New National Poll: Kerry & Gephardt on the Rise

[HFishbine]

Newsweek Poll
Jan. 8 - 9
(Previous poll, 12/18 - 19)

Dean: 24 (26)
Clark: 12 (15)
Gephardt: 12 (5)
Kerry: 11 (6)
Lieberman: 7 (7)
Sharpton: 5 (7)
Moseley Braun: 4 (1)
Edwards: 3 (5)
Kucinich: 3 (1)

Other: 1 (2)
None: 3 (5)
Don't know: 15 (20)

N=357 registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic nationwide. MoE ± 6.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[Sean Reynolds]

1. Clark's tanking.

;-)

[slinkerwink]

2. Dean's tanking----by 2 points, but Clark tanked further by 3 points

;-)

[Cheswick2.0]

11. I am really bad at math, but couldn't you say

That Clark is tanking by 1 and 1/2 times more than Dean?

[HFishbine]

20. Moseley Braun

Quadrupled her support. (Hey, you never know.)

[Cheswick2.0]

24. I'd say she was the real success story here

forget the Gephardt ascendant!

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Sean Reynolds]

16. Tanking was used by Clark supporters about Dean.

Just havin' some fun with 'em.

[BootinUp]

3. Looks more like people are desperate

for an alternative to Dean.

[Sean Reynolds]

6. And yet they're not going to Clark.

Being he lost 3 points in this newest poll.

[BootinUp]

12. single candidate fluctuations

when they are small 1-3 probably don't mean much when you've got so many candidates. What I mean is that there really isn't a consensus building yet. It could still be Dean, or Clark or maybe another. Dean is still in the best position, unless you consider momentum, in which case it is hard to call anyone a favorite.

[DeanIsAPitbull]

4. LMAO @ Clark

He's tanking.

[mot78]

5. Pre-Iowa bounce

:shrug:

[Sean Reynolds]

21. Wait until the post-Iowa bounce.

And then the post-NH bounce, which will push Dean into a HUGE lead.

[lancdem]

7. Except for Dean in the lead

the national polls are fluid, it seems. At this point, I think the upcoming primary polls are more important.

[WindRavenX]

8. JK is down but not out

He's gonna suprise everyone, I can feel it!
JK all the way baby!

[HFishbine]

9. A three-way tie for second

I didn't really notice that when I was posting. This could be a looong primary season folks.

[lancdem]

18. I don't think it will stay this clogged

once the primaries start. The field will be winnowed out pretty quickly.

[sandnsea]

10. Tie for 2nd!

That's my guy! (Dean on the downhill slide.)

[Sean Reynolds]

14. Clark on a bigger downhill slide.

Dean lost only two points, even though he's been hammered almost 24/7. Clark's lost THREE points.

[pasadenaboy]

15. that gephardt number is amazing

what caused hsis support to more than double?

Glad Braun and Dennis are up. They deserve to do well, even though they aren't my candidate.

[HFishbine]

22. About that Gephardt Number

The previous poll number may have been an anomoly -- too low. Here's Gep's polling history from the Newsweek poll (newest to oldest):

12 5 10 9 9 8 8 10 10 14 13

[Cheswick2.0]

25. I would say that 5 percent was , ....what do they call it

an out-lier?

[WillyBrandt]

17. Talk about a worthless poll!

A _nationwide_ poll--totally ignoring the structure of the primaries--that polls 357 people for an MOE of 6%.

Early primary states have the only polls that matter. They will affect how the rest of the primary season plays out; these tell us nothing--except, perhaps, that those who are at the low end of both national and early state polls truly have no hope. (Lieberman on down...)

[Sean Reynolds]

How about you tell that to Clark supporters?

They've been whoring out that CNN poll all week now as proof that Dean's tanking and Clark is rising.

[realdem]

19. Dean's low Negs show Gallup POll Aberration

"Still, only 17 percent of them have an unfavorable opinion of the former Vermont governor, compared with the 59 percent who say they view him favorably."

[Auntie Bush]

23. This poll was posted at Kos

V
AP Poll Shows Clark Emerging As The Democrat With Best Chance Against Bush
by Rob
Sat Jan 10th, 2004 at 19:50:21 GMT


The newly released AP-Ipsos national poll shows Wesley Clark emerging as the Democratic candidate who would have the best chance of defeating Bush. In head to head matchups Clark is only 7 points behind Bush. The poll analysis shows "Bush is in significantly better shape with the public than either Clinton or the first President Bush were at this stage in their re-election bids and about the same as Ronald Reagan before his landslide re-election victory in 1984."

In head to head matchups with other Democratic candidates Bush is 15 points ahead of Dean, 17 points ahead of Kerry, and 21 points ahead of Gephardt. The AP-Ipsos poll of 1,000 adults, including 774 registered voters, was taken Jan. 5-7 and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. AP-Ipsos shows that Clark would be the only candidate would break into the overwhelming lead that Dean has in certain demographic groups and could hold Bush to under 50%. The poll analysis indicates "men, evangelicals and rural voters are supporting Bush by big margins".

Bush 49%
Clark 42%

Bush 54%
Dean 39%

Bush 54%
Kerry 37%

Bush 56%
Gephardt 35%


Rob is the founder and editor of the progressive news site robwire.com and is a frequent contributor to rob.dailykos.com

[HFishbine]

27. And then there's this:

From yesterday's Newsweek poll:

George W Bush - 50%
Richard Gephardt - 43%

George W Bush - 51%
Howard Dean - 43%

George W Bush - 50%
Wes Clark - 41%

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[WI_DEM]

26. nice to see Dean maintaining a 2-1 lead nationally

in this poll.

[Progressive420]

28. 357 is the sampling?

this poll shouldnt be taken seriuosly by anyone 357 is way to small a sampling to get any real accurate view of things

[HFishbine]

29. The margin of error

is +/- 6%, as noted.

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

30. Considering the week Dean has had, this is GREAT news, indeed.

Clark loses more than Dean after a week like this? Wow.

[windansea]

31. polling thread...yummy!

first of all I invented the word tanking..nobody else can use it!

second..the AP poll is better...cuz it just is

funny how the newsweek poll has completely diferent favorables/unfavorables for Dean....

must be that hurry up Harkin endorsement??

:crazy: