IA Strategy question: Help Sen. Kerry to hurt Gen. Clark?

[Padraig18]

I've been kicking this around and I wonder; IA looks like it will be a pretty clear-cut Dean victory, if not a blowout altogether, so with an eyes on NH and Wesley Clark, what do you think about this:

Using preset measures of support, etc., the Dean campaign decides to help Sen. Kerry to achieve a 'respectable second place' finish. With that bounce, Sen. Kerry heads to NH and reverses his 'slide' in the polls and holds Gen. Clark to less than the 15% required for delegates.

The campaign moves to SC, etc., and Dean, boosted by two consecutive wins and Kerry, with two solid 2nd place finishes are suddenly #1 and #2, because SC voters give Sen. Edwards a second look and he and gen. Clark divide the 'southern vote', giving either Dean or Kerry 1st with the other 2nd.

Your thoughts?

[HFishbine]

1. That's the plan

But it takes a pretty cocky view of IA.

[Padraig18]

2. We have every reason to be confident, at this point.

Cocky? Yeah, a little---but not a lot. ;)

[Renew Deal]

5. You would not be cocky if you understood Iowa

Remember, people can change their minds. If voters notice these shenanigans, they may change.

[MIMStigator]

52. yup especially since Dean has already been accused of fraud

if he's already thought of as a fraud this will backfire because it looks like more fraud and manipulation

[HFishbine]

7. No one more bullish on Dean

I have Dean two points over your 50% prediction in the Official IA Prediction thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=94936

(Of course, if "the plan" gets implemented, my predicions go down the toilet.)

[Padraig18]

9. I noticed.

:thumbsup:

[Renew Deal]

3. There is a difference between Dean supporters and Dean voters

Dean supporters might be willing. Dean voters will probably not. Clark needs to hope the caucaus is close so no one can pull any games. Also, Dean has to worry about the anti-dean there. If Edwards is limited or someone else, those votes probably won't go to Dean.

[Padraig18]

6. I dunno.

Harkin's endosement means a lot, and I think Dean voters are also Dean supporters, and would want to do what's best for our campaign overall. :)

[Renew Deal]

15. I know

but people don't want to be manipulated. If they go there to vote for Dean, they want to vote for Dean.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

62. More dirty tricks from the Dean contingency. How do youall sleep at night?

n/t

[MIMStigator]

53. Maybe there isn't if the reports about out of state supporters voting

are true

:hi:

[windansea]

4. you lost me after first sentence

it won't be a blowout

[Padraig18]

8. We'll see.

:)

[Name removed]

10. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mmonk]

13. Let them strategize

we're starting to scare some campaigns. It may force someone into a mistake.

[Padraig18]

16. Laughable.

We're certainly not scared of the Clark campaign, I assure you.

[ClarkGraham2004]

17. ooooookaaay!!!!

:eyes:

[Padraig18]

18. n/t

:eyes: back at ya.

[ClarkGraham2004]

20. More smileys!!!

Make some more posts claiming Dean will blow everyone out and Clark sucks!! :)

[Padraig18]

22. Never made a post sating Clark sucks.

Can you document that I have?

[ClarkGraham2004]

24. Please stop talking

[Padraig18]

25. no, thank you. n/t

[KittyWampus]

27. What You Need To Be Scared Of Is The Crappy Campaign Dean Has

Had 2 years but just gets around to hiring Foriegn Policy Advisors and Discussing some kind of "Taxcut" for the Middle Class... when these two things are Dean's Weakest Links?

Then we've got Dean telling reporters his Staff won't let him talk anymore.

He allows the Rebel Flag comment to consume one news cycle when all he had to do is apologise.

Gets busted on the phone saying they're going negative on Clark.

Allows Sealed Records to consume several News Cycles and uses infantile remarks like "I'll show mine when he shows his." Lies about why the Records are sealed... admits he lied... then goes back to original lie in a debate.

[Padraig18]

32. The crappy campaign that's kicking everyone else's butts?

Yeah, we'll get right on changing that...:eyes:

[mmonk]

45. If its laughable

why the recent behavior of the campaign and why the need to strategize?

[Padraig18]

55. The need to strategize is ever-present.

And what 'recent behavior' are you referring to? :shrug:

[kerry-is-my-prez]

64. Why do you want to help the Kerry campaign in order to stop Clark then?

n/t

[JVS]

66. It never hurt anyone to be careful

[maddezmom]

34. guess ya read the article in the Globe yesterday :)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=88377

[Padraig18]

44. Thanks for the link.

Actually, I hadn't. :)

[maddezmom]

60. no problem

[goodhue]

11. still makes little sense to me

but at least here it is explicit as a stop Clark strategy.

I posted this news account of such a strategy yesterday and it pretty much sunk. (Forgot to attack Clark or Dean, I guess):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=88877

[IndianaGreen]

12. This is a divisive and unnecessary tactic - I condemn this idea!

Let the voters decide unencumbered by petty partisanship from overly enthusiastic (fill-in name) supporters!

Clark did not vote for IWR! If Clark comes in second, or even first, it is far preferable than having a pro-IWR candidate win.

[Padraig18]

14. It's not divisive.

It's politics. The object of the entire exercise, politically-speaking, is for your candidate to win. if this helps him, so be it.

[IndianaGreen]

21. The "win at all cost" way of doing business is part of the problem

This is the sort of thing that gave us the Dean/Osama ad, and the vicious "soft on terrorism" attacks on Dean from another candidate that shall remain nameless.

Winning is important, but equally important is how you win. How would you feel if the party bosses decide to fix the convention and a pro-IWR candidate becomes the "compromise" nominee?

[Padraig18]

23. The difference:

This is a grass-roots strategy; the other is, by definition, not.

[IndianaGreen]

30. I saw an example of such "grass-root" strategy today

I saw an example of such "grass-root" strategy today on an e-mail posted on several listservs for Dean supporters by a "joe_trippi" about paid intern positions in the Dean campaign. This enterprising "joe_trippi" added these words:

"Dean for America is currently seeking 5,000 motivated, resourceful, energetic and hardworking individuals of all ages, sizes, and backgrounds for our Paid Internship Madness Program. Due to close sleeping quarters homosexuals will not be accepted for this position."

The possibility that this "joe_trippi" could be a supporter of another Democratic candidate cannot be dismissed.

I don't think we need to sink to this level, don't you agree?

[hedda_foil]

48. Indiana .... the email you referenced was the topic of a blog headline ...

It's bogus and the campaign asked everyone to get the word out that this is an oppo tactic by unknown persons. Please, everybody, whichever candidate you support, watch out for emails that "seem" to be from a campaign but smell peculiar like this one does. Watch the return address. Obviously, Joe Trippi's not going to send email to supporters from a Yahoo account! Watch the campaign information at the bottom of the email. This one says "deanforamericans" not Dean for America (the official name of the campaign.

Since all these things can be gimmicked, though, if you have any concerns at all, please forward the email to the campaign in question, post it on their blog and ask if it's theirs. It's the only way to get the word out.

DO NOT FORWARD EMAIL THAT DOESN'T PASS THE SMELL TEST.

Remember, whoever this particular email is from, Rove WILL be using these techniques against our eventual candidate, and we have to train ourselves and our circle of friends/coworkers/relatives to be on the alert for this kind of thing.

[jonnyblitz]

19. Clark sees nothing wrong with School of the Americas

I think its a great idea ! :thumbsup:

[slinkerwink]

26. it's a horrible idea! Praising a school that has a record of its

graduates killing people in their countries is terrible! :puke:

[IndianaGreen]

40. Clark was praising WHISC, not SOA

WHISC was created as the result of legitimate criticism of SOA's curricula, and the human rights record of some of its graduates.

I suggest that you aim your fire at Bill Clinton for not abolishing SOA outright, and for pursuing Plan Colombia, which has brought more misery and deaths to the people in that unhappy region of the world than the individual acts of violence of some SOA graduates.

Personally, I think we should abolish WHISC and get out of the business of supporting oligarchies in Latin America!

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

28. That is precisely the strategy being implemented

Kudos to you for noticing.

As far as this nonsense about Dean's support being in trouble, not hardly. It's still going to be about left leaning voters going Dean and right leaning voters going Clark. Kerry only figures into the fray in New Hampshire.

Clark will be expected to do well in New Hampshire, but he can survive a 3rd to Kerry, although that will deflate his momentum going into South Carolina. Dean isn't expected to do well in the South and will have plenty of wiggle room either way. If Clark fails to land a 2nd in South Carolina he's finished.

[dfong63]

29. i don't think it will work

there are too many ways for that scenario to backfire. Dean is in the lead, but does not control enough of the variables to carry out such a scheme. besides that, it's manipulative and some would say fraudulent. it actually sounds like a repub scheme. better to play it straight, and let the chips fall where they may.

[HFishbine]

37. I agree (n/t)

[KittyWampus]

31. Too Bad Dean Can't Win On His Own Merits

It must suck to have a candidate that can't even put forth a platform that a majority of Americans want or who presents a persona that they can appreciate and connect with.

[Padraig18]

33. Thank you for contributing.

:P

[Name removed]

35. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[HFishbine]

39. Quite unlike

The unimaginable wit and insight of your deep thoughts.

[slinkerwink]

36. it might or it might not work if the candidates are so closely

bunched together. Then they wouldn't help throw their votes to any other candidate. However, if Dean has a large margin of winning, and he confirms this through phone calls from his precinct captains, he might as well help Dean voters throw their votes to Kerry, but I don't think this would really be done.

[Padraig18]

38. I'm not sure it's practical, frankly.

But it is interesting to kick around. :)

[sandnsea]

41. Kerry can't possibly get 2nd on his own

:eyes:

I'm so sick of this. Isn't there any other way for Dean to win besides beating up on Kerry?

[Padraig18]

43. We're only trying to help...

:evilgrin:

[sandnsea]

49. You're the ones who need help

Your polling numbers really are not looking good. Dean is going down everywhere and it's only going to get worse as more and more people start taking a hard look at his flip-flopping, pandering and gaffes.

[Padraig18]

58. Dream on.

"President Dean" has a lovely sound to it...

[sandnsea]

61. Aw, you won't get to hear it though

So sad. :nopity:

[Padraig18]

65. Hehe.

We shall see....we shall see...:)

[MoonRiver]

42. This is silly.

Iowa is Iowa, New Hampshire is New Hampshire, South Carolina is South Carolina....................................->

You can't win with this type of second guessing. Voters look at the candidates, and Clark is looking REAL GOOD in NH and SC.

Clark's gonna take this nomination!

[iowapeacechief]

46. How to "throw" the Iowa caucuses?

I'll be a caucus chair, and I sure can't see it.

[deminflorida]

51. Wel if they can't sneak in 3500 voters then I guess this is the best

thing for them....huh....

[Padraig18]

57. No proof of that.

there is NO proof of that libelous piece of garbage.

[David Zephyr]

47. Smart Concept.

This goes to the heart of the problem with caucus contests. They, along with the electoral college are all vulnerable to gaming.

[deminflorida]

50. Everyone is missing the point here...

no strategy is going to help Dean. His recent slip in the polls means that Americans are just now starting to wake up and get a real good look at him, and what they see is not something they like. Sure because of early momentum he may squeak by in Iowa, and N.H. for that matter but by the time he reaches South Carolina, 24 days from now it is probably going to be a Clark - Edwards race in that state. My guess is that with Sharpton polling well among African Americans in S.C., Clark is going to run away with it...and from then on Dean has to hope for wins in some of the other big primary states like Michigan just to stay alive.

I think with the current momentum...Clark is going to pull a big surprise in N.H. Dean is going to lose his front runner status nationally before then.

Americans are having their coffee now and reading the Newspaper and the Dean headlines are not that motivational.

[IndianaGreen]

56. Americans support the war in Iraq too!

and all of this is based on the limited and distorted information they get from the media. I have little faith in the future of a nation that chooses to remain ignorant of the world in which it is a part of.

[Bucky]

54. Bad strategy. Here's why

If you boost Kerry to keep him up in Iowa, you may not keep Clark down in New Hampshire. Kerry's had 20 years to sell himself in that region, so he's sliding there on his own merits. But a 2nd place finish for Kerry in Iowa is a kayo for Gephardt nationwide. Yet Gephardt is far and away a stronger competitor against Clark for the role of Anti-Dean.

Kerry is not gonna translate out of his region any more. If Clark is hammered in NH, it's still just a regional loss and he can bounce back in the South and West. He'll bounce back a whole lot stronger if you knock Gephardt out of the race for him. Dean's 2nd best choice of tactics would be to knock out Kerry now and let the antiDean vote get split among Lieberman, Clark, and Gephardt across the Feb 3rd races. Dean's very best choice of tactics would be to say "screw tactics" and just go for the most number of votes he can get.

ABB. (But we're gonna beat Dean, yet. Just watch. (But if I'm wrong it's back to ABB classic).)

[Cheswick2.0]

59. Interesting theory

This is going to be so much fun. Reading DU for the last three years has been an education.

[bain_sidhe]

63. Might hurt Dean more

than it hurts Clark. But hey, it's up to you. Or him. Whatever.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

67. Wishful thinking

I can only hope alot of Dean supporters are as overconfident as you are.

[poskonig]

68. I would recommend against doing this.

We should always do our best at all times and places. I prefer to take the initiative and leave gaming to others.