NH- Dean Leads by 20 pts in New Poll

[Rose Siding]

New Poll Shows Dean Leads Democrats
Clark, Kerry 20 Points Behind Dean

POSTED: 8:43 AM EST January 10, 2004

CONCORD, N.H. -- Howard Dean is holding onto a commanding lead in the Democratic presidential race in New Hampshire less than three weeks before the crucial contest on Jan. 27, a poll released Saturday found.

Wesley Clark and John Kerry were competing for second place, close to 20 points behind Dean, the former Vermont governor, according to the poll taken by Research 2000 for the Concord Monitor. Dean had the backing of 34 percent, retired Gen. Clark of 14 percent and Massachusetts Sen. Kerry of 13 percent. Other candidates were in single digits with 18 percent undecided.

http://www.thechamplainchannel.com/wnne/2755466/detail.html

[JaneQPublic]

1. Yeah, but, but, but, wasn't he, like, 40 points ahead before?

Damn, he is PLUMMETING in the polls! /sarcasm

[Renew Deal]

4. Down 7

is a pretty big drop

[Hep]

6. Yeah dammit

All is lost now that he's only 20 points ahead.

Considering where people thought he would be a year ago, I'd rather say that gaining 30% in a year is a pretty impressive feat.

[JaneQPublic]

7. LOL! And a Big Margin of Error: +/- 5 points (nt)

[Renew Deal]

11. Ask Bush, Tsonagas, and others if you think it's funny.

We have seen shifting in NH before.

[eyesroll]

2. Good news for Clark, less good news for Dean (he's still ahead but

slipping a bit), and really not-so-good news for Kerry (since he's slipped tremendously over the last few weeks, and NH is a "border state" for him).

[Renew Deal]

3. 2 points and a questions

1. Clark's surge must be for real.
2. Dean dropped 7 points
3. Who did they survey? Dems, Independents??? What are the percentages. That makes a big difference. If this is all dems or close to it, this is good for Clark. If this is mixed then it is harder to say.

[JaneQPublic]

8. "likely voters"

"The poll of 405 likely voters in the New Hampshire primary was taken Jan. 6-8 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5 percentage points."

[KaraokeKarlton]

9. It's not better to do best among Dems in NH

Independents are the majority in NH and you can't win a NH primary without doing very well with them. Dean is doing extremely well with Independents. These polls never poll enough Independents, either. Dean's level of support in NH is even stronger than this poll indicates. :D

[Renew Deal]

12. Don't be so sure

There has been some shiifting and it won't take much shifting to change the race.

[KaraokeKarlton]

21. Oh, I am confident that I can be sure

I'm in NH every day because I work there.

[Cheswick2.0]

5. Dean has twenty points on his rivals

excellent news.

[mmonk]

10. All this

is basically bad news to the Kerry campaign.

[cthrumatrix]

13. how can this be anything but good..... this is not a wrap against any

cadidates...a 20 pt margin is pretty good.

An the endorsement by Harkin is pretty nice too.

[Hep]

14. A reason why Clark and Kerry supporters should bite their nails

You don't get 15%, you don't get delegates to the convention.

[mmonk]

15. A second place showing

for a late entrance will be a spring board for us going into other states. For Kerry, the beginning of the end.

[Hep]

17. I'm not so sure

Winning a nomination is about delegates on the floor of the convention. No number of second place finishes will help you if you don't get the statutory minimum percentage of votes.

[mmonk]

19. Its about momentum

to challenge. There are lots of delegates out there in the rest of the country.

[dfong63]

29. and Dean has the big mo

[JVS]

34. Winning 2nd with less than 15% would not show Clark has momentum

It would show that Dean kicked everyone's ass soundly. Momentum award goes to Dean in that scenario.

[dfong63]

32. about time to stop using the "late entry" excuse

that was Clark's excuse for skipping IA. it's getting old. the late entry was entirely Clark's fault. he could have entered months ago. instead while the other candidates built their campaign machines and tuned them, Clark spent those months gazing at his navel. the draft-Clark people said it was a brilliant strategy. well either they were wrong, or else the "late entry" is not a valid excuse for lackluster performance.

[JVS]

35. Hopefully he'll be more speedy with his exit

[shivaji]

47. Will Rove answer his phone call now? I heard rumors

heart patient Cheney is not running for VP in 2004.

[Rose Siding]

23. 15% is the number that counts

That is the news here

[nightperson]

16. "Undecided" is in 2nd?

Strange as it may be, a candidate named "undecided" seems to be solidly in 2nd place, 4 points ahead of Clark, who is a mere point ahead of Kerry. Add the margin of error, and we may still know little about what's going on.

[mmonk]

18. true

but they have been coming Clark's way. Kerry can still move up though which I deem critical to his campaign.

[EXE619K]

20. No need to count chickens yet.....

Let's not "gloat" over this fellow Dean supporters.

I'm sure you're all well aware of the fact that +20 is nothing to rejoice about at this point in the game...esp. in Hampshire.

I hope Kerry comes in for the close second.

For all the things that he's done for the party, the man deserves some respect.


DEAN LEADS THE WAY!

[chocolateeater]

22. I agree and Welcome to DU.

:toast:

[Progressive420]

28. If Kerry Doesnt finish a close second

it will really hurt him and if Clark finishes a close 2nd it will really help him after NH

[dfong63]

33. absolutely agree

although it's tempting when one sees the Clark supporters prematurely gloating over coming in 2nd.

[Auntie Bush]

55. We're not gloating! We are just happy

we have come so far in only 4 months and starting from scratch.
Can anyone deny that that is pretty good? After all Kerry comes from a neighboring state and has campaigned here for over a year. Then Clark comes from AK...out of no where and is at least for now in second place. Can anyone say we don't have something to be proud of and happy about? We're not gloating! We are just happy! Congratulate us...don't attack us!

[sandnsea]

24. Same as in October

Dean 33%, Kerry 18%, Clark 14%. Kerry's gone down a bit but that'll turn around quickly if he does well in Iowa. I'm surprised these numbers are so stagnant.

[ozone_man]

25. I predict a Dean surge after Iowa.

I think he will get back up to 40% by the NH primary.

[tedoll78]

26. Correct -

the winner in Iowa typically does get a boost in NH.

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

54. Usually good for a 10 point bump....that's the conventional wisdom

[sandnsea]

36. Dean is tanking

He's down in Survey USA in Iowa, down in ARG NH, down in the national CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. This poll shows he hasn't budged after 3 months and millions of dollars of advertising and all the endosements and all the frontrunner press. He's done, finito, washed up. The majority of Democrats don't want him and are looking at Clark or Kerry as alternatives. It's between the two of them now.

[tedoll78]

38. That's very, very cute.

Why would Harkin endorse a 'tanking' candidate?

[sandnsea]

50. Oh very simple

So nobody can cry about how Dean lost because he had no Democratic Party support. Dean's done.

[Padraig18]

42. Thanks for the laugh!

I haven't enjoyed a horse laugh like that in ages, sandnsea! :P

[sandnsea]

52. He who laughs last

laughs the loudest. }(

[WI_DEM]

43. tanking?

That is hilarious. To be 15-20 points ahead in NH and 4-10 points ahead in Iowa is tanking?

If you thought that Dean would maintain a 30-point lead in NH then you don't understand politics very well. Competitive races like this always tighten in the last weeks. Given the attacks on Dean by his rivals and the national press I would say he is doing very well.

By the way, one of the polls in Iowa showed Dean actually increasing his lead from 26% to 29% and Gep falling a point from 26% to 25% so that is not really tanking.

As for the Gallup national numbers that is fine. Clark was leading Dean nationally in September and October after he got in the race, but Dean battled back. He will keep battling. Other polls show his numbers higher nationally than Gallup, so I don't worry about it.

[sandnsea]

53. Since December

The middle of December to be exact, Dean has gone down, down, down. And since he isn't able to keep his foot out of his mouth, there's no doubt he has nowhere to go but down, down, down. He's gotten all the support he's going to get, the rest will end up with Clark or Kerry. If they'd wanted Dean, they'd be there already.

All the money, media and endorsements have done absolutely nothing for him.

[shivaji]

48. A Front Runner by definition has always the most to lose

So, it is not surprising Dean has not gained much lately,
but what IS AMAZING is inspite of all the attacks from Lieberman
and Clark and Kerry, and media bashing, Dean is rock solid in the
front runner position.

This is grrrrrrrreat!!

[Padraig18]

27. Polling 2 1/2 times higher than your nearest rival = 'A commanding lead'

:)

[JVS]

30. Keep up the good work in NH Dean supporters!

[kentuck]

31. The American Research Group has Dean up by 14 over Clark...

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/demtrack/

[sandnsea]

37. Still down ten from December

Like I said above, with all the media, money and endorsements, Dean should be steaming ahead. He's not. The majority of Democrats don't want him.

[HFishbine]

39. A Larger Majority of Democratics

Don't want Kerry, or Clark, or Lieberman, or Edwards, or Gephardt, or... you get the idea.

[Capn Sunshine]

40. so ,Dean could lose 50% of his support

and still WIN by 10 points, which is huge anywhere but around the little campfires of DU.

I could imagine the way such a win would be portrayed by opposing camps.

[democratreformed]

51. Assuming no one else picks up any of course n/t

[WI_DEM]

41. news is good for Dean

It shows he is still solidly in the lead. His percentage in this poll is nearly identical to his percentage in the ARG tracking poll. I would say that Dean is anywhere from 15-20 points ahead. If he wins by anywhere over ten points that is a solid victory and he will have bragging rights.

[slinkerwink]

44. if Clark doesn't break 15% in NH, there's no way he can get

delegates and show that he has the big MO.

[Auntie Bush]

56. Hey Slinkerwink...question ?

Can you or anyone else please explain how the whole delegate thingie works? What are superdelegates and how do you get them vs delegates? etc. etc.etc. I'm sure (or I hope) I'm not the only one here that could use a quick explanation. Please anyone..feel free to answer.

[jsw_81]

45. Poor John Kerry

Wouldn't it be humiliating if he places third in New Hampshire?

[slinkerwink]

46. but not if he comes in 2nd in IA, and then uses that to get 2nd place

from Clark.

[shivaji]

49. WOW only 9 days to Iowa...I am getting excited n/t