For Clark to have a real chance, a couple candidates have to drop out

[ringmastery]

Would Kerry, Gephardt, or Lieberman consider dropping out after poor showings in Iowa and NH and endorse Clark, if Clark places a strong second in NH?

If they truly believe that Dean is the anti-christ and will lead the Dems to a horrible defeat in November, they have to put the good of the party ahead of their egos and ambition. They should winnow the field and pledge their support to Clark and make this a competitive two-man race.

I'm suggesting Clark because he's closed the gap and is within the margin of error of Dean in the national polls, and he seems to have the Clinton's and the party establishment behind him already.

[JVS]

1. They might not be too eager to back out for a recent arrival to the party

I also doubt that they are all united in an ABD strategy.

On edit: I also wouldn't count on supporters of those candidates to flock immediately to Clark.

[POed_Ex_Repub]

2. Hard to say how that would play out...

Has anyone done a poll on who people would vote for if candidate XYZ dropped out of the race?

[patricia92243]

3. I thought Bush was the anti-Christ?

[mattgunns81]

4. Dean is the man!

Dean is the only one who can regain the whitehouse.
Do you really think Clark has a chance, or Rev. Al or even worse Kerry. None of them have aprayer except maybe Edwards but no one will give him the time of day. Dean is it or another 4 years of Bush.

[POed_Ex_Repub]

6. Welcome to DU mattgunns81!!

:hi:

[Padraig18]

12. Welcome to DU, Matt!

Chicago boy here, too! :hi:

[Sean Reynolds]

5. I think a lot has to happen for Clark to actually win.

By skipping out on Iowa he's put a lot of his eggs in NH. I think if Dean wins Iowa by 10+ points, he'll win NH soundly. But that isn't the real issue that haunts the Clark campaign. It's the fact Kerry is actually coming up on Gephardt's ass in Iowa. A new LA Times poll has him only down a few points. IF he has a strong 3rd place showing, those votes will in return help him in NH. If you look at the ARG tracking 90% of Clark's support has come from the Kerry camp. So it wouldn't be shocking to see a lot of them turn back TO Kerry if he does well in Iowa, hurting Clark. Dean doesn't get hurt here because he never lost support to Clark and if he wins Iowa soundly, which is by 10+ points he'll take a lot of undecided voters into his column. Clark's rise in NH hasn't been because of the undecided, it's been Kerry and Kerry alone.

Clark will REALLY be hurt if Kerry actually PASSES Gephardt for the second spot. If Kerry finishes second in Iowa, Clark's probably lost HIS second spot in NH. Kerry will come in second with around 20% of the vote, Dean probably around 45% of the vote and Clark will be 3rd. That won't help him in the next primary states. Why? Because he's put a lot of eggs into the New Hampshire basket. Clark finishing a distant 3rd pales and with Dean and Kerry getting most of the media attention, the final blow will be SC.

Of course Kerry might lose some support and not do so well in Iowa. BUT if Dean soundly defeats Gephardt, that'll give him a BIG push into NH, which could give him 10 extra points in the polls. If that happens, he'll shoot up to around 45-50% (undecided tend to sway toward the one they think will win). Clark coming in a distant second here doesn't help him any heading into SC. A state that last showed Dean leading.

Now if Dean has a bad showing in Iowa, as well as Kerry, Clark is prime at having a strong showing. I think Dean's support would probably go down to 30%, Clark would rise to about 30% and it'd be a tooth and nailes race. In the long run Clark wins though because it'll flow over into the other primary states. BUT IMO, that is asking for both DEAN and KERRY to have a horrible showing in Iowa. That might be too much.

[tedoll78]

9. Me too.

Dean will win Iowa now. And Trippi will engineer a strong finish for Kerry via precinct captains checking-in by cell phone. He will order some of Dean's spare votes to be thrown to Kerry, perhaps even having Kerry edge-out Gephardt.

With a victory in Iowa, Dean will get a bounce in New Hampshire. It happens to almost everyone who wins Iowa. This guarantees a strong showing in New Hampshire for Dean. Kerry, bouyed by a stronger-than-expected win in Iowa, will place second. Clark will come in third.

With victories in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the media will spend the week between NH & SC asking, "Can anyone stop Dean?" Dean will have a winner's aura embued on him, and will recieve a bounce nationwide in state-by-state polls. Since Dean is usually first or tied at the top of most of these state-by-state contests, such a bounce will prove very handy.

South Carolina will come along. Edwards and Clark will divide the "Hey - He's A Southerner!" Vote, with Lieberman pulling some of the more conservative voters would would've otherwise went for the two Southerners. The Dean Bloc, unified and bounced, will narrowly triumph.

With victories in IA/NH/SC (and elsewhere), Dean will be too strong to be stopped. He has organization everywhere, he has money out the ying-yang, and his supporters are significantly more likely to show-up to events and voting booths. While many will be disappointed by a Dean nomination, at least we'll be able to unify early and all turn our fire back onto the Chimp.

I don't have a crystal ball, but this is how I see things playing-out. Harkin's endorsement came at THE perfect time, pulling Dean's ass out of the fire just when things were beginning to get really hot..

[Toronto Ron]

10. Another set of possibilities...

I think Dean will win Iowa, but not by a large margin, giving him perhaps a small boost for NH. Gephardt will probably still drop out. Kerry will come in 3rd with less than 20%, providing him no boost for NH. Clark places 2nd in NH; Kerry drops. Edwards, finishing no better than 4th in Iowa and NH, may drop out at this point, i.e. prior to SC. Most Edwards and Kerry supporters (maybe Gephardt's too) go to Clark, giving him a great advantage in SC and other Feb 3 primaries. (My apologies, Edwards & Kerry supporters, since I am a big fan of them too.)

Overall though, I have to admit that Dean is still the most likely to win the nomination, I'd say about 60% chance (I was saying 75% a couple of weeks ago). Clark 35%, with 5% for a Kerry (Edwards?) surprise.

[tedoll78]

11. In the end,

I do agree with your odds. I'm not sure that Edwards will drop before South Carolina; I see that as his last chance to catch fire. It is his next-door state.

Either way, Dean, Clark, Edwards, Kerry.. all are excellent people to represent us.

[TexasPatriot]

13. i think that's probably the plan on the whiteboard

but i'm not sure it'll play out that way. Now that Clark is moving up it's hard to tell whether the 'keep em all in and win by default' strategy is going to work now.

[mouse7]

7. Countdown to detonation... 2 hours

The Kerry people start waking up on the East Coast in about 2 hours. This thread will detonate like a 3 ton pile of C-4 when they do.

[JohnKleeb]

8. why would they wake up at six on a saturday?

:evilgrin: