Comparing DU Polls on Clark/Dean electability vs. Bush

[gulliver]

Here is a comparison of the current (12-20-03 9:20 CST) results of the two DU polls comparing electability of Clark and Dean vs. Bush.

Snapshot of Clark's results:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=4399


Snapshot of Dean's:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=759#820


It looks like there is a normal curve in the middle of each one, both reaching a maximum at 51-60%. If you throw out the two tails (0-10% and 90-100%) of each chart, Clark's numbers look better. The majority of Clark's votes are to the positive side of 51-60%. The majority of Dean's votes are to the negative side.

Then consider the two tails of each chart. Dean's numbers in the 0-10% and 90-100% buckets are higher than his 51-60% bucket. Not so with Clark. One interpretation of that might be that the degree of "pulling for your candidate" vs. objectively ranking him against Bush is higher in Dean's case (to the positive and negative) than in Clark's case.

One might even consider that a measure of the candidate's "divisiveness factor." Dean's votes are less balanced across the center than Clark's. (Flame away on that one. It's just a thought on edit.)

Disclaimer: I had one statistics class in college but am not a statistician by any stretch.

[quinnox]

1. good analysis

This is one example of why I think Dean will not be the nominee. He is a most divisive figure in the party, while Clark and the others are all basically allied with each other much more closely in regards to their campaign rhetoric. As the other candidates drop out, I don't see their candidates supporters going to Dean, but to the other candidates. While Dean has a hardcore group of support, it will be difficult to expand this base much more than a certain limited number because of his campaign tactics and rhetoric which boils down to "Dean vs everyone else" i.e. the outsider stuff, and the Washington politician talk, the "America isn't any safer because of Hussein's capture", etc. While this type of campaign talk fueld Dean's rise, ironically in the end I think it will prove to be his undoing as the primary season unfolds.

[Zynx]

2. Dean has the highest favorability ratings of any candidate.

Explain that.

[Bucky]

8. He's got a plurality in support among Dems. Ergo his favorability lead

That's the explanation.

[Myra]

10. It's a very good analysis.

Thanks gulliver.

[boxster]

3. Under 50%...Clark: 28%, Dean 56%. Over 50%...Clark 72%, Dean 44%

It doesn't take a statistics professor or expert to interpret those numbers!

Looks very obvious to me that you are correct. The prevailing opinion of the DUers who voted in these polls is that Clark has a much, much better chance of winning the election.

That mirrors my personal opinion. It is so obvious to me that Bush and the media will make this election about foreign policy, national defense, and the war on terror. In that situation, Clark is by far the better choice. Dean just can't compete with Clark on those types of issues.

[ozone_man]

4. DU polls reflects DU, not the nation.

So, if we were electing a president of DU, your poll would be interesting.

Perhaps you should poll a Republican web site and see who is more electable? I would put a lot more confidence in national polls, and the ones that I've see, indicate Dean leading against Bush.

[boxster]

5. Dean leading against Bush?

Would you please provide links to those polls?

Recent polls that I've seen (and that have been extensively discussed on DU lately) show Bush anywhere from 8 to 21 points ahead of Dean.

If you have others, please provide links, as I'm sure many of us would like to see them.

[gulliver]

6. I've seen national head-to-head polls vs. Bush ...

... going both ways. Much more often than not, I recall Clark's disadvantage vs. Bush being smaller than Dean's. No one yet leads Bush AFAIK.

Even so, I don't think the head-to-head Dem candidate vs. Bush polls are stable or indicative of what the election will really be like yet. One reason is that a generic democrat usually seems to do better against Bush than any of the actual candidates! Name recognition and the degree of "undecideds" also figure in.

The polls cited above are an informed estimate of DUers. I say "informed" because I believe DUers are very informed. And I believe their estimate is probably reasonably valid.

[Bucky]

7. I can see from the images how you voted

You voted 81-90% for Clark, 30-40% for Dean.

[gulliver]

9. That's a pretty cool observation!

Yes, that's how I voted!