Dean Tanking?

[burning bush]

Dean is up 15 point in New Hampshire, and gained a few points over night in Iowa. With Harkin's nod, Dean should get another boost, as soon as a new set of poll figures are available.

But I'm worried!

Actually, I'm not worried about Dean. I'm worried about his detractors. The loopy ones, not the ones who are logical and coherent.

In December 2004, will Dean's more frothy-mouthed critics say he tanked unless he beats Bush by more than a 20 point spread?

Will Dean have to throw a plague on Bush and 40 generations of his family, past and future, to silence this inane debate? Part Lake Superior? Break Clinton's fund raising record?

Oh...wait a sec...been there, done that -TWICE :)

I know Dean is under the front-runner microscope, but that doesn't mean we have to put up with all these imaginary boogie men, or outright lies concerning Dean, his campaign, and his success.

Everyone has a right to an opinion, but it doesn't make that opinion valid, intelligent, or even honorable. And, as we continue to see, predictions of Dean's destruction have a way of coming back to bite the hand that posted them. Ask those who were certain that Harkin could never endorse anyone but a fellow Vet.

Dean has a teflon coat over his teflon suit. Isn't that what we need when we go up against Bush?

[deminflorida]

1. Link....

???

[slinkerwink]

2. that's his opinion---why would he need a link to his opinion?

[Clark Can WIN]

42. It's his opinion that

Dean is up 15 points in NH? Since when? From what?

OK. It's my opinion that Clark is up a million zillion points in NH.

[burning bush]

45. GEEZ

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/polls_State_Polls_04.html

Dean is at 35% in New Hampshire.

His closest opponent, Clark, is at 20%. That's a difference of 15% points. Dean is up by 15%. He isn't down, nor is he tied.

I never said that Dean had gained 15% in new Hamphshire, but I did say that he had gained a few points overnight in Iowa.

Sorry for the confusion. :eyes:

[burning bush]

19. Here's your link -

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=96346

enjoy :)

[blm]

3. 70% of Dems saw thru that media-granted teflon and don't like Dean.

That does not bode well for the general.

Funny thing. The other campaigns have not fostered an animosity for each other, even when they were ahead in the polls. Think about that.

[realdem]

7. Link to those Numbers Please?

I thought he beat all others in head to head in CNN/Time

[blm]

21. The supporters of others add up.

Most are not comfortable with Dean, even with the media shoving him down our throats for most of last year.

[LuminousX]

57. Hmm, then one candidate must have greater support than Dean

Oops. Nope. Just 'creative date interpretation'.

[mzmolly]

9. Kerry has criticized Clark on two occasions of which I am aware.

And here is a prediction for you ... ready ... Kerry and Clark are going to start duking it out for second place very soon.

Remember, you heard it here. :hi:

[blm]

20. They won't lie to differentiate themselves. Big difference.

And their supporters understand that.

[maddezmom]

27. right on blm

:)

[mikewriter]

59. Dean not tanking

Him and Clark will be the last two standing although the early primaries are going to be close. I feel Gep, Kerry will be in the top four and even Lieberman will keep it close with all those moderates down south.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

40. We won't pull dirty tricks on each other - our candidates won't allow it

and neither will our campaigns. Both of these candidates have integrity....

We are repeatedly told by our campaign managers "No dirty tricks."

[JVS]

46. Time will tell. I think it will get brutal

[edzontar]

60. It;s not a matter of lying--but of spin and rhetoric...

But that's not the point--Kerry has to bring down Clark before he can get at Dean..while Clark has to m ake sure Kerry doesn't begin to recover...

I think it is correct to anticipate some sparks between them soon...

[Andromeda]

11. Link?

:evilgrin:

[Terwilliger]

12. link?

anything?

[blm]

23. Adding up numbers of others.

.

[Terwilliger]

ok...links?

You said 70% of Dems actually don't like Dean

COME ON!!! Give me a break.

[blm]

36. They PREFER another candidate.

Sorry, if you don't care for the way I added it up, but for right now about 70% do support others even though the bandwagon has been rolled out for Dean accompanied by a full drum corps of the press since last spring.

[JVS]

48. Using that method, you're candidate is even more disliked

If you support Kerry, then about 88-94% of people dislike him.
If you support Clark, then about 82-88% of people dislike him.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

15. Yep. Kerry, Clark, Edwards, Gep, Kucinich, Sharpton - are mostly united.

Perhaps Dean needs to learn how to play well with others. If he can't get along with Democrats - how is he going to get along with the rest of the world and even Congress. I don't care to go through more fighting and squabbling. I'd like to see a statesman - like Clinton. All of the candidates have that BUT Dean. Even Dennis Kucinich gets along better with other Dems than Dean - even though he would certainly have the right to be disgusted with them.

[1floridademocrat]

49. **OPINION ALERT***

This has no basis in fact, is pure opinion, and represents a personal projection based on the fact that YOU don't like Dean. Thank you, this has been a message from the "OPINIONS AREN'T FACTS" patrol of DU.

[dfong63]

52. according to your logic, even more of dems don't like Clark

nice double standard. add up all non-Dean supporters, but forget to add up all the non-Clark supporters.

no matter how you slice it, Dean is in the lead.

[burning bush]

53. oops!

simple truth, simply stated :)

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[maddezmom]

10. way to turn off a whole lot voters in the general election.

[RetroLounge]

16. You think that one comment here in this thread

will turn off a bunch of Voters?

Get real...

[maddezmom]

17. I'm real

it the attitude of the some on campaign, not just here at DU.

[Rose Siding]

39. Link?

If you want to take a punch, you better be able to back it up.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

41. Supporters of ALL of the campaigns are disgusted with DeanCo.

not just Clarks.

[1floridademocrat]

50. Wow.. another..

Pure opinion. Once again.. I swear, I'm going to start a "truth in posting" campaign around here..

[MIMStigator]

5. hes still behind Clark in match-ups to *

he's fizzling out

[Sean Reynolds]

6. Not from what I've seen.

Most polls show Dean does best against Bush.

[MIMStigator]

8. here is the recent one

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=88925&mesg_id=88925

[Sean Reynolds]

14. Here's an updated one. SHOWING Dean doing better than Clark!

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Jan. 8-9, 2004. N=842 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

George W. Bush - 51%
Howard Dean - 43%

George W. Bush - 50%
Wesley Clark - 41%

It's close, but Dean gets more votes than Clark.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[sandnsea]

13. Down since December

Down in ARG, down in Survey 2000, down in the CNN/USA Today/Gallup. Dean just had that cheap Walmart teflon. For real teflon you have to get out the tried and true stuff, John Kerry.

[burning bush]

18. Are you serious?

Kerry has a teflon lining?

Are you serious?

I...have no response to that!

[sandnsea]

22. Is he still here??

After Dean spent an entire year and millions of dollars ripping him to shreds?? He's still here. Yep, that's some teflon.

[pasadenaboy]

25. Kerry went from front runner to 4th place

Kerry's main source of money is his own millions. how can we trust him to run a good campaign against Bush when he can't even maintatin a lead in his own primary? He isn't a good fundraiser, either.

Kerry is a good senator, but he has ran an incredibly innept campaign. He would need to really turn it around to convince me he has what it takes to take on Bush.

[sandnsea]

29. Dean's money isn't helping him

Money isn't everything, obviously. Dean needed to be the frontrunner for a while in order to get the media scrutiny to expose him. That happened. Now Kerry is turning it back on and regaining his lost ground. Just watch. He's running an amazing campaign, he really is.

[burning bush]

32. OK, If Kerry can pull this out of his hat at this point, he's deserves it

But I don't see ANY evidence of that happening.

[sandnsea]

55. It's amazing he's still in it

Gephardt has the unions. Clark has the DLC. Dean has the anti-war upper income liberals. The fact that Kerry is even still in this is an absolute testament to his ability to win the whole thing against Bush. He is made of steel and fights to his dying breath.

[pasadenaboy]

33. If Kerry can turn this around and get the nomination

He has totally proved me wrong, and I will have a lot of confidence in him for the general election. I will work and give money to him.

I hope whomever our nominee is, he comes out of this process strong, with a unified party behind him.

[sandnsea]

56. Kerry is best situated to do that

He has strong support all the way from the envionmental left to the center. He can unify the party more quickly than anybody and is also perfectly situated to against Bush because he simply knows the most about that band of monsters. He'll take us where we want to go and if people weren't so mule-headed they'd already be behind him. We're donkeys, not jack-asses.

[Eloriel]

58. Will he unify the party by renunciating his IWR vote?

'Cause I've said for many months now, that's precisely what it would take for me to give him any credence, and I know I'm not alone.

Eloriel

[blm]

37. Kerry was never the frontrunner. The press wouldn't let him be.

They refused to cover major speeches at the VFW and major endorsements like the Fire Fighters which was especially significant post 9-11 and hurt Bush the most. But we all heard about Joan Jett endorsing Dean, didn't we.

[AndyTiedye]

26. We Need A Landslide or We LOSE

> In December 2004, will Dean's more frothy-mouthed critics say he
> tanked unless he beats *Bush* by more than a 20 point spread?

Yes, because if he doesn't win by a lot more than that
he will get Diebolded and Bush will "win" again.

The only way we can win this election is to get so far ahead that
Bush* can't steal it.

[sandnsea]

31. Dean is sliding in the polls

He just is. He got a good galloping lead and came under the kind of press scrutiny he always should have had. Now that people see who he really is, they're looking for an alternative. Clark or Kerry. That'll be the battleground. And I'm not remotely worried about Clark or Kerry against Bush. They have a chance. Dean has none. People don't want a candidate who is soft on security, they already proved that in the 2002 election.

[burning bush]

34. What you are seeing is a natural tightening

as the undecideds decide.

Now, If Dean came into the race in the top three, and ended up where he is, you may say that he hasn't done much with what he has been given.

But Dean came into the race near the bottom. Now, he sits at the top. Comfortably at the top, but not lazily.

Dean has the edge everywhere, in insider support, in outsider support, in Independent support, in Democratic support, in money, and in strategy. More than that, he has the grass roots power to run in every state, and polls show he does the best against Bush.

And Dean has done that while the other candidate ravage him. The guy is a winner, admit it.

You're acting desperate.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

44. They won't even mention Kerry's name - even when he was in the lead.

He's been screwed over big time. Guess you have to act obnoxious in order to get media attention... quite sad, really.

[Bucky]

24. 20 point spread. Hmmm, interesting choice of words.

[burning bush]

30. OK I'll bite

why such an interesting choice of words....?

[HFishbine]

43. Would an 8 point spread be more to your liking?

Bush: 51
Dean: 43

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[patricia92243]

28. The Republican fear should show you who to vote for

[liberalnurse]

35. Dean is the only Democrat that can go up against

the *bush regime.......and crush him publicly and at the polls.

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

38. New Poll: Newsweek Jan 8-9....Clark drops 3, Dean gains against Bush

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

Dean now leads all contenders against Bush.


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[kerry-is-my-prez]

47. AP Poll - Clark doing best vs. Bush (by large margin)

http://www.tribnet.com/24hour/politics/story/1113799p-7761568c.html

AP-Ipsos poll Jan. 5-7: Bush Wins; Clark Best Head to Head


Wesley Clark by 49-42 (by 7)
Howard Dean by 54-39 (by 15)
John Kerry by 54-37 (by 17)
Dick Gephardt by 56-35 (by 21)

[burning bush]

51. The Newsweek Poll is More Recent

Newsweek - Jan 8-10
AP/IPSOS - Jan 5-7

[slinkerwink]

54. and thus more reliable

[burning bush]

61. Thanks Slinkerwink ...

that would be the important piece of info that I left out. :silly:

More recent and more reliable.

[demothinker]

62. Bunk

If the polls were 1 month apart, or even two weeks, I would say that the more recent poll was more reliable. But 3 days? Are we to believe that sentiments changed so quickly. No, it's probably just normal variance between polls due to methodology. Believe whichever one you want, but one's not more reliable than the other due to time.