Will Dean supporters caucus for Kerry in Iowa?

[goodhue]

I know its sounds peculiar but that is what this articles suggests. What do you think?

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/primaries/iowa/articles/2004/01/09/caucus_night_vote_swapping_could_tilt_iowa/

Caucus-night vote-swapping could tilt Iowa
By Anne E. Kornblut, Globe Staff, 1/9/2004

DES MOINES -- For the first time in decades, a quirk in the Iowa nominating contest on Jan. 19 -- vote-swapping on caucus night -- could determine the outcome of the Democratic presidential contest here, according to advisers for several campaigns who are mapping strategies to swing stray votes in the final hours.

With candidates required to win at least 15 percent of the voters in each precinct to survive, strategists assume a number of candidates will fall short -- freeing their caucus voters to support other campaigns.

* * * *

At headquarters for Howard Dean, advisers are working on an automated system that would let precinct captains dial in early tallies. Knowing how Dean is faring statewide would allow the campaign to advise its supporters to throw Dean votes in some precincts to another candidate.

* * * *

Dean voters, for instance, could be directed to shift to Senator John F. Kerry as part of a strategy to knock Richard A. Gephardt out of contention and create a more competitive race in New Hampshire.

[dajabr]

1. This same article came out about a week ago...

Except the spin that time was that Gephardt and Kerry were going to employ those tactics.

The Media will not spare the whip to get a good horse race...

[cavebat2000]

2. Well it might make sense

If the Dean campaign is worried about Gep, and they are doing very well in Iowa, they may try to hand a strong second place finish to Kerry to divert attention away from Gep. Sounds like a good strategy to me.

[dajabr]

5. Yep, that was the simillar take when it was percieved...

That the others were worried about Dean.

[Hep]

6. It might make sense if DELEGATES WEREN'T PROPORTIONAL

The higher a percentage you get, the more delegates you get to the convention. Why in the hell would anyone not want to get the highest percentage possible?

Does the Globe even mention that?

[goodhue]

8. yeah it doesn't really make much sense to me

In general I would think Dean wants to get as many supporters as possible to caucus for him. If there are precincts in which Dean voters can't achieve 15% viability then they would have to choose another candidate or try to go viable with undecided. Certainly it would be unwise to go to Gephardt but why is Kerry much better. Why build him up at all before NH. Wouldn't they be better off going to Edwards, Kucinich or even Clark. Pumping up Kerry just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

[LuminousX]

3. Everything I've read about the Iowa Caucus

and the one first hand description I got of it (admittedly back in 1992) was it is fairly chaotic. While cell phones are now widely used and something like this has to at least be attempted as part of the political game, in the end, I think it will be like herding cats.

I heard other campaigns were going to do similar things in an attempt to deny Dean a first place finish. If everyone is doing it, it increases the chance for errors and can really make the system wonky.

[Hep]

4. Every Day another one falls

to the siren song of the media. The very people who hold the most responsibility for the 2000 fiasco, and they're hypnotizing more and more D's with their sexy pillow talk.

Scandal!

Controversy!

Vote Swapping!

6 year old tapes!

And every day, another political lap dog jumps onto the couch and nuzzles the Globe, The Post, The Times, Peggy Noonan, Safire, Drudge, Fineman. Every day another soul is lost.

[dajabr]

7. Hep, that is a keeper and so true...

Don't waste your breath in this forum by giving your take it's own post. You'll get flamed by all the Kerry and Clark folks who were complaining about the Media shutting them out 2 weeks ago...

[Raya]

9. Plausible: Dean know of the big guns waiting to back Clark after NH

[Feanorcurufinwe]

10. Bizarre theory.

Would the Dean campaign rather have Kerry or Gephardt win Iowa?

It seems pretty obvious to me that if Kerry wins Iowa it spells big trouble for Dean in NH. If Gephardt wins it's much less of a threat.

This theory just makes no sense at all.

[sandnsea]

11. second place, not a win

Throwing Kerry into second place in order to knock Gep out completely. But that makes no sense either really. Kerry is the threat, always has been, Dean knows that.

This is starting to sound like Survivor!

[slinkerwink]

13. no, it spells trouble for Clark if Kerry comes in second

[goodhue]

12. kick for contrast n/t

[maddezmom]

14. yes indeed!