The 2012 Republican primary schedule is actually quite favorable for Caribou Barbie (Sarah Palin)

[Politics_Guy25]

I was just thinking about who the GOP nominee might be last night because I was bored and I gamed out the schedule and it's actually strikingly favorable to her. Why?:
1. First in the nation is Iowa-Iowa will be a very hotly contested battle between Huckabee and Palin but if Palin can win Iowa, she'll push Huckabee aside and instantly soar in the polls.
2. New Hampshire-The moderate state that it is will be irrelevant in 2012 with the foaming at the mouth hateful racist teabaggers dominating the GOP primary vote elsewhere in the nation. Romney wil probably win this one but the next states aren't favorable to him except for Michigan, which if the other candidates are smart they won't contest to make it irrelevant.
3. Next up-S.C. primary. Palin is hearted by the GOP base in the south. She should win this in a cakewalk especially after her victory in Iowa propels her to the top of the polls nationally.
4. Final primary before Super Tuesday is Florida-This is the one state that could stop her but if she can at least come very close here, she'll maintain her lead going into Super Tuesday.
5. Super Tuesday-a bit of a split but she gains enough momentum to become the inevitable nominee.

By April or May, her last challenger (Romney?) drops out and endorses her.

If the primary schedule in 2012 is drastically different than 2008, however, all bets are off sadly.

Then Sarah gets to thrash about Carrie Prejean style for 5 months on her way to an electoral thrashing at the hands of President Obama. 1984 anyone?

Honestly, the GOP has gone off the total deep end and is now a party of foaming at the mouth haters. Sarah's their girl. The primary schedule favors her. It's her baby! As far as Huckabee, the base will deem him too moderate. All she has to do is win Iowa and she's it.

[blue_onyx]

1. Palin will not be the nominee

no matter how favorable the schedule is for her. If the GOP wants a chance to win (which they do) they won't nominate her. I think most Republicans know she is a horrible candidate and will turn away from her. I think Jeb Bush will be the nominee.

"...the next states aren't favorable to him except for Michigan, which if the other candidates are smart they won't contest to make it irrelevant."

Michigan isn't that favorable for him. He claims that Michigan is his home state (as is Massachusetts, Utah, New Hampshire, and California) but he hasn't even lived here since he left after high school. If I were a GOP candidate, I would challenge Romney here and take away one state that his campaign will be counting on.

[DavidDvorkin]

2. Too good to be true

Huckabee might be even better.

[Perky]

3. I have noodele on precisel the same thing

I think if she gets a good team arounde her and fpllows their instructions. If she get the Right to Life Endorsement in IOWA and if she actually puts in the required time there.... She wins the state Hands down. Neither TPaw or Huckabee have a chance if she stays on message does debates and practices authentic Iowa retail politics.



She has no chance in New Hampshire...None. Romney and TPAW would duke it out...she will by pass and head for SC. If Huckabee loses the first two..... he does not have a chance ion SC and he is fone


She ccould very easily win SC and having won two out of the first three or both of the first two she competes in she becomes the odds on favorite because the money will dry up for everyone except the NH winner.

The winner take all system the GOP has could hurt in Florida. But with Huckabee gone and Super Tuesday having a big group of Southern States..... I think she comes out of Super Tuesday as "inevitable".

Vyt again the Key is Iowa. If ahe runa the campaigns Iowa Republicans expect. She can cruise.

[Thrill]

4. If she runs, she'll win the primary because the whack jobs are crazy about her

. Its the General Election where she has no chance.

[zulchzulu]

5. Palin would get pulverized in Iowa and limp to New Hampshire to get her ass kicked

She's a quitter who could have been a governor finishing her term who will be running against at least three former governors who finished their term. If you think they are going to "let that go", you don't know Republican politics. She'll get less that 5% in Iowa and perhaps the same in New Hampshire. Romney will vomit her political carcass out of his mouth after they head into South Carolina.

That's if she EVEN runs, which she won't. She'll take the money given to her and smile back and wink before running off. The Republican Machine knows she's political poison. Look at how a couple Republican governors who just ran specifically told her to stay the fuck away.

She's a goner in a year except for a couple events where she becomes even more ridiculous. She might get a gig at Faux NotNews or be a guest on one of their pathetic GOP cheerleading shows.

That's it.

[Robbins]

6. Palin

People need to remember she Is loved by the tea baggers and Birthers and Boss Limbaugh.She can win
the Republican nomination.Her toughest opponent will be Huckabee.They will battle it out among the
religious wack Jobs.Iowa will be battle between her and Huckabee.If she wins there she becomes the
official front runner and Huckabee Is finished.Romney will win NH.Romney will be supported by the more
sane Republicans.Romney will win Michigan as well.If Huckabee Is taken out by Iowa Palin can take
South Carolana.Now Florida might be a problem for her.Romney might have a chance to keep the race
going.Palin will beat romney In Most Southern states.Romney could do as Mccain did and win Republican
votes In states Obama will win In the fall.

Obama will never have a Reagan like landslide.My feeling Is best cause scenario he wins 55,56 percent
of the popular vote.Keeps all his states plus has chances at picking up Missouri,Arizona,Montana,and
another electoral vote In Nebraska.I could see Obama doing better In some southern states(not counting
those he won In 2008 Florida,Virginia,NC) but he will not win anymore.

If Palin doesn't run then you have a battle between Huckabee and Romney.I am not sure without her
which one would come out ahead.But I stand by my belief Palin,or Romney,or Huckabee will be facing
Obama In the fall of 2012.Pawlenty will not be a contender except as VP(I could see a PalinPawlenty
ticket)

[AlinPA]

7. Romney won't make it because he is not an Evangelical or Fundamentalist "Christian".

Limbaugh will have a lot to do with who gets it and if he supports Palin she is in.

[saltpoint]

8. I believe Sarah Palin, if she runs as a Republican, will be buzz-sawed

in Iowa.

I believe her fellow GOP aspirants will take her out in Iowa on a once-and-for-all basis, and I don't think we'll hear from her again except possibly as an "independent" secessionist far-right kook candidate heading the ticket of an unviable third party effort.