Clark numbers keep rising in New Hampshire -ARG- 1-9-04

[OKNancy]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

Clark up to 20%

[maddezmom]

1. wahoo up 2!

2004 New Hampshire Democratic Tracking

3-Day Results Jan 2-4 Jan 3-5 Jan 4-6 Jan 5-7 Jan 6-8

Braun 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Clark 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
Dean 39% 37% 36% 35% 35%
Edwards 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Gephardt 6% 6% 6% 6% 5%
Kerry 14% 14% 13% 12% 11%
Kucinich 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Lieberman 6% 7% 7% 8% 8%
Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 17% 16% 17% 16% 16%

Sample size 622 619 613 613 613

Democrats 453 445 437 436 436
Undeclared 169 174 176 177 177
Undeclared (%) 27% 28% 29% 29% 29%
Margin of error is ± 4 percentage points
Methodology

[Mattforclark]

2. Vewy vewy

nice. Vewy vewy nice.

[CMT]

3. interesting

men are closely divided between Dean and Clark 30-28, while women favor Dean 40-13. Looks like most of Clark's gains though have been from Kerry--who continues to weaken. If he continues to fall he might come in fourth behind--Joe Lieberman who is up to 8% compared to 11% for Kerry.

[Jerseycoa]

10. Look again

"Looks like most of Clark's gains though have been from Kerry"


Jan 2-4 Jan 3-5 Jan 4-6 Jan 5-7 Jan 6-8

Braun 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% flat
Clark 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% +8
Dean 39% 37% 36% 35% 35% -4
Edwards 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% flat
Gephardt 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% -1
Kerry 14% 14% 13% 12% 11% -4
Kucinich 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% flat
Lieberman 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% +2
Sharpton 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% flat
Other 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 17% 16% 17% 16% 16%

[CMT]

30. you have to go back to the beginning of the polling

Where Dean was at 37% for several days, Clark was at 12% and Kerry began his long slide from 19%. Now Dean is at 35% after peaking one day at 39%. Kerry has gone from 19% to 11% over the entire coarse of the polling. Overall, I still think that most of Clark's gains have been at Kerry's expense. Dean is relatively stable and well within the moe.

[mouse7]

13. Not surprising to me

Kerry and Lieberman have been very close in the tone their campaigns have taken. While there are serious seperations on issues, both have been far more prone to attack other candidates than discuss their stands on issues. The message voters are actually getting from these campaigns has been very similar. You have to research the issues yourself to know how different they are.

[returnable]

4. Celebratory kick

:hi:

[PoofTheNinjaMog]

5. but can clark beat dean? or bush? i dont think either

[Dookus]

12. well...

even three days ago I would've said it was impossible. I posted repeatedly a week ago that Dean would win NH, and he'd win it big. Now I think Clark may pull a very close second, which would be awesome for his campaign.

the big unknown still is Iowa. If Gephardt does better than expected in IA, he'll get a big bump in NH.

But if things keep going this way and Gephardt simply shows in Iowa, Clark is going to be in a very close race with Dean in NH.

[Jerseycoa]

19. Do they track in Iowa like this?

I'd like to watch that one.

Dean's margin of victory in NH now looks like it will be smaller than expected.

[CMT]

35. you forget that if Dean wins Iowa

he will get a bump in NH. For instance, in '88 Gep was at 3% in NH polls, and then he won Iowa and came in second in NH with 22%. A Dean win in Iowa would also give Dean a bump--maybe not as large as Gep (because Gep was so far behind) but probably 5 or 6 points.

[Kahuna]

39. But Dean is ALREADY expected to win NH, his neighbor..

state. So, what's the diff?

[democratreformed]

6. Woo Hoo!

:bounce:

[Dookus]

7. wow....

Kerry's tanking, Clark is rising,and Dean is easing down.

Needless to say, I'm very happy about this. NancyOK beat me to this - I kept hitting refresh to get the latest numbers. She got 'em first.

I really think we're seeing something very important here.

[OKNancy]

14. I remember yesterday that they came out at about 9:35 CST

so I sat there and refreshed for a few minutes too....with butterflies. Dare I dream? This is from a campaign that had 4% just a month ago, and the teevee boobs were all but writing him off.

[Clark4Prez]

8. That's great news

The Big Mo has come to visit the General.

:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:
:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:
:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:
:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:
:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:
:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

[Bread and Circus]

9. So exciting, does anyone know if his American Son tapes have been mailed..

to potential voters in New Hampshire?

I know he was planning on sending 50,000 tapes to NH voters.

The gap is 15% right now.

Please keep it up!

Thanks New Hampshire.

[Killarney]

16. That's this weekend, I believe n/t

[Bread and Circus]

I think that is going to make a big difference.

[Mattforclark]

11. UMM - voting rights???

WTF?

"Over the past 2 days of calling, a number of older respondents registered as undeclared voters have reported that they have received telephone calls from a campaign informing them that they will not be allowed to vote in the Democratic primary because they missed the deadline to switch parties. A respondent discovered, however, that when she told the caller that she was thinking about voting for Howard Dean, the caller told her that she would be eligible to vote."

[Dookus]

17. hmm....

I won't put too much faith in that anecdote yet. I tend to think that NH primary voters are pretty savvy.

[Mattforclark]

18. That's so not the point

That has to be against the law.

[maddezmom]

20. hmmm

something going on there, but I'll reserve judgment for now.

edit: to clarify statement

[democratreformed]

42. Yeah, it sounds really bad

but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.

[maddezmom]

49. me, too

sounds Rovian to me. :(

[Jerseycoa]

22. Where's this one coming from now?

Is there a link?

[maddezmom]

24. it's at the bottom of the survey page

[Jerseycoa]

29. You know

I hate to go to sleep anymore. Every day brings more bullshit.

[Mattforclark]

27. The analysis of the poll

just click on the ARG link.

[Barbara917]

28. From the poll

It's the poll analysis for today's ARG NH poll

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[Killarney]

26. That is very shady

I wonder if the ARG reported that to the press yet. That must be looked into!

[DancingBear]

32. Verify???

Mattforclark,

Where did you hear of this? Is there any corroboration, or is it 'he said, she said?. If you can provide more details, I'll try and check with some contacts in NH.

Until then, I must remain skeptical.

[Killarney]

38. It's at the bottom of the page that is linked in the OP.

[CMT]

37. sounds fishy to me

like someone is trying to hurt Dean.

[dajabr]

15. Undeclared 169 174 176 177 177

What does everyone make of this?

[Leilani]

21. There are more Independents

in N.Hampshire than Dems or Repukes.

They are always the wild card.

[SahaleArm]

33. Exactly and almost 90% of them voted for McCain in 2000 n/t

[Dookus]

48. not so much....

NH voters are notoriously fickle. If their unknowns are high, it's nothing more than standard operating procedure.


However, I will venture to guess that the unknowns are less likely to go with the frontrunner. It seems they already know Dean and are waiting to see something else.

If we look at the last week of polling, it seems Clark is the recipient of their attention.

But I'll say again - we really won't know much until the Iowa caucuses.

[Padraig18]

23. Wow! Only Dean and Clark make the 15% cut-off.

Bodes well for them, but not so well for anyone else. this could get very interesting....

[SahaleArm]

25. Who's scamming for votes?

Over the past 2 days of calling, a number of older respondents registered as undeclared voters have reported that they have received telephone calls from a campaign informing them that they will not be allowed to vote in the Democratic primary because they missed the deadline to switch parties. A respondent discovered, however, that when she told the caller that she was thinking about voting for Howard Dean, the caller told her that she would be eligible to vote.

:wtf:

[Mattforclark]

31. Frightening, but don't jump to conclusions

It could be Republicans too. I think it was supposed to be Republicans who conducted push polls for Dean and against Clark a few months back.

[DoveTurnedHawk]

44. I Suspect It's More Trippi Sliming

This is the guy who stole tickets from Cranston supporters who had traveled all the way from California by engineering a mass fraud upon Cranston's campaign, after all:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=85218

If he's capable of this, he's easily capable of mere phone fraud.

DTH

[in_cog_ni_to]

34. WooHoo!

Another day, another boost in the polls! WTG, Wes! :bounce:

[Rowdyboy]

36. Thanks much, Nance

Now the rest of my day can begin...I've been watching since around 7am...Are results released over the weekend?

[DancingBear]

40. These gains are HUGE

1-2 points per day is unbelieveable!! It will (hopefully) feed upon itself until the 27th.

I'm going to NH on the 24th - can't wait!!

[Kahuna]

41. Thanks for posting this, Nancy!

:yourock: :hi:

[OKNancy]

47. You are welcome

see my guy in the picture? He's not a "pink tutu" Dem.

[Snivi Yllom]

43. let the Dean-Clark war begin

I expect a week of mega nastiness between them.

[Dookus]

45. well...

I expect a lot of nastiness. But I don't expect two-way nastiness.

Clark has already shown he's going to take the high road in the primaries. I think he'll be more than willing to get down in the mud in the general. I get a sense that he really, viscerally hates Bush. He's gonna do something with that.

However, if Clark continues to climb, he's gonna take a lot of hits from the other Dems. And he won't take them lying down. I think Clark's shown a "shock and awe" approach to attacks.

As much as people think he's an inexperienced politician, I would wager that he can get into it with the best of them.

[Kahuna]

46. I think Clark will wait until the last couple of weeks...

before the voting to give the others the verbal beat-down they have been begging for.