What happens if Dean wins Iowa and Clark wins NH?

[Bush loves Jiang]

How will the primary develop?

Would Clark upset Edwards and Sharpton in SC?

Would Dean easily carry the midwest?

[trumad]

1. They're tied

[aquart]

2. Well, then, it will be up to the Democratic voters

In the other states to finally come to a consensus.

It just means we all get a hand in the decision.

How is that a bad thing?

[Dookus]

3. If Clark wins NH

which is admittedly very unlikely, he becomes the immediate frontrunner and it would be a near-fatal blow to Dean.

[jpgpenn]

4. I agree 100%

[ClarkGraham2004]

13. Yes, he would have money and huge mo going into Feb 3rd.

[TexasSissy]

19. I agree.

But as a Clark supporter, I must admit that it seems unlikely that Clark would win NH, that not being his neck of the woods and since he's only been in the race a few months. But a strong second showing there? Wow. That was unexpected.

But if Clark did win NH, Dean would not drop out. He's in it for the long haul, as are Clark and Kerry. The next set of primaries I think would be more decisive.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

5. What would happen if...

Aquaman and Batman met in a duel to the death?

Near the water, but not in it. (Amphibian advantage?)

[JaneQPublic]

18. LOL!!! ...(nt)

[Closer]

6. No use speculating

Clark won't win New Hampshire. No how. No way.

Despite a recent surge, I predict Kerry will squeak out a 2nd place win in NH and in Iowa.

He'll stay in the race for a while.

Dean will win SC, AZ, NM and Michigan.

Clark will only win Oklahoma. He'll drop out.

[Lobo_13]

7. At worst

Ultimately Dean will win. It would probably drag it out for a couple of weeks.

[poskonig]

8. Clark runs away with the election.

NH is a must win for Dean. If Clark defeats Dean and Kerry in NH, I see a Clark sweep in many close states on February 3rd.

[Printer70]

9. Clark wins in NH? Is he even beating Undecided?

Clark hasn't got a shot in NH. He's not in Iowa. He's on the national polls, but nowhere early on and as a result of his poor early showing, the undecideds will break for Dean. Clark will probably go back working for a Club for Growth shop again or perhaps run as independent in 2008.

[Dookus]

10. Yes...

clark's at 20%. Undecideds at 16%.


Clark's gone up 8 points since the poll started. Dean's dropped 4.

[deminflorida]

11. The only shocking thing about this is how shocked Dean...

supporters are going to be after they realize how far they are from the mainstream American Democratic voters....

[kerry-is-my-prez]

24. And the really ironic thing is that his candidate is not with them either

THAT will be the real shocker.

[pasadenaboy]

12. Advantage Clark

Dean has to win NH.

But if Dean wins both, with his organization he will be able to wrap it up. Clark will do well in SC and OK and few other states, but he doesn't have a national organization, so NH is really important for him. If he starts out without Iowa and NH, he won't have time to build an organization between winning SC and the rest of the primaries.

Just my opinion.

[beanball]

14. The democrats

must stop this bickering,Bush and Chaney are the targets,so lets all get behind the two best candidates,Dean and Clark then we can go out and as Ali said whup their evil asses.

[stickdog]

15. We'll really need to move quickly on the voting machine controversy! (nt)

[tedoll78]

16. Here's what is going to happen:

Dean will go the Iowa caucuses with a nice lead. In fact, Trippi will direct some precinct captains to divert some votes to Kerry so that Kerry finishes impressively (maybe even in second, if Gep is imploding).

Kerry gets a boost from this showing, and ends-up finishing second behind Dean in New Hampshire, who also benefits with a boost from Iowa.

With victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, the media spends the week before Feb 3rd asking, "Can anyone stop Dean?" Dean, now with a confirmed winner's aura, gets a nationwide, state-by-state poll bounce anywhere from 5 to 15%. Since he's narrowly leading or tied at the top in most states, this carries him to victory in most states on Feb 3rd.

In South Carolina, the Dean Bloc votes monolithically. The "Hey - He's A Southerner!" Bloc is divided between Edwards and Clark, with some conservative votes also being pulled by Lieberman. Dean, with the previous week's bounce, wins by a small margin.

With victories in NH, IA, and SC (and most other Feb 3rd states), Dean is at that point not stoppable.

...

While I have no crystal ball, this is what my instinct is telling me. Take it for what it's worth. :P

[genius]

17. Bye Bye Dean.

I think Kucinch will do better than expected. Check out the criminal justice thread links. Dean is the kind of guy who makes Reagan look like a liberal Democrat. That's not a flame. It's a fact. Reagan (whom I couldn't stand) appointed better nominees (most of which were fascists) than Dean did in Vermont. Note that the word fascist was applied to Reagan's nominees. The word I have for Dean's appointments would not be appropriate here.

[John_H]

20. That won't happen, and either way the race is far from over.

[KaraokeKarlton]

21. Clark won't win NH

And he's going to have a 3 way battle with Lieberman and Kerry for second that's going to get nasty. None of these guys are going to catch Dean, and they don't have to in order to have a respectable finish because everyone knows Dean is going to win NH. That means Lieberman and Clark are going to lay off Dean and go for Clark's jugular to try to knock him out of second place.

[Dookus]

22. Yes, Dean will win NH (probably)

but Clark is pulling ahead into a clear strong second place. The latest ARG tracking poll puts him at 21% compared to Kerry's 10%.

[JVS]

23. Steel Cage Deathmatch

That is what would happen