Good Grief!! Lieberman might beat Kerry in NH!!

[WI_DEM]

If this happens it would motivate Joe to stay in the race. Right now the ARG tracking poll has Kerry at 10% and Lieberman at 8%--a statistical dead heat.

Joe has a slightly higher favorable rating than Kerry==53% to 51% and both have 19% unfavorable ratings.

Dean maintains his 35% while Clark is now at 21%. But the battle for third place "bragging rights" is just as interesting. I have to say it, I feel sorry for Kerry. If he does come in fourth to Lieberman in NH that is very sad--and undeserved. But believe it or not, I guess Joe has been running the better campaign--and he has been soaking the Gore endorsement of Dean for all he can get--poor baby.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com

[Padraig18]

1. Pretty sad, isn't it?

:eyes:

[Jack_Dawson]

2. Oh GAWD

Please don't give Lieberman a reason to stick around. I hate seeing his face.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. He won't so don't worry about it.

[Padraig18]

6. I dunno.

His rise and Kerry's slide in the tracking poll are both consistent. Could happen... :puke:

[sleipnir]

4. NOOOOOOOOO!!!

Lieberman is the first I want to see out of the race, though, followed closely by Kerry. So it looks like I'll probably get one of my predictions after NH. I just wish it was Lieberman was going to drop out after NH, and not Kerry.

[ButterflyBlood]

5. keep Lieberman out of the top 3 in both Iowa and NH and he's toast

so I really hope this doesn't happen.

[blm]

7. Dean supporters in NH are driving down Kerry's numbers.

They have been actively selling the distortion that Kerry is a "corrupt Washington insider" there.

[WI_DEM]

13. sorry, but disagree

Kerry's numbers are sliding because he has run a bad campaign and kept trying a different approach to his vote on the Iraqi Resolution--none of which jelled with the public. His fall (from 19% when the tracking poll began to 10% now--almost half of his support) coincides with Clark's rise (12% when tracking poll began and 21% now). Dean's numbers have been relatively stable in the tracking poll. He started at 37% and stayed there for several days and then hit a high of 39% for one day and now has been stable at 35% for the past couple of days--really within the moe of the poll. Interestingly, 35% is the percentage which Mike Dukakis won the NH primary in '88. If Dean wins in Iowa he is going to get some kind of bump.

[quaker bill]

15. I disagree

Dean's numbers have been fairly consistent. However, as Clark has risen Kerry has fallen. This is the explanation that makes complete sense of the observed data.

Clark is the best non-IWR analog of Kerry. Both are military, both have foreign policy credentials, both are running on similar economic and social policy agendas. If you want a non-IWR voting candidate who otherwise carries all of Kerry's credentials, Clark is your man for sure.

The closely tracked races at this point all show the same dynamic. Clark rises at Kerry's expense.

[tedoll78]

8. Wait -

if Lieberman pulls this off, could he become a Big Mo story also?

[saltpoint]

9. Yessirree Bob --

-- Why, if ol' Joe Lieberman keeps at it, he just might upset President Eisenhower in the upcomin' 'lection.

***

Maybe Joe's brain did a time-warp plunge back into the mid-50s and he's running on themes that would have been effective for general election Democratic voters back then when Dwight and Mamie were in the White House and everybody was out buying a Sears washer&dryer set.

I want to like Joe Lieberman, but he left the truly great part of him down south years ago, when he battled for civil rights against a tide of prejudice. It's just sad to watch him thrash around this winter on issues well to Bush's right.

It doesn't matter who Lieberman "beats" in the primaries. He's a lost cause.

[Carni]

10. He is the one and only Dem candidate

That I WOULD NOT vote for!

[mouse7]

11. Kerry needs more graphic campaign aids

http://www.caglecartoons.com/images/preview/{3D1B5D8B-CAD6-49B5-BFA5-CBF632AF4028}.gif

[edzontar]

12. Kerry's slide is tragic and painful to watch...

I support Dean, of course, but Kerry is an overall good guy--I think the IWR vote and his terrible campaigning sty;;e--especially the humorless and ineffective attacks on Dean--are finally doing him in.

Sad, sad.

Joe deserves not a single vote in my opinion..but maybe the handful of wingnut-DINOs who support him are staying loyal.

[JailForBush]

14. You mean there are more than thirteen people in New Hampshire

who like Joe Lieberman?

Sheez, I thought that state was known for its political smarts.

[mmonk]

16. awful

(the only word that comes to mind).

[patricia92243]

17. It's interesting how everyone of us would have been overjoyed to have him

as our VP in 2000. Now nobody (including me) can stand him. I can't figure out what is the difference between then and now, but it sure is real - whatever it is.

[w13rd0]

20. I knew that Gore's selection of Lieberman in 2000...

...was due to pressure from the DNC and the DLC. It was a bad choice, but I forgave Gore for it. I HATED the VP selections of both the Dem and Pub (full disclosure: before the VPs were selected, I was still COMPLETELY a "swing" voter). The selection of Cheney and Lieberman made me re-examine both tickets. In the case of Bush, I investigated the whole Bush clan, and came away COMPLETELY repulsed by Bush. In the case of Gore, I became convinced Gore was actually a good man and a good candidate handicapped by the Democratic party establishment.

I was 100% right on both counts.

[Sean Reynolds]

18. You people are forgetting IOWA!

If Kerry has an above average showing there, I sense he'll over-take Clark in NH. In the end though he'll still lose to Dean.

[CMT]

19. I think you are right

in the end I think Clark's decision to not compete in Iowa will hurt him. I think Kerry will come close to Gep and that will give Kerry some traction in NH.