 59% of that age group in favor of it. For those who support Gay Marriage, the long term trend line is clearly positive.

CQ Politics posts a graph of changing polling results on Gay Marriage between 1997 and 2009 here:
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2009/05/support-for-legalizing-gay-mar.html


Gallup has also been polling the relative strengths of the "Pro-Choice" and "Pro-Life" positions in regards to abortion since 1995, with "Pro-Choice" sentiments establishing a high water polling mark of 56% in that year. Gallup's most recent poll in July 2009 shows Americans almost evenly divided in their current attitudes, with 47% identified as "Pro-Life" and 46% identified as "Pro-Choice". A graph of Gallup polls on this question can be found at:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/122033/U.S.-Abortion-Attitudes-Closely-Divided.aspx


Like many polling outfits, the validity of Gallup polling has been called into question on more than one occasion. Personally I would not stand by their specific numbers any more than I would by a leaking nuclear reactor. But I don't think there is much real argument about the overall long term polling trend line regarding abortion rights. Support for a pro-choice position was clearly stronger in the past, while support for Gay Marriage overall has been increasing.

Why is that? The answers to that question will ultimately determine the future abortion rights of women in America. The Stupak amendment is only the latest skirmish in that ongoing battle, with pro-choice advocates increasingly being forced into a defensive position.

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. I'n not sure why this political comparison is seldom discussed.

I think perhaps it is uncomfortable for varied reasons for many of us to dwell on. Obviously the two issues are seperate and different, but both causes have traditionally received most of their support from liberal and progressive Democrats.

More telling though are the forces that head opposition to both Gay Marriage and legal Abortions. By and large it's the same folks at the forefront fighting both. These two causes are the crown jewels of so called family value wedge issues politically used constantly by the Right in America.

So why so different trends? Is support for Gay Marriage just finally catching up with the support found for Abortions within the same predominantly liberal sub set of Americans (if so the trends should soon become similar) or is there something else also going on? Are there significantly different levels of passion pushing or opposing both causes? Is there a difference in strategy or tactics being employed by respective advocates that explains these different trends? Or is it simply Americans becoming more comfortable with gay relationships and less comfortable with abortions?

[ej510]

2. Abortion will be illegal in 20-30 years and gay marriage will be legal

nation wide in 10.

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. Barring some major change in social dynamics

Right now I agree. Of course IF Abortion became illegal THAT would change the social dynamic big time.