10/1 ELECTION MODEL: KERRY 293 EV, 85% PROB, 51.0% OF THE VOTE

[TruthIsAll]

One day soon, the polls will confirm that Kerry won the debate.

The goal: Kerry's projection moves to 52% of the state-weighted popular vote. The EV's will follow.

Watch the trend, friend.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[Old and In the Way]

1. What a great site, TIA.

You've got an outstanding model and I think your variables are weighted appropriately.

Good stuff....bookmarked for reference.

[Carrion]

2. I want to believe!!!

Don't get me wrong, I love your site and I love your "results", but how are you getting these numbers? That are so out of sync with the rest of the world? What do you know that nobody else seems to??

[TruthIsAll]

5. See the links to electoral-vote.com and pollingreport.com

I download state polling data daily from electoral-vote.com. If they use a poll which, in my opinion, is beyond the pale and obviously biased for Bush, I will not override the prior state poll. Some may call this cherry-picking; I call it due diligence.

I don't want bogus polls to affect the model. A good example is the WI Badger Poll, which has Bush leading 52-38. I refuse to use it and continue to retain the prior ARG poll.

ARG and Zogby are professional, independent state/national pollsters whom I trust.

I project Kerry to win at least 60% of the undecided vote. That's why he is leading in the projected electoral vote and has a high win probability. The results are from the 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation, which is based on state polls.

For the national polls, I use Kerryt's average from the 9-poll (independent pollsters) group as well as his average from the 18-poll group (independents and corporate media) to project his popular vote percentages, respectively..

[Old and In the Way]

3. One suggestion on readability.

I won't challenge your data or your analysis, but, might I suggest boxing the cells that show the win probability, maybe increase the font size or bold, and use bright green to highlight the 85.1 figure....and bright red for Bush's.

That will drawing readers to the core message you are conveying....

[johan helge]

4. What if you assume that Bush steals Florida?

What does your model give then?

[TruthIsAll]

6. I have not modeled that contingency. Any thoughts?

tia

[johan helge]

7. They are crooks.

"We just have to assume that they'll steal Florida again," says one senior Kerry strategist (http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0730-02.htm).

[DeepModem Mom]

8. Thanks, TIA!

[TruthIsAll]

9. Sat kick..no polls today

tia