Do you consider Louisiana to be a "Swing State"?

[funkybutt]

I certainly do and we're working our asses off down here to try to turn our state blue. Polls have been grossly underestimated the Democratic turnout time and time again. Our Governor (Democrat) was elected just days after a poll came out showing her loosing by double digits. Also Louisiana has 682, 511 Republicans registered, compared to 1.6 million registered Democrats.

I think Get Out the Vote is going to be the most important thing.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. But Landrieu only won 52 to 48

If that's what an established native Dem does against a pro-life GOP empty suit challenger, I am not confident in Kerry's chances.
However, I notice that the state is 1/3 black, and half Catholic- so maybe something could be done?

[obnoxiousdrunk]

2. It all depends on

Orleans Parish. It was Orleans that gave Landrieu and Blanco their victories. Tha rest of the state is hopeless.

[funkybutt]

3. That's where I am

And we're working our asses off. I know people who are spending 12-14 hours a day registering voters. I work full time and after work, I go to various locations to encourage people to register. I expect Orleans parish to put up some big numbers on this one.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

8. You' ll need to come up with 150k new votes

Bush 927,871(52.6%)
Gore 792,344 (44.9%)
Nader 20,473 (1.2%)
Others 24,968 (1.4%)

http://presidentelect.org/e2000.html

[funkybutt]

9. well do this

put 90% of the Nader votes in Kerry's column. Increase the amount of voters 10% with 8% of THOSE going to Kerry. Put 95% of the "other" votes in Kerry's column. That should do it :D

[NewYorkerfromMass]

17. If we could get every Catholic to vote Kerry it'd be a lock.

I wish I could think of a way.....

[CityDem]

4. No

It seems to be tracking red.

[GumboYaYa]

6. Based on what...

Clinton won LA in '92 and '96. Bush won in 2000. Landrieu won the Senate in 2002 even with a massive effort by the GOP to take that seat. In the same election Maryland and Minnesota (2 so-called Democratic states elected Repoublicans to the US Senate). In 2003 Blanco beat Jindal in a hard fought race where she was trailing in all the polls but the one that counted on election day. Please explain to me how that is "tracking red." A solid GOTV effort in LA will turn it blue. That is what history tells us at least.

Good luck Funkybutt. I'm with you guys in spirit.

[democratreformed]

5. Thanks for the insight. And THANKS for your hard work.

From your Arky neighbor, we love ya'll.

[CitySky]

7. Keep it up, Funky

Your Senate race is really important too -- if the Dems split and 'Pub Vitter gets a majority, that would stink. Which Dem are you supporting?

My boss made me bring a check to a Vitter event :cry: on his behalf. At least it gave me a chance to spy on the enemy camp. I was amazed: his speech was a total parrot of the whole regime, like they all have the same chip implanted or something.

[funkybutt]

14. wow that really sucks

that couldnt be in your job description!!!

As far as the Senate race goes: I thought that if no candidate got greater than 50% of the vote, then there would be a run off between the top R and D.

Congressman William Jefferson Endorses John Kennedy for LA U.S. Senate Seat. I think that is a powerful endorsment. I'd say it'll be a toss up between him and Chris John for the D spot. Personally, I like Arther Morrell. I've met him on several occasions. An article about him in the Times Picayune was titled "CHAMPION OF POOR: Arthur Morrell". Unfortunatley, he doesn't really have a shot at this thing. Basically has NO major contributors.

[BillZBubb]

10. Not this year, but I'd love to be wrong!

Dems can win Louisiana, but beating Bush* their is a long shot.

The one way I could be wrong is massive voter turnout.

[dolstein]

11. The Kerry campaign doesn't, and that's what matters

They haven't run ads in Lousiana for quite some time, and they haven't poured the kinds of organizational resources into the state that they'd need to carry it. The fact is, the Kerry campaign has written off the state, just as they appear to have written off every other Southern state with the exception of Florida. Even though there are polls showing some Southern states, like Virginia, Arkansas and North Carolina, as potentially competitive, the fact remains that Florida is the only Southern state where Kerry is actually running ads.

[crispini]

15. Ads, schmads.

I don't care what the Kerry campaign writes off, I don't care where you are.

GET OUT AND DO GRASSROOTS, everybody! Register voters, do GOTV, precinct walk.

(said the Texan, who is shooting for purple at least.)

Check out our voter registration blog in Dallas!

http://www.dallasforkerry.com/blog/journal/journal_comments.asp?JournalID=10

[funkybutt]

16. Check out the grassroots voter registration "parade" we had

it was a 9/11 commemorative "second line" (which is based on the New Orleans Jazz Funeral tradition) We registered voters and drummed up interest in some of the most disenfranchised areas of New Orleans

http://www.magnjc.com:8000/gallery

on edit: the slideshow is the easiest way to view the photos

I agree! Kerry and the "campaign" may have given up on us a LONG LONG time ago. We don't care! We're determined, driven and PISSED OFF! I do believe some support from the campaign could have made a huge difference down here...but OH WELL.

I've personally registered 55 people so far. SHooting for 75 before the deadline! GO GRASSROOTS!

[crispini]

18. cool, go you!

Great pix.

[sleipnir]

12. Not a Swing State, but certainly "in play."

It's too far to Bush at this point to be swing, but it's still close enough to be in play. Let's hope all your hard work pays off for a win!

[ClassWarrior]

13. EVERY state's a swing state this time around, baby!!

Get working!!

23.

[Awsi Dooger]

19. Like Gore, Kerry has poorly handicapped Louisiana as unwinnable

I don't give a damn about internals. Recent presidential numbers and those senate/gov results scream that Louisiana could be in play with proper emphasis. The state is much less consistently partisan Republican in trend than several we have higher hopes for, namely Colorado. Just check out these numbers, with comparison to the national average at right:

Louisiana:
'88: Bush (54.27 - 44.06) = + 2.49% Republican
'92: Clinton (45.58 - 40.97) = + 0.95% Republican
'96: Clinton (52.01 - 39.94) = + 3.54% Democrat
'00: Bush (52.55 - 44.88) = + 8.18% Republican

As you can see, the state was consistently drifting our way from '88 through '96 in relation to the national popular vote average, with Clinton winning by an amazing 12+%. THAT WAS A GREATER PERCENTAGE VICTORY THAN CLINTON MANAGED IN IOWA, MISSOURI, PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN, NEW HAMPSHIRE, OREGON, NEW MEXICO, OHIO AND NEVADA!! VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO CLINTON'S NUMBERS IN CALIFORNIA AND MICHIGAN.

I have no idea why we gave up between '96 and 2000, other than Gore made plenty of other mistakes and Kerry, unfortunately, is following suit.