LA Times- Dean Is Ahead But Iowa Up For Grabs

[maddezmom]

WASHINGTON — Howard Dean has established a narrow advantage in the Iowa caucuses by amassing a solid lead among upscale voters while cutting into Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt's support among blue-collar and union families, a new Times Poll found.

Barely a week before the Jan. 19 voting, Dean led Gephardt 30% to 23%, a difference just within the poll's margin of error. Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry, with 18%, remained within reach of Gephardt, while North Carolina Sen. John Edwards attracted 11%.

The survey also showed likely caucus voters were surprisingly fluid in their commitments to the candidates, even after months of intensive campaigning.

About 1 in 11 said they remain undecided in the race. More significantly, nearly 40% who express a preference say they could still switch before the caucuses. ~snip~


more: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll11jan11,1,3764349.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[tedoll78]

1. Something big to remember:

This poll was taken BEFORE the Harkin announcement.

[maddezmom]

2. yes, that's mentioned in the article

<<The poll was completed before the latest controversy surrounding Dean, the release of a 2000 television interview in which he derided the caucuses as "dominated by special interests." It also was conducted before Sen. Tom Harkin, Iowa's most influential Democrat, endorsed Dean on Friday.>>

[RUexperienced]

3. Poll was also before Dean's latest gaffes

"Iowa caucus is run by special interests and extremists."

"There is good and bad" in the terrorist group Hamas.

And the Gore remark.

[JaneQPublic]

5. "Gaffes" means "not PC by Washington Insider standards"

What makes Dean statements "Gaffes"? Are they inaccurate? No, just unpopular and unconventional. He's not saying all the same safe, bland, focus-group-tested statements that presidential candidates are supposed to utter.

-- He said "If you look at the caucuses system, they are dominated by the special interests in both parties.” Everyone knows it's true. Hell, every election system is dominated with special interests. So where's the fire?

-- About Hamas, he speculated that there “will probably be good and bad” if Hamas takes control over the Palestinian leadership, the good being "they may actually have to be more responsible and start negotiations." Is that untrue? How can it be, it's speculation about something that hasn't occurred.

-- About Gore, he said, “He has a lot of attributes, but… there are some things that I am concerned about. One of them is being quick on your feet. He is not.” I am as big an Al Gore fan as anyone, but let's face it, he did not respond quickly enough to the false charges and characterizations of him in the 2000 campaign.

It's just amazing. Everybody, the public and pundits alike, complains that politicians never say what they mean, but only speak in pre-packaged, politically expedient sound bites. Then along comes Howard Dean, who speaks his mind, no matter how un-PC or un-CW, and what do they do? They call it "Gaffes"!

What a steaming heap of BS!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

10. Worthy of it's own thread.

[realdem]

6. Latest Gaffe? Four Years ago!

And it wasn't a gaffe. It was him speaking his mind based on what he knew at the time. It ain't pretty in hind sight, but far from a gaffe.

[janx]

13. You got the first quote wrong.

But then so did the media. He mentioned nothing about Iowa--he did mention the caucus process.

[deminflorida]

4. He had to have Harkin....

just to slow the bleeding down...but why the hell was he bleeding in the first place? Who the hell is going to step in and stop him from bleeding a week before the November elections?

That's the question not only Iowa voters should be asking but the rest of the party as well.

[TexasPatriot]

7. he's bleeding

because he and lieberman are the only ones with 'disapproval' ratings higher than Bush in the Gallup poll

Dean is right when he says he's not losing his core people - but he's not getting the undecideds either. Harkin's endorsement will help with that.

[stickdog]

9. Dean's getting killed with a thousand paper cuts.

Everything he does or ever did is being spen against him.

Neither Bush nor Clark could handle a single week of this sort of smear storm.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

12. Imagine Chimp under this scrutiny.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

15. undecideds in Iowa

I talked to countless ndecideds in Iowa, and Dean was on almost everyone's short list. It was Dean or Edwards or Dean or Kerry in almost every case.

I also learned that most don't pay attention to the media or the sniping, they are more concerned about the issues and about who can win.

[stickdog]

8. He's bleeding because the media, three DL Dems & Rove all have out

the knives.

And they still got nothing.

[Hep]

11. Not news

Dean's campaign has never considered Iowa anything BUT up for grabs.

[Ramsey]

19. That's exactly right

The Dean campaign never expected to be in this position. When I met him back in March 2003, he said that he'd be happy to be in the top three in Iowa and hopefully number 2 in New Hampshire.

Believe me, the campaign is ecstatic to even be a little bit ahead in the Iowa polls, much less way ahead in NH.

[TexasSissy]

14. Wow. Interesting. Most still haven't decided? That's amazing,

this close to the caucus.

[Bucky]

16. "40% who express a preference say they could still switch"

I agree with Sissy. This is very important. It could create a Dean blowout. He needs to manage expectations, but between Harkin's endorsement and the torrent of volunteers pouring in, Dean could make big BIG news in Iowa.

[maddezmom]

17. good points Bucky

:)

[stickdog]

18. And I'm sure that percentage is MUCH smaller for current Dean supporters.

Aren't y'all?

[tedoll78]

20. Yes.

Candy Crowley (I can't believe I'm quoting her!) says that she's noticed that Dean supporters are pretty solid in Iowa. If this is true, Dean is in really good shape. Undecideds will see Dean frolicking with Gore, Bradley, and Harkin for most of next week, and they're gonna flock. And this doesn't even take into account The Perfect Storm..

[maddezmom]

21. kick

:kick: